????從下周開始，在北京，千萬別提奢侈品這三個字。

????自4月15日起，在中國首都北京，任何公司如在公共廣告中使用該形容詞或者其他幾個與之近似的華麗辭藻，會被罰款近4,500美元。北京市政府在其網(wǎng)站上表示，這些詞匯會導(dǎo)致享樂主義的盛行以及精神空虛。為了闡明這一觀點(diǎn)，中國官方媒體甚至還列舉了目前的貧富差距為證。

????此禁令有點(diǎn)兒令人匪夷所思。不僅從表面上看起來如此，而且還因?yàn)樗`背了中國文化以及中國政府的現(xiàn)行政策。畢竟，中國消費(fèi)者向來熱衷于購買名牌產(chǎn)品。而且，中國政府一直致力于刺激增加居民消費(fèi)。

????但是，北京市政府此舉并不代表它會放棄推行消費(fèi)主義。盡管此新規(guī)定一經(jīng)頒布，便掀起一片軒然大波，但是奢侈品行業(yè)分析師表示，這條新法規(guī)基本形同虛設(shè)。誠然，對到處兜售“豪華瑞士公寓”和“優(yōu)質(zhì)法國紅酒”的騙子們而言，打擊肯定不小。事實(shí)上，取締虛假廣告很可能才是政府的核心目的，但對于主要奢侈品廠商來說，此規(guī)定無甚影響。通常高端零售商也不會在廣告牌上做廣告。

????“迄今政府在這方面的作為非常有限?！苯?jīng)紀(jì)公司CSLA的艾倫?費(fèi)舍爾表示：“如果他們確實(shí)希望對奢侈品消費(fèi)進(jìn)行限制，他們會調(diào)整關(guān)稅?！?/p>

????盡管按地區(qū)劃分，中國目前僅是全球第四大奢侈品消費(fèi)國，但據(jù)預(yù)計(jì)，其增長異常迅猛。費(fèi)舍爾在最近執(zhí)筆的一份CLSA報(bào)告中預(yù)測說，到2020年，中國消費(fèi)者用于購買奢侈品的開支，將超過其他所有國家，在全球奢侈品銷售總額中占到44%。日本是目前全球最大的奢侈品消費(fèi)國，到2020年，其在全球奢侈品銷售中將只占據(jù)24%的份額。

????沒人對中國的增長潛力表示質(zhì)疑。盡管中國人口日漸老齡化，但中國百萬富翁的平均年齡只有39歲，比日本、歐洲、以及北美等地百萬富翁的平均年齡年輕15歲。奢侈品是中國商業(yè)文化的重要組成部分。標(biāo)有古馳（Gucci）商標(biāo)的禮物不僅有助于順利地打通關(guān)系，而且與裝在信封里的現(xiàn)金相比，也顯得頗具品味。一個香奈爾（Chanel）的手提包握在手，就能說明你的腰包有多鼓，當(dāng)然最終也成為一種經(jīng)濟(jì)地位的象征。

稅收問題

????北京市政府如何看待中國人的上述消費(fèi)趨勢呢？欲解開此謎題，不妨從中國的奢侈品稅收細(xì)分項(xiàng)目著手。在中國，這類商品的繳稅項(xiàng)目包括進(jìn)口稅、增值稅以及奢侈品稅。盡管中國政府確實(shí)在制定政策時考慮到了收入不均的問題，但它更在乎自身龐大的開支。由于在中國大陸對奢侈品征稅高達(dá)30%，中國消費(fèi)者中只有一半在國內(nèi)采購奢侈品，相應(yīng)地，中國政府因而損失了上十億美元的稅收。

????因此，問題在于，如果政府改變稅收政策，情形又將會如何？問題的核心不在于中國消費(fèi)者會縮減開支，而是他們會在何處消費(fèi)。眼下，許多高端中國消費(fèi)者會大老遠(yuǎn)跑到巴黎、倫敦、香港以及澳門等地采購奢侈品。目前，倫敦和巴黎的主要商場都設(shè)有能講普通話的員工。而且，今年巴黎計(jì)劃開設(shè)或者重新裝修的豪華酒店的數(shù)量，超過了其歷史上的任何一年。匯豐銀行（HSBC）的分析師歐文?蘭勃格估計(jì)，香港手表市場有75%是由大陸消費(fèi)者帶動的。

????最近，此問題亦引起了中文媒體的關(guān)注。中國房地產(chǎn)巨頭、億萬富翁王健林最近對《新京報(bào)》抱怨道：“中國消費(fèi)者乘飛機(jī)跑到國外采購奢侈品，只會給其他國家增加就業(yè)機(jī)會和稅收?！蓖踹€表示，中國城市應(yīng)該建設(shè)成旅游和購物的雙重目的地，但鑒于目前居高不下的奢侈品稅率，這一目標(biāo)根本無法實(shí)現(xiàn)。

????目前看來，奢侈品廠商不僅在二者身上都壓了寶——即中國城市將被建成旅游和購物的目的地，同時也嘗試通過種種新辦法，吸引消費(fèi)新貴。奢侈品商店在中國大陸越開越多，奢侈品公司為了建立銷售團(tuán)隊(duì)也投入了大量的資本。麥肯錫公司（McKinsey）最近進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)針對中國奢侈品需求的報(bào)告顯示，奢侈品公司在中國面臨的一個重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是他們開設(shè)零售店的速度不夠快。

