成人小说亚洲一区二区三区,亚洲国产精品一区二区三区,国产精品成人精品久久久,久久综合一区二区三区,精品无码av一区二区,国产一级a毛一级a看免费视频,欧洲uv免费在线区一二区,亚洲国产欧美中日韩成人综合视频,国产熟女一区二区三区五月婷小说,亚洲一区波多野结衣在线

立即打開(kāi)
What if interest rates don't rise?

What if interest rates don't rise?

Colin Barr 2010年03月31日

????Here's a shocker: It could be years before U.S. finances are jolted by an interest rate shock.

????Some forecasters are banking on rising interest rates. The Federal Reserve has kept its key short-term rate near zero since December 2008, but many economists believe a rate hike could take place as soon as later this year.

????Credit rating agency Moody's said last week the price the government pays to borrow money for five years will nearly double between now and 2012. It warned that rising debt costs could constrain government policy in coming years. A bond market selloff Wednesday only intensified those concerns.

????Yet even with governments around the globe issuing new debt at a record clip, interest rates may stay low for some time. Risk-averse investors are seeking out income-producing bonds and policymakers around the world are struggling to shore up domestic employment.

????That's good in the short term, as low rates would help extend the current recovery and ease one source of pressure on the stretched federal budget.

????At the same time, some warn that stable interest rates could create a replay of the housing bust, by letting Congress put off overdue action on the deteriorating U.S. fiscal position.

????"We might hope that financial markets would save us from catastrophe by demanding higher interest rates on Treasurys, but that would require a degree of foresight that we haven't seen lately," Syracuse University budget expert Leonard Burman told a House Ways and Means Committee panel earlier this week.

????Indeed, market players are showing increasing confidence that rates won't rise any time soon. The spread on a 10-year interest rate swap, reflecting the price an issuer of floating-rate bonds might pay to lock in a fixed rate, turned negative this week for the first time.

????"I keep expecting a normalization, but the market is convinced the Fed is not going to do it," said Howard Simons, a strategist at Bianco Research in Chicago, about when the Fed might boost short-term rates.

????In part, that's because a sustained recovery isn't in evidence at the moment, to say the least.

????Unemployment remains near 10%, and inflation -- widely considered the great threat arising out of government support for the economy -- is not only low but falling.

????Consumer prices excluding food and energy rose just 1.3% in the year ended in February, the government said this month. That number is even lower if you look at the latest six months of data, said Joseph Gagnon, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

????Anxious to avoid a replay of Japan's deflationary lost decades, the Fed could come under pressure in the second half of this year to expand its purchases of long-term bonds if the rate of inflation keeps falling, Gagnon said.

????"The Fed is going to tighten much later than people seem to think," he said.

????The Fed isn't the only factor. Two market crashes in the past 10 years have soured many investors on stocks for good. Huge sums of money have poured into bond funds over the past year, bolstering prices in the face of a massive increase in supply.

????The bond vigilantes have visited Ireland and Greece, selling European bonds and pushing their rates higher. But some doubt they are in any hurry to lay siege to the market for U.S. government bonds. After all, they have to keep their money somewhere.

????"To flee from something you need an alternative," said Simons. "Your alternatives now are what, exactly?"

????What's more, policymakers both here and abroad have incentives to keep funds flowing into the United States.

????Though U.S. borrowing and China's undervalued currency are widely viewed as unsustainable, the current arrangement suits both parties at a time when both fear any setback could halt a weak recovery.

????"Rates may stay low because our foreign lenders have an incentive to keep enabling our borrowing habit," Burman told the House panel Tuesday. "The money they lend us fuels our giant trade deficit, which in turn props up their economies."

????That cycle could ultimately lead to a re-enactment of the housing bust, in which the bond market remains placid until a crisis makes credit all but unobtainable -- ultimately forcing massive, indiscriminate government spending cutbacks and another economic downturn.

????Even if it doesn't come to that, Japan's lost decades show that low-rate policies are far from foolproof. Japanese 10-year notes recently yielded 1.35% and haven't been above 2.15% in more than a decade, Simons noted.

????"Did anyone think Japan would still be stuck here in 2010?" he asked.

掃碼打開(kāi)財(cái)富Plus App
最近免费中文字幕大全高清MV| 狠狠躁天天躁中文字幕天码| 97碰碰碰人妻无码视| 国产成人精品一二区| 文视频欧美黑人又粗又大久久久| 人妻无码一区二区三区av| 国产内射999视频一区| 亚洲乱理伦片在线观看中字| 亚洲人成网址在线播放狼友| 国产毛片久久久久久国产毛片| 久久精品亚洲中文字幕无码麻豆| 亚洲午夜精品国产电影在线观看| 欧美FREESEX黑人又粗又大| 99久久精品免费热37| 最新亚洲春色AV无码专区| 无毒不卡在线观看无需下载| 国产香蕉九九久久精品免费| 久久综合九色欧美综合狠狠| 高清无码精品综合一区二区三区色片| 竹菊影视欧美日韩一区二区三区四区| 久久综合九色欧美综合狠狠| WWW国产精品人妻一二三区| 亚洲一区二区三区在线播放| 国产在线视频国产永久2021| 熟年交尾五十路视频在线播放| 道具抽插骚穴跳蛋玩弄奶头| 岳的又肥又大水多啊喷了视频| 日韩欧美视频一区二区在线观看| 国产精品自在自线视频| 日韩欧美视频一区二区在线观看| 光棍影院一级毛片视频| 国产人成无码视频在线观看| 久久精品女人天堂AV| 无码无套少妇毛多69XXX| 国偷自产AV一区二区三区接| 免费大片黄在线观看视频动漫真人3d日韩国产| 成人性生交大片免费看京东小视频| 欧美日韩中文人妻一区| 国产日韩在线亚洲字幕中文| 亚洲AV无码之国产精品网址| 国产精品无码AⅤ在线观看播放|