????由于紐約證券交易所（New York Stock Exchange）的命運仍然懸而未決，關(guān)于華爾街之魂的爭奪戰(zhàn)還在繼續(xù)。紐交所試圖以100億美元將自身出售給德國的德意志交易所（Deutsche B?rse），此舉需要在今后數(shù)月中通過嚴(yán)苛的監(jiān)管審查，可能會令這筆交易陷入繁文縟節(jié)之中。

????一些人擔(dān)心這筆擬議的合并案以及正在進行的其他交易所合并案可能會導(dǎo)致股票市場更加動蕩，他們認(rèn)為也許會再次出現(xiàn)“閃崩”或者更糟糕的情況。

????但是，自紐交所鼎盛時期以來，交易業(yè)務(wù)已經(jīng)發(fā)生翻天覆地的變化。實際上，本次紐交所-德交所交易與股票交易關(guān)系不大，倒是與交易所保持競爭優(yōu)勢所需要的業(yè)務(wù)其他部分——技術(shù)和衍生品關(guān)系更大。

????的確，紐交所的股票交易量僅占美國股票交易總量的24%左右，低于15年前的70%。這是由于十年前美國政府下令，允許其他交易所交易在紐交所上市的股票。目前有50多家新興交易所可以促成股票交易，所需的費用遠(yuǎn)低于紐交所。

????但是利潤率如此之低，以至于即便在群雄割據(jù)的新興平臺中，其中的主要交易所也已開始進行合并。最大的新興交易所之一——BATS上月宣布正在收購競爭對手Chi-X ，以打造一個規(guī)模更大的平臺。這兩家交易所均擁有相當(dāng)龐大的股票市場份額，經(jīng)費開支也極低，因此它們可以轉(zhuǎn)而提供更低的交易費，從而贏得競爭。

????與此同時，希望使大量交易擺脫市場視線的投資者正日漸轉(zhuǎn)投所謂的“暗池”，以便他們進行交易。這些交易平臺大多由投資銀行運營，交易量占美股交易量的12%左右。規(guī)范這一領(lǐng)域的各種措施正在實施當(dāng)中，但華爾街繼續(xù)選擇利用這些秘密的交易所，使自身活動不為普通大眾所知。

未來的交易所

????數(shù)年來，紐交所已擴大業(yè)務(wù)范圍，以彌補部分由股票交易量減少造成的虧損。該交易所將其交易技術(shù)出售給諸如卡塔爾證券交易所等其他規(guī)模稍小的交易所，同時還銷售市場數(shù)據(jù)。這是該交易所僅有的增長領(lǐng)域之一，2010年營收較2009年同期增長22%。此項業(yè)務(wù)的利潤占紐交所2010年總利潤的16%。與此同時，來自公司上市和交易執(zhí)行業(yè)務(wù)的利潤只占該交易所2010年利潤的13%。

????盡管德意志交易所無疑將歡迎紐交所帶來的營收，但真正的精華在于衍生品領(lǐng)域。衍生品交易費2010年增長14%，達到8.26億美元，占紐交所凈營收總額的三分之一和利潤的40%。紐交所擁有位于歐洲的強大衍生品平臺Liffe，而德交所擁有歐洲期貨交易所（Eurex）的一半股權(quán)，后者是全球最大的衍生品交易所，也以歐洲交易為主。與股票不同，衍生品通常是與交易所掛鉤的預(yù)訂合約。這意味著這些交易產(chǎn)生的收入基本不會被市場新入者搶走。 由于新規(guī)定最終強制要求絕大多數(shù)場外衍生品通過交易所結(jié)清，預(yù)計衍生品市場今后數(shù)年將出現(xiàn)增長。

