????三大評級公司都已表示，現(xiàn)在要判定日本大地震是否會(huì)導(dǎo)致日本主權(quán)債務(wù)評級下調(diào)，仍為時(shí)過早。眼下，惠譽(yù)（Fitch）對日本的評級是AA，標(biāo)普（S&P）給出的評級是AA-，穆迪（Moody's）給出的是Aa2，三家評級公司都決定目前維持評級不變。

????當(dāng)日本正在竭力應(yīng)對上周一系列自然災(zāi)害帶來的諸多麻煩時(shí)，這些聲明或許能幫助日本暫時(shí)免于債務(wù)危機(jī)。

????在日本，工作人員正在全力避免核融毀威脅，死亡人數(shù)在不斷攀升，而能源與食品短缺在日本各地蔓延。穆迪指出，據(jù)《日本經(jīng)濟(jì)新聞》（Nikkei News）援引日本首相菅直人的話稱，此次地震和海嘯令日本面臨“二戰(zhàn)以來最嚴(yán)重的危機(jī)”。

????穆迪在最近的一份報(bào)告中指出，“上周五的地震不會(huì)使日本很快陷入財(cái)政危機(jī)”，惠譽(yù)和標(biāo)普也贊同此看法。穆迪還表示，“我們認(rèn)為，當(dāng)前政府的關(guān)注點(diǎn)應(yīng)放在應(yīng)急救援和重建努力上，不管財(cái)政成本是多少?！?/p>

????有些對沖基金在此次地震前就已押注日本將現(xiàn)金融危機(jī)，他們預(yù)計(jì)日本龐大的債務(wù)（預(yù)計(jì)相當(dāng)于今年該國GDP的2.28倍）可能出現(xiàn)違約，或讓日元貶值。過去一周，圍繞日本財(cái)政狀況的爭論重現(xiàn)，看空者的依據(jù)是政府可能不得不借入更多錢以滿足救援和重建工作所需。

????任何調(diào)低日本主權(quán)債務(wù)評級的行為，都會(huì)加大債務(wù)危機(jī)爆發(fā)的可能性。雖然評級公司都堅(jiān)稱評級只是一方觀點(diǎn)，但這些評級往往會(huì)決定大型機(jī)構(gòu)投資者能否持有一只債券（還是必須賣出）。評級下調(diào)也可能是信用違約互換(CDS)等金融合同的觸發(fā)事件，迫使資金易手。歷史上，評級下調(diào)也曾令市場風(fēng)聲鶴唳。全球金融危機(jī)期間美國國際集團(tuán)（AIG）評級遭下調(diào)，就是評級決定引發(fā)真實(shí)災(zāi)難性影響的一個(gè)典型。

????就日本而言，三大評級機(jī)構(gòu)都表示，它們相信日本有能力籌集所需資金，近期不會(huì)調(diào)整評級。它們還認(rèn)為，重建能在未來創(chuàng)造經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)，或能抵消這些借貸成本。

????不過，惠譽(yù)警告稱，在政府負(fù)債迅速增加的背景下，日本如何拿出一個(gè)平衡預(yù)算、解決債務(wù)壓力的可信計(jì)劃，更具重要意義。并稱，如果“(日本國債)收益率持續(xù)上升……致該國主權(quán)債務(wù)處于更不利的地位”，惠譽(yù)將考慮將日本列入負(fù)面觀察名單。在龐大的債務(wù)重壓下，哪怕利率的微幅上升也是日本所無法承受的。

????穆迪也同意這種觀點(diǎn)，并指出如果市場開始拋售日本國債、收益率上漲， “拐點(diǎn)就可能到來”。

????不過，日本長期以來一直向國內(nèi)民眾和機(jī)構(gòu)借錢，這使得利率一直保持在低水平，而且市場穩(wěn)定。標(biāo)普相信日本將能進(jìn)一步發(fā)行更多債券，而“無需大幅調(diào)高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)”，并預(yù)計(jì)不會(huì)有大量資本外流。

????“當(dāng)然，這種推測將受到考驗(yàn)，”標(biāo)普在報(bào)告中寫道。

????The three largest credit rating agencies have said that it's too early to decide whether the recent earthquake will lead to downgrades for Japanese sovereign debt. Fitch rates Japan AA, S&P AA-, and Moody's Aa2 and all three will remain unchanged for now.

????The announcements may help keep a debt crisis at bay in Japan, as the country grapples with the mounting problems created by the last week's series of natural disasters.

????Workers are fighting to prevent a nuclear meltdown, the death toll is rising, and energy and food shortages are rippling across the nation. Moody's notes that Prime Minister Kan was quoted in the Nikkei News as saying that the earthquake and tsunami created "the biggest crisis facing the country since World War II."

????"The shock from Friday's earthquake does not make a fiscal crisis in Japan imminent," Moody's wrote in its recent report, a sentiment echoed by Fitch and S&P. "We recognize that the immediate focus of the government must be on emergency relief and reconstruction efforts, no matter what the fiscal cost."

????Before the earthquake, some hedge funds had wagered on a Japanese financial collapse, saying that the country would have to default on its massive debt (predicted to hit 228% of GDP this year) or destroy the value of the yen. In the past week, the debate about Japan's fiscal health has returned, with Japan bears pointing to the fact that the government will be forced to borrow even more money to pay for rescue and reconstruction work.

????Any downgrade of Japanese sovereign debt would certainly increase the likelihood of a debt crisis. While the agencies are adamant that their ratings are mere opinions, ratings often dictate whether large institutional investors can hold a bond (or must be forced to sell). Downgrades can also be trigger events in financial contracts, like credit default swaps, that force money to change hands between parties; and they have historically spooked markets. The decision to downgrade AIG (AIG) amid the financial crisis is a perfect example of a rating action having a real and disastrous impact.

????In the case of Japan, the agencies all say that they have faith in the country's ability to raise money as needed, and will take no action in the near term. They add that reconstruction will create future economic activity that could offset those borrowing costs.

????Fitch warns that the rapid increase in the public debt burden will make it that much more important for Japan to come up with a credible plan to balance the budget and deal with its debt load. Fitch added that it would consider putting the country on negative watch if a "sustained rise in [Japanese Government Bond] yields... worsened the sovereign's debt dynamics." Because Japan has such a large debt, it can't afford even a small rise in interest payments.

????Moody's agrees, saying that "a tipping point may be reached" if the market starts to sell JGBs and yields rise.

????However, Japan has long borrowed money from its own people and institutions, which has kept interest rates low and markets stable. S&P believes that the country will continue to be able to issue additional debt "without a major increase in risk premiums, and does not expect major capital outflows.

????"This supposition will, of course, be tested," S&P wrote in its note.