????普拉達(dá)公司（Prada）上周已申請?jiān)谙愀凵鲜小７治鰩煴硎?，該公司此舉，一方面是為提升自己在亞洲的品牌知名度；另一方面，也是為了利用大量涌入香港的中國資金。據(jù)報(bào)道，箱包廠商新秀麗公司（Samsonite Corporation）也在考慮在香港上市。愛馬仕（Hermès）公司已在中國開設(shè)了20家專賣店，去年第四季度，該公司亞洲銷售額增長了45%。最近，該公司又在中國創(chuàng)立了本地品牌“上下”（Shang Xia）。

????有些分析師表示，中國政府的目標(biāo)是在不擴(kuò)大貧富差距的同時，保持相對安定的社會環(huán)境。鑒于此，奢侈品稅率有可能會下降，國內(nèi)奢侈品消費(fèi)氛圍會增加。匯豐銀行的蘭博格表示，有傳言說，“手表稅率”可能很快會下降，甚至政府有可能不再對手表征稅。他補(bǔ)充道：“如果果真如此的話，就與奢侈品管制的觀點(diǎn)相矛盾了。”

????譯者：大海

????Starting next week, mum's the word on luxury in Beijing.

????After April 15, any company that puts up a public advertisement in China's capital city using the adjective -- or a few other flowery phrases like it -- will be fined around $4,500. The municipal government says on its website that such words induce hedonism and spiritual emptiness. The state media cites the growing gap between the rich and the poor.

????The crackdown may seem odd, both at face value and because it appears to contradict both Chinese culture and existing government policy. After all, China is known for its brand-loving shoppers. And the country's government is in the midst of a push specifically aimed at getting citizens to consume more.

????But this latest move by the government doesn't mean it wants to backtrack on consumerism. While the initial announcement of the regulation kicked up a fuss, analysts of the luxury goods industry say the new law is mostly meaningless. It may hurt the local swindler peddling "luxury Swiss apartments" and "royal French wine" -- indeed, suppressing false advertising is likely the government's core aim -- but the regulation is irrelevant for major luxury goods companies. High-end retailers don't normally advertise on billboards.

????"What they've done is pretty marginal," says Aaron Fischer of CSLA, a broker. "If they really want to send a message, they'll change the duties."

????Although China is only the fourth-largest consumer of luxury goods by region, its growth forecasts are heady. A recent CLSA report, authored by Fischer, predicts that Chinese consumers will spend more on luxury goods than consumers in any other country by 2020, accounting for 44% of global luxury sales. Japan, which holds the current "biggest spender" title, accounts for only 24% of global luxury sales.

????No one seems to doubt this growth potential. Despite China's aging population, the average Chinese millionaire is only 39, 15 years younger than the average millionaire in Japan, Europe, and North America. Luxury goods are an essential part of business culture in China. A gift with a Gucci label builds guanxi, or relationships, and is considered more tasteful than an envelope of money. Carrying a Chanel bag suggests you have a fat wallet inside, which is the ultimate status symbol.

The taxing question

????How does Beijing view this trend? For anyone trying to crack this analysis, the country's luxury tax hit list -- the products affected by the country's sweeping combination of import, value-added, and luxury goods taxes -- is a good place to start. While the Chinese government does seem attuned to income disparity, it also has bills to pay. But because luxury goods are taxed up to 30% on the Mainland, only one in two Chinese consumers do their shopping at home -- translating to billions in lost tax revenues for the government.

????The question, then, is what will happen if the tax changes. It's not a matter of spending less, but where Chinese consumers will spend. Right now, many high-end Chinese shoppers travel to Paris, London, Hong Kong, and Macau. Major department stores in London and Paris now have Mandarin-speaking staff, and more luxury hotels will be opened or refurbished this year in Paris than at any other time in the city's history. Erwan Rambourg, an analyst at HSBC, estimates that 75% of Hong Kong's watch market is driven by Mainlanders.

????The Chinese-language media has given attention the issue lately. Wang Jianlin, a billionaire property tycoon, recently complained to Beijing News that, "Chinese people sit on airplanes to deliver jobs and tax money to foreign countries." Chinese cities should be developed as both tourist destinations and shopping destinations, Wang said -- but they are prevented from doing so by the luxury tax.

????Luxury goods companies seem to be betting on both scenarios, as well as trying new approaches to tap the rising class of consumers. More luxury goods stores continue to open on the Mainland, with companies putting a lot of capital into developing a sales staff. A recent McKinsey report on Chinese luxury demand says that a major risk for companies is failing to open stores in China quickly enough.

????Prada filed a request last week to go public in Hong Kong. Analysts say this is both for brand awareness in Asia, as well as to tap the avalanche of Chinese money flowing into Hong Kong. Samsonite Corporation, the luggage company, is reportedly also considering listing shares in Hong Kong. Hermès, which has 20 stores in China and saw its Asian sales grow by 45% in the fourth quarter of last year, just launched Shang Xia, a Chinese spinoff brand.

????Some analysts say that the government's goal of maintaining a relatively peaceful society without a large wealth gap may actually lead it to lower taxes and build up luxurious tastes. According to HSBC's Rambourg, there are rumors that the "watch tax" could be lowered soon or dropped altogether. "That," he says, "would contradict this idea of clamping down on luxury goods."