????繼紐約商品交易所和芝加哥商品交易所同意剝離其金屬業(yè)務(wù)之后，美國監(jiān)管部門允許了這兩家美國最大的期貨交易所在2008年進行合并。在歐洲可能也會出現(xiàn)類似情況，歐洲監(jiān)管部門可能希望紐交所和德交所剝離一部分歐洲衍生品業(yè)務(wù)。這也許會稍稍傷及本次交易存在的理由，但不會破壞交易。

“通往美國衰落之路的指示牌”

????不過，在見識過“閃崩”的危害后，監(jiān)管部門可能對交易所合并更為敏感。因為交易過程簡化、費用降低會加劇市場的波動性，并導(dǎo)致惡性市場事件。

????例如，芝加哥商品交易所(CME)本周就宣布，對于其兩項產(chǎn)品——歐洲銀行美元定期存款和美國國債期貨的保證金標(biāo)準(zhǔn)可能下降65%， 此舉與紐交所Liffe交易所采取的一項類似措施相一致。這兩家交易所與銀行共同采用的跨市場保證金擔(dān)保，將允許交易員以少得多的資金投出更大的賭注。而市場中杠桿率上升會導(dǎo)致交易員輕率投注，并造成重大市場波動。

????美國特拉華州前任民主黨參議員泰德?考夫曼在其任職2年期間倡導(dǎo)市場改革，他在閃崩發(fā)生當(dāng)天對《財富》表示：“各交易所爭相降低標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，越來越多的迎合高頻率交易者 ，這已經(jīng)成為一項利潤率極低的業(yè)務(wù)?？雌饋砦覀兯坪鯇⒂瓉硪徊ㄈ蚪灰姿喜岢?，在美國證券交易委員會（SEC）確定自己對市場的看法之前，這些合并將再次重塑市場結(jié)構(gòu)格局。”

????到目前為止，阻止合并的理由主要是擔(dān)心大量美國股票交易落入外國人之手。但美國政府官員已經(jīng)出面表示，本次交易或許不會造成安全威脅，從而使監(jiān)管部門在作決斷時難以提出這條理由 。

????考夫曼最近取代伊麗莎白?沃倫出任不良資產(chǎn)救助計劃（TARP）國會監(jiān)督委員會主席一職，他認(rèn)為“這遠(yuǎn)不止是在合并后的公司名稱 里，‘紐約證券交易所’這幾個字是排在前面還是后面的問題。如果我們不停下來，恢復(fù)美國市場的可信度，這就是通往美國衰落之路的指示牌?！?/p>

????但并不清楚是否能采取任何措施，停止交易所領(lǐng)域的合并。倫敦證券交易所正對多倫多證券交易所進行收購，而新加坡交易所正試圖收購澳大利亞證券交易所。圍繞其他潛在兼并的傳聞還有芝加哥商品交易所、納斯達克(NASDAQ)的母公司和其他交易所搶購規(guī)模較小的交易所。當(dāng)然，監(jiān)管部門可以叫停兼并狂潮，但眼下他們恐怕沒有理由這么做。

????The battle for the soul of Wall Street continues as the fate of the New York Stock Exchange remains up in the air. The NYSE's tentative $10 billion sale to Germany's Deutsche B?rse will need to pass through a regulatory gauntlet in the next few months, which could ensnarl the deal in red tape.

????Some fear that the proposed tie-up, along with a number of other exchange mergers in the works, could lead to a more volatile marketplace for equities, which they believe could lead to another "flash crash" or something even worse.

????But the business of trading has changed dramatically since the NYSE's heyday. In fact, the NYSE-Deutsche B?rse deal has less to do with equity trading than it does with other parts of the business the exchanges need to maintain a competitive advantage: technology and derivatives.

????Indeed, the NYSE only trades around 24% of the volume of US equities, down from 70% 15 years ago. That's thanks to a government directive a decade ago that allowed other exchanges to trade NYSE-listed stocks. There are now over 50 alternative exchanges that can facilitate equity trades much cheaper than the NYSE (NYX).

