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沙特能否拯救油市?

沙特能否拯救油市?

Colin Barr 2011-02-28
全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的命運(yùn)可能取決于世界第一大石油出口國(guó)——沙特能否增加其石油產(chǎn)量。不過(guò)沙特究竟能否生產(chǎn)那么多原油,現(xiàn)在還不清楚。

????上周二,暴亂橫掃利比亞,導(dǎo)致國(guó)際油價(jià)飆升。利比亞是全球第18大石油生產(chǎn)國(guó),利比亞動(dòng)亂預(yù)示該國(guó)石油開(kāi)采可能中斷。

????Oil prices spiked Tuesday as violence swept Libya, raising the prospect that the world's 18th-biggest oil producer could be taken off line.

令人震驚,但不太嚇人?/?Shock, but no awe

????為了緩解國(guó)際社會(huì)對(duì)石油供應(yīng)震蕩的恐懼,石油輸出國(guó)組織(OPEC)承諾將在必要的時(shí)候動(dòng)用石油儲(chǔ)備,并增加產(chǎn)量。不過(guò)國(guó)際能源署(The International Energy Agency)表示:“從目前的處境來(lái)看,這一舉措并不必要。”

????盡管如此,投資者顯然還是希望石油輸出國(guó)組織能夠挺身而出,在油價(jià)上漲到更高位前,能有所作為。上周二,原油期貨交易價(jià)格在紐約達(dá)到了98美元,在倫敦更是達(dá)到了107美元,這也是自2008年以來(lái)的最高水平。美國(guó)的汽油價(jià)格近來(lái)在略高于3美元(每加侖)的價(jià)格區(qū)間浮動(dòng),不過(guò)現(xiàn)在看來(lái),汽油價(jià)格有望在今年夏天上漲到3.5美元甚至更高。

????經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家愛(ài)德華?亞德尼上周二在他的博客上寫道:“我預(yù)期石油輸出國(guó)組織將生產(chǎn)更多的石油,以避免油價(jià)的飆升。他們應(yīng)盡力減少能源價(jià)格上漲所導(dǎo)致的全球不穩(wěn)定性,這也符合他們的利益?!?/p>

????沒(méi)人懷疑亞德尼的邏輯。不過(guò)有石油觀察人士質(zhì)疑道:石油輸出國(guó)組織是否有能力提高石油產(chǎn)量,并在較長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間內(nèi)保持這種高產(chǎn)量?

????對(duì)于石油輸出國(guó)組織的產(chǎn)能的質(zhì)疑主要集中沙特阿拉伯身上。沙特阿拉伯是世界上最大的石油出口國(guó),2009年,沙特生產(chǎn)的石油占全球石油產(chǎn)量的12%,而且這還不算它的閑置產(chǎn)能。沙特預(yù)計(jì)其閑置產(chǎn)能大約在每天200萬(wàn)桶左右,不過(guò)美國(guó)政府表示,沙特的閑置產(chǎn)能要“遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于”這個(gè)目標(biāo)。

????這些言論表明,嚴(yán)重依賴于石油的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)不必因?yàn)樯现艿挠蛢r(jià)飆升而過(guò)分擔(dān)憂。

????不過(guò)并非所有人都相信這些話。杰弗里?布朗是美國(guó)達(dá)拉斯地區(qū)的一位石油工程師,他就對(duì)沙特能滿足全球石油需求的論調(diào)表示懷疑。

????OPEC sought to ease fears of a supply shock, promising to release reserves and increase production if need be. The International Energy Agency said "we are not in a situation where that is necessary."

????Even so, investors are clearly expecting OPEC to step into the breach soon before oil prices rise further. Futures contracts hit $98 in New York Tuesday and $107 in London – the highest level since 2008. Gasoline prices, recently in the low $3-and-change range, look poised to run to $3.50 or higher this summer.

????"I still expect that OPEC nations will pump more oil to avert a spike in oil prices," economist Ed Yardeni wrote Tuesday on his blog. "It is in their interest to do what they can to reduce global instability caused by higher fuel prices."

????No one doubts his logic. But some oil watchers question whether OPEC is actually capable of boosting production and keeping it there for a long time.

????The questions about OPEC's capacity center on the world's biggest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia. The Saudis accounted for 12% of global oil production in 2009, and that doesn't count their spare capacity. Saudi Arabia estimates that buffer at 2 million barrels a day, though the U.S. government says Saudi spare capacity is "well above" that stated target.

