????美國商業(yè)圓桌會議（Business Roundtable）近日公布的第一季度首席執(zhí)行官前景指數(shù)創(chuàng)下歷史新高。這個已有九年歷史的指數(shù)反映的是對未來銷售額、資本支出和雇傭趨勢的預(yù)期，該指數(shù)第一季度達(dá)到113點，比前高點整整高出了7%。

????對142位首席執(zhí)行官的調(diào)查顯示，92%的受訪者預(yù)計未來6個月銷售額將增加，52%預(yù)計將在美國招工。他們預(yù)計今年美國經(jīng)濟(jì)將增長2.9%，高于此前預(yù)期的2.5%。

????首席執(zhí)行官們“預(yù)計未來6個月經(jīng)濟(jì)增長勢頭向好，需求的增長將催生更多的投資和就業(yè)機(jī)會”，美國商業(yè)圓桌會議主席、Verizon首席執(zhí)行官伊萬?塞登伯格表示。

????當(dāng)然，“增長勢頭向好”并不能說明太多問題，畢竟經(jīng)濟(jì)仍乏力。但首席執(zhí)行官們信心滿滿，這一點并不令人奇怪。十年來美國工資水平持平，而首席執(zhí)行官的薪酬持續(xù)飆升。雖然此輪經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇疲弱，但許多增長都惠及大公司。例如，企業(yè)利潤現(xiàn)已達(dá)歷史高點（見上圖）。

????與此同時，消費者卻明顯信心不足，原因是食品和能源價格上漲以及好工作機(jī)會匱乏。就想想首席執(zhí)行官們對銷售額和雇傭預(yù)期之間高達(dá)40點的差距吧。

????首席執(zhí)行官們和消費者之間的信心差距，或許不能說明美國大公司已脫離普羅大眾。但有一個跡象完全可以說明首席執(zhí)行官們正在脫離現(xiàn)實——此次調(diào)查中受訪的首席執(zhí)行官們無一預(yù)計未來6個月其所在公司的銷售額將下降。

????即便是在2004-2007年那段人們感覺良好的泡沫時期 ，每次調(diào)查都至少有一、兩位首席執(zhí)行官承認(rèn)，其所在公司的銷售額可能會下降。但這次一個人都沒有。這無疑反映了大公司高管們的非理性樂觀情緒。

????The Business Roundtable's CEO outlook index hit its highest level on record in the first quarter, the trade group said Wednesday. The 9-year-old index, measuring expected sales, capital spending and hiring trends, hit 113 – a full 7% above than the previous high water mark.

????A survey of 142 chief executives showed 92% expect sales to rise in the next six months, and 52% expect to hire workers in the United States. They expect the U.S. economy to expand at a 2.9% clip this year, up from a previous 2.5%.

????Execs "see momentum in the economy over the next six months, with increased demand fueling greater investment and job creation," said the group's leader, Verizon (VZ) chief Ivan Seidenberg.

????Of course, "increased momentum" is not saying much, as lukewarm as the economy has been. But that CEOs should be highly confident now is no surprise. While U.S. wages have been flat for a decade, CEO pay continues to soar. And as weak as this recovery has been, many of the gains have accrued to big companies. Corporate profits are at a record (see chart, above), for instance.

????At the same time, consumers are feeling markedly less confident, as a result of rising food and energy prices and the scarcity of good jobs. Consider the 40-point gap between the CEOs' sales and hiring expectations.

????The disparity between CEO and consumer confidence may or may not show that big U.S. companies are decoupling from Main Street. But here is a good sign the CEOs are decoupling from reality: not one executive surveyed in the latest round expects his or her company's sales to fall in the next six months.

????Even in the bubbly feel-good days of 2004-2007, every survey had at least one or two execs who admitted to lower sales ahead. But not this time. Score one for irrational exuberance in the catbird seat.