????The margins are so low that even elements in the fragmented world of alternative platforms have started to merge. BATS, one of the largest alternative exchanges, announced last month that it was acquiring rival Chi-X to create an even larger platform. Both have sizable chunks of the equity markets and extremely low overhead, so they may move to offer even lower transaction fees to fight off the competition.

????Meanwhile, investors that want to move large blocks of trades out of the sight of the market are increasingly turning to so-called 'dark pools' to facilitate their trades. These trading platforms, run mostly by investment banks, trade around 12% of US equities volume. Moves to regulate this space are afoot, but Wall Street continues to turn to these stealth exchanges to cover their activities from the general public.

The exchange of the future

????The Big Board has branched out over the years for make up for some of the loss of income from equity volume. It sells its trading technology to other smaller exchanges, like the Qatar stock exchange, and it also sells market data. It's one of the only areas of growth for the company, with revenues up 22% in 2010 over the same period in 2009. The business represented 16% of the NYSE's profits in 2010. Fees from listing companies and executing trades, meanwhile, comprised just 13% of the company's profit for 2010.

????While the Deutsche B?rse will certainly welcome those revenue streams from the NYSE, the real gem is in the derivatives space. Fees from derivatives trading were up 14% in 2010 to $826 million, comprising a third of the NYSE's total net revenue ad 40% of its profits. The NYSE owns Liffe, a powerful derivatives platform based in Europe, while the German exchange owns half of Eurex, the largest derivatives exchange in the world, which also focuses on European trades. Unlike equities, derivatives are usually bespoke contracts tethered to exchanges. That means the revenue stream from these trades is somewhat protected from new entrants into the market. The market for derivatives is expected to grow in the coming years as new regulations eventually force most over-the-counter derivatives to clear through an exchange.

????The US regulators allowed the two largest futures exchanges in the US -- the New York Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange -- to merge in 2008 after the two agreed to spin off their metals business. Something similar could happen in Europe, where regulators might want the two to divest part of their European derivatives businesses. That could hurt the deal's raison d'etre a bit, but it probably won't kill it.

"A signpost on the road to American decline"

????But in the post "flash crash" world, there is a chance regulators could be a bit more sensitive to exchange tie-ups. Making it easier and cheaper to trade could bring more volatility to the market and lead to undesirable market events.

????For example, the CME (CME) announced this week that the margin requirements on two of its products, eurodollars and US Treasury bond futures, could fall by 65%, matching a similar move by NYSE's Liffe exchange. And the cross-margining guarantee that both exchanges are employing with banks will allow traders to make bigger bets with far less money. The increased leverage in the markets could lead to reckless betting by traders and lead to major market volatility.

????"More and more, the exchanges, in a kind of rush to the bottom, have to cater to the high frequency traders, and it has become a very low margin business," Ted Kaufman, the former Democratic Senator from Delaware, who championed for market reform in his two years in office, told Fortune. "It looks like we will have a wave of global exchange mergers, reshaping the market structure landscape again before the SEC can figure out what it thinks about the markets as they existed on," the day the flash crash occurred.

????So far, arguments for blocking the merger have centered on the fear of a large chunk of US equity trading falling into foreign hands. But US government officials have come out and said that the deal probably doesn't pose a security threat, making it hard for regulators to raise that concern when making their judgment.

????"This is about far more than whether 'New York Stock Exchange' stays first in the name of the merged company," says Kaufman, who recently replaced Elizabeth Warren as Chair of the Congressional Oversight Committee on the TARP. "This is a signpost on the road to American decline, if we don't stop and restore the credibility of our markets."

????But it is unclear if there is anything that can be done to stop mergers in the exchange space. The London Stock Exchange is moving to acquire the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Singapore Exchange is moving to acquire the Australian Securities Exchange. Rumors abound of other potential tie-ups that could see the CME, the parent of the NASDAQ (NDAQ), and other exchanges snap up smaller exchanges. Regulators could put an end to the merger mania but they may have little to hang their hat on at the moment.