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2011年的油價(jià)大漲之勢(shì)已近尾聲?

2011年的油價(jià)大漲之勢(shì)已近尾聲?

Colin Barr 2011-04-13
但是盡管全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)加之中東石油熱點(diǎn)地區(qū)動(dòng)蕩,仍有跡象顯示油價(jià)對(duì)于手頭緊張的消費(fèi)者而言早已太高。

????

????2011年的油價(jià)大漲之勢(shì)已近尾聲?

????油價(jià)漲漲不休已成常態(tài)。國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)上周宣布,高油價(jià)狀況將持續(xù),過去10年油價(jià)年均漲幅12.5%。華爾街正在孤注一擲于油價(jià)的進(jìn)一步上漲。隨著上周四紐約原油價(jià)格觸及110美元/桶,今年累計(jì)漲幅達(dá)到17%,這個(gè)注看來押得不錯(cuò)。

????汽油價(jià)格見頂?

????但是盡管全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)加之中東石油熱點(diǎn)地區(qū)動(dòng)蕩,仍有跡象顯示油價(jià)對(duì)于手頭緊張的消費(fèi)者而言早已太高。以美國(guó)汽油需求為例,過去四周下降3.7%——能源市場(chǎng)跟蹤人士史蒂芬?肖克稱之為“實(shí)質(zhì)性下降”。

????不過,美國(guó)汽油價(jià)格本周已觸及3.70美元/加侖,創(chuàng)2008年夏季以來新高。英國(guó)的汽油零售價(jià)格也在飆升,而且由于稅收因素,英國(guó)汽油的單位加侖價(jià)格已接近美國(guó)的兩倍。而在中國(guó),政府正努力通過壓低需求控制大宗商品價(jià)格。

????但價(jià)格上漲和需求下降不可能長(zhǎng)期并存,這也是為何一些市場(chǎng)觀察人士認(rèn)為除非有新問題出現(xiàn)——如中東沖突再次升級(jí),否則未來油價(jià)將轉(zhuǎn)而下跌的原因。

????“當(dāng)前的市場(chǎng)價(jià)格已反映了很多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和擔(dān)憂因素,”NUS Consulting駐新澤西州帕克里奇的理查德?索坦尼亞表示,“我們認(rèn)為當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)真的不理性,除非我們?cè)俅卧庥鑫C(jī),否則油價(jià)必將下跌?!?NUS Consulting為企業(yè)提供能源價(jià)格建議。

????那么,如果需求不旺盛,為什么油價(jià)會(huì)這么高呢?看看華爾街就知道了,那里通過期貨和期權(quán)賭油價(jià)上漲的投機(jī)頭寸已達(dá)到3.23億桶當(dāng)量——是Gluskin Sheff經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家戴維?羅森博格認(rèn)為的正常值的4倍。

????羅森博格認(rèn)為,只要這些投機(jī)頭寸減少1/3,降至去年秋季美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)啟動(dòng)二次量化寬松前后的水平,原油價(jià)格就可能降至85-90美元/桶。

????肖克稱,90美元/桶的油價(jià)是完全有可能的,畢竟自2010年底油價(jià)投機(jī)興起以來,經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面幾無改觀。他將今年油價(jià)上漲的大部分原因歸于對(duì)沖基金和其他交易者利用杠桿、賭大宗商品價(jià)格上漲的行為。自從去年8月本?伯南克承諾將以更寬松的貨幣政策支持美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì),大宗商品價(jià)格展開了一輪飆升。

????美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)最新的高級(jí)信貸官員調(diào)查顯示,養(yǎng)老基金、對(duì)沖基金等投資者加大了杠桿的使用。

????“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正在不斷地給他們錢,因此,這些人可以賭價(jià)格上漲,” 肖克表示,“市場(chǎng)上由此產(chǎn)生的溢價(jià)可能為15-20美元。”

????索坦尼亞也表示,一旦投機(jī)行為不管出于什么原因終止,85-95美元的油價(jià)區(qū)間看來是有可能的。當(dāng)然,此輪漲勢(shì)將如何結(jié)束以及何時(shí)結(jié)束尚不明了,但一個(gè)顯而易見的事實(shí)是高油價(jià)持續(xù)的時(shí)間通常較短,因?yàn)楦哂蛢r(jià)會(huì)導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩。

????他還將今年的油價(jià)上漲比作2008年的那輪上漲,當(dāng)時(shí)油價(jià)曾短暫上探至147美元/桶。

????“我們當(dāng)時(shí)就告訴客戶說,更高的油價(jià)預(yù)測(cè)是錯(cuò)誤的,”索坦尼亞表示,他的公司為大企業(yè)提供油價(jià)對(duì)沖建議,“我們現(xiàn)在也是這樣告訴客戶的?!?/p>

????Has the great oil rally of 2011 run its course?

????Rising oil prices have become a fixture. The IMF declared this week that costly oil is here to stay, after a 12.5% average annual price increase over the past decade. Wall Street is betting the ranch on further increases. With crude hitting $110 a barrel in New York Thursday, up 17% this year, it's not looking like a bad bet.

????Peak gasoline?

????But for all the talk of global economic growth and unrest in Mideast oil hotspots, there are signs that oil prices are already too high for pinched consumers to bear. U.S. gasoline demand, for instance, dropped 3.7% over the past four weeks -- which energy tracker Stephen Schork calls a "material decline."

????Yet U.S. gas prices hit $3.70 this week, their highest level since the summer of 2008. Retail prices are also soaring in the U.K., where the per-gallon price is nearly double the one here thanks to taxes, and in China, where the government is trying to get a hold on commodity prices by pushing down demand.

????But rising prices and falling demand can't co-exist for long, which is why some market watchers argue that oil prices are headed for a fall unless new problems emerge -- such as another flareup in the Middle East.

????"The market is pricing in a lot of risk and a lot of fear right now," says Richard Soultanian of NUS Consulting in Park Ridge, N.J., which advises companies on energy prices. "What we're looking at right now is really irrational, and unless we get another shock you're going to see the prices come down."

????So why are prices so high if demand is tepid? Look no further than Wall Street, where speculative bets on rising oil prices via futures and options amount to the equivalent of 323 million barrels -- four times what Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg calls a normal level.

????He says that simply reducing that position by a third, to levels seen last fall around the start of the Federal Reserve's second quantitative easing program, could bring the crude price down to $85 to $90 a barrel.

????Schork says $90 oil is entirely plausible, given how little economic fundamentals have changed since the speculative run in oil started at the end of 2010. He attributes much of this year's gains to hedge funds and other traders levering up to bet on commodity prices, which have obliged by surging since Ben Bernanke promised in late August to support the economy with looser money.

????The Fed's latest senior credit officer survey reported increased use of leverage by investors such as pension funds and hedge funds.

????"The Fed is giving these guys money so they can bet on prices going up," Schork says. "There is probably a $15 or $20 premium in the market because of it."

????Soultanian too says a price in the $85-$95 range looks likely once the speculative run ends, for whatever reason. How or when this streak might end isn't clear, obviously, but it's evident that higher oil prices are often short-lived because of the economic slowing they cause.

????He likens this year's runup to the one in 2008 that briefly took the oil price to $147.

????"We were telling clients then that the forecasts for even higher prices were wrong," says Soultanian, whose firm advises big companies on oil price hedging. "We're telling them the same thing now."

????

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