????Those comments suggest an oil-addicted global economy has little to worry about from this week's price spike.

????But not everyone is convinced. Jeffrey Brown, a Dallas-area petroleum engineer, questions the assumption that the Saudis can meet the world's needs.

????He notes that Saudi production has declined in three of the four years since it peaked at middecade – including an 11% plunge in 2009. At the same time, Saudi oil consumption has soared, making it the 15th-biggest petroleum consumer as of 2008, according to U.S. government data.

沙特的油井一切還好嗎??/?Is all well at the Saudi wells?

????布朗指出,沙特的產(chǎn)量在2005年左右達(dá)到頂峰,而在此后的四年里,有三年都出現(xiàn)了下降,在2009年甚至下降了11%。與此同時(shí),沙特的石油消費(fèi)卻出現(xiàn)了激增。根據(jù)美國(guó)政府的數(shù)據(jù),自2008年以來(lái),沙特已經(jīng)成了全球第15大石油消費(fèi)國(guó)。

????布朗預(yù)計(jì)今年沙特的石油消費(fèi)量將達(dá)到每天300萬(wàn)桶,比2005年增長(zhǎng)50%。目前全世界對(duì)石油的需求越來(lái)越大,而沙特國(guó)內(nèi)每消費(fèi)一桶原油,就意味著它可供出口的原油又減少了一桶。

????這意味著沙特要想把出口恢復(fù)到2005年左右的全盛水平,就必須要扭轉(zhuǎn)幾年以來(lái)的下跌趨勢(shì),創(chuàng)造新的產(chǎn)量紀(jì)錄。

????要想達(dá)到2005年每天出口910萬(wàn)桶原油的紀(jì)錄,沙特在2011年必須每天生產(chǎn)1210萬(wàn)桶原油。這幾乎比沙特最高年產(chǎn)量還多出10%。

????這可是一筆大“訂單”,不過(guò)目前并沒(méi)有特別跡象表明沙特可以執(zhí)行這筆“訂單”。這似乎暗示了油價(jià)還會(huì)繼續(xù)上漲,這對(duì)恢復(fù)之勢(shì)甚為疲軟的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)來(lái)說(shuō)可不是好消息,因?yàn)槊绹?guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的恢復(fù)是建立在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勢(shì)增長(zhǎng)的基礎(chǔ)上的。

????石油輸出國(guó)組織能否長(zhǎng)期保持高產(chǎn),這個(gè)已經(jīng)讓石油觀察人士困擾了一段時(shí)間的問(wèn)題,可能明年就會(huì)見(jiàn)分曉。如果屆時(shí)結(jié)果正如布朗所預(yù)料的那樣,那么油價(jià)還會(huì)漲得更高。

????布朗表示:“如果其它石油國(guó)家的生產(chǎn)也受到了干擾——但不是在沙特阿拉伯,那么最終我們可能會(huì)明確地得知,沙特究竟可以在可持續(xù)的基礎(chǔ)上生產(chǎn)多少原油?!辈贿^(guò)從最近的中東局勢(shì)看來(lái),就連這一點(diǎn)也不能保證。

????譯者:樸成奎

????Brown estimates Saudi consumption will hit 3 million barrels a day this year – up 50% from 2005. Every barrel consumed at home is one the Saudis cannot export to fill booming demand for fuel.

????That means the Saudis will have reverse years of decline and, indeed, set new production records just to bring their exports back to levels regularly seen during the good old days of the middle of the past decade.

????In order to simply match their 2005 export peak of 9.1 million barrels a day, the Saudis would have to pump 12.1 million barrels a day in 2011. That's almost 10% above the kingdom's highest output for a year.

????That is a pretty big order to fill, with no particular sign that the Saudis can fill it. Those numbers seem to point toward higher oil prices, which is not good news for a weak U.S. recovery predicated on strong global growth.

????The next year may also bring the answer to a question that has puzzled petrol watchers for some time. If the answer is the one Brown is expecting, even higher prices look like a good bet.

????"We might finally find out for sure what the Saudis can produce on a sustained basis," Brown says, "if there are production disruptions elsewhere, but not in Saudi Arabia." And the way things are going in the Middle East lately, even that is no sure thing.

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