????當然，沒人知道確切答案。 但頂尖經(jīng)濟學家們早在2008年油價飆升時就開始做出一些猜測了，當時油價最高達到147美元/桶。

????盡管2008年時的高油價仍比當下美國原油價格高出40%，但這并不能令人感到寬慰。強勁的全球需求加之對日漸減少的石油閑置產(chǎn)能的質(zhì)疑，正使得油價再度飆升的可能性日益增大。

????紐約大學（NYU）經(jīng)濟學家諾瑞爾?魯比尼本周三在迪拜表示，油價達到140美元/桶可能意味著“部分發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體將開始陷入經(jīng)濟二次探底”。他認為，美國經(jīng)濟目前的擴張速度已經(jīng)夠快，或許可以避免再度惡化，但他隨后又表示，價格飛漲可能會使美國經(jīng)濟增長“陷入停滯”。

????有著“末日博士”別名的魯比尼教授并不是唯一一個持這種觀點的人。 美國銀行（Bank of America）首席經(jīng)濟學家伊森?哈里斯對日益攀升的油價極為憂慮，導致他在本周三將全球經(jīng)濟增長預期下調(diào)了0.1個百分點 。

????這一微調(diào)如此值得注意的原因在于，由于經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)好于預期，哈里斯近幾個月一直對經(jīng)濟增長感到樂觀，同時對美國通脹風險輕描淡寫。

????哈里斯在本周三致客戶的一份函件中這樣寫道：“由于數(shù)據(jù)流量得到提升，我們一直傾向于調(diào)高我們的全球增長預測。 但不幸的是，油價飆升完全抵消了這種上調(diào)?！?/p>

????美國銀行的經(jīng)濟學家們周一表示，中東地區(qū)騷亂和歐洲大陸對易精煉輕質(zhì)原油的依賴使得歐洲油價近期處于115美元/桶上下，他們認為今后三個月內(nèi)可能暫時達到140美元/桶。

????盡管他們預計北海布倫特原油價格在第二季度飆升之后將出現(xiàn)回落，但這種價格上漲可能對歐洲無力的經(jīng)濟復蘇造成毀滅性打擊，較之歐洲，美國目前的經(jīng)濟復蘇可謂強勁有力。

????美國銀行已將其歐洲全年平均油價從88美元/桶上調(diào)至108美元/桶，將美國全年平均油價從87美元/桶上調(diào)至101美元。

????即便這樣，哈里斯仍然不十分認同將出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟衰退的觀點。不過，如果油價開始上漲并保持在高位，這也許意味著經(jīng)濟增長落幕。

????如果石油生產(chǎn)關(guān)閉蔓延到利比亞以外的國家和地區(qū)，我們將再度調(diào)整我們的預測，而如果油價持續(xù)超過150美元/桶的歷史峰值，全球經(jīng)濟衰退就將成為切實的風險；當油價達到200美元/桶時，經(jīng)濟衰退幾乎已經(jīng)板上釘釘。

????或許你需要另一種預測，這絕對是這個時代的標志：看看現(xiàn)在誰正在預測末日。

????No one knows for sure, of course. But some early guesses by top economists start in the neighborhood of the 2008 oil spike, which peaked out at $147 a barrel.

????Though that is still 40% above the current price of U.S. crude, it is not exactly reassuring news. Strong global demand, together with questions about dwindling spare oil production capacity, are making a repeat visit to spikeland look more likely.

????Oil hitting $140 a barrel could mean that "some of the advanced economies will start to double dip," NYU economist Nouriel Roubini said Wednesday in Dubai. He said the U.S. economy is expanding fast enough that it will probably avoid a relapse, but added that a price spike could leave it at "stall speed."

????Dr. Doom isn't the only one thinking this way. Bank of America chief economist Ethan Harris is concerned enough about rising oil prices that he trimmed his global economic growth forecast by a tenth of a percentage point Wednesday.

????The modest cut is noteworthy because Harris has been bullish about economic growth in recent months, while playing down any U.S. inflation risks, thanks to stronger than expected economic numbers.

????"As the data flow has improved, we had been leaning toward bumping up our global growth call," Harris wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. "Unfortunately, the oil price surge more than cancels out that upgrade."

????BofA economists said Monday they believe oil prices in Europe, recently around $115 a barrel thanks to Mideast unrest and the Continent's dependence on easily refined sweet oil grades, could "temporarily" hit $140 in the next three months.

????Though they expect the Brent price to fall off after a second-quarter surge, that spike could deal a damaging blow to a recovery in Europe that makes the one here look downright sizzling.

????BofA raised its full-year average oil price to $108 in Europe from $88, and to $101 in the United States from $87.

????Even at that, Harris isn't quite waving red flags about recession. But if oil prices take off and stay elevated, it could mean curtains for growth.

????If the production shutdown spreads outside of Libya, we will be revisiting our forecast again and if oil prices go above their historic peak of about $150/bbl on a sustained basis, a global recession becomes a real risk; at $200/bbl a recession seems almost certain.

????As if you need another one, this is surely a sign of the times: look who's doomsaying now.