汽車(chē)行業(yè)重要的一年

????就汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)售而言，2011年剛剛過(guò)去的幾個(gè)月內(nèi)發(fā)生了諸多事件。

????歷年來(lái)美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)都充滿了變數(shù)，但是今年以來(lái)其經(jīng)濟(jì)似乎病入膏肓了。對(duì)美國(guó)的財(cái)政赤字和政府債務(wù)的擔(dān)憂最近讓美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)走到了崩潰的邊緣。中東地區(qū)的政局動(dòng)蕩令黃金的成本勇創(chuàng)新高；大宗商品價(jià)格的不斷攀升表明通貨膨脹的陰霾已卷土重來(lái)。

????與此同時(shí)，日本地震和海嘯導(dǎo)致供電線路中斷，給美日汽車(chē)制造商都帶來(lái)了災(zāi)難性的后果。沒(méi)有人能夠控制這些事態(tài)的發(fā)展，加上層出不窮的問(wèn)題使得境況更加糟糕。由于零部件供應(yīng)不足，本田（Honda）和豐田（Toyota）都紛紛削減在美國(guó)的產(chǎn)量。

????最為要緊的是，穩(wěn)步上升的汽油價(jià)格已經(jīng)激發(fā)了更多的車(chē)主購(gòu)買(mǎi)裝有替代動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)的小型車(chē)的興趣。來(lái)自底特律三大汽車(chē)廠商的一位高管做了粗略計(jì)算，微型和小型車(chē)的市場(chǎng)份額已經(jīng)從原先不足20%上升到25%，豐田普銳斯（Prius）混合動(dòng)力小型車(chē)再次供不應(yīng)求。

????2011年過(guò)去了一個(gè)季度，對(duì)于廠家規(guī)定的型年而言已經(jīng)過(guò)去了6個(gè)月，現(xiàn)在開(kāi)始預(yù)測(cè)2011年汽車(chē)行業(yè)的贏家與輸家并非言之過(guò)早。

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A big year for autos

????2011 has already been an unusually eventful year for auto sales.

????There is economic uncertainty every year, but this year it seems to be especially virulent. New concern about the U.S. budget deficit and government debt pushed Congress to the brink; uprisings in the Middle East helped push the cost of gold to an all-time high; and growing prices of commodities raised anew the specter of inflation.

????Meanwhile the Japan earthquake and tsunami have interrupted supply lines and played havoc with production by both Japanese and American automakers. What's worse is that nobody seems to have their arms around the issues, and problems keep spreading. Because of parts shortages, both Honda and Toyota are cutting production in the U.S.

????On top of all that, steadily rising gasoline prices have renewed interest in small cars with alternative powertrains. According to one back-of-the envelope calculation by a Detroit Three executive, the market share for subcompact and compact cars has risen to 25% from the high teens, and the Toyota Prius is once again in short supply.

????With three months gone in the calendar year -- and six months in the model year -- it is not too soon to start projecting the winners and losers for 2011.

????By Alex Taylor III, senior editor at large

????贏家：美國(guó)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)

????在自然災(zāi)難（地震）和人為災(zāi)難（由中東政局動(dòng)蕩引發(fā)的油價(jià)攀升）頻繁發(fā)生的情況下，美系汽車(chē)和卡車(chē)銷(xiāo)量一路高歌猛進(jìn)。一季度行業(yè)銷(xiāo)售同比上升20%，全年銷(xiāo)售量將突破1，300萬(wàn)輛。這種業(yè)績(jī)算不上華麗，但足以讓大多數(shù)廠商實(shí)現(xiàn)贏利。不過(guò)，謎局亦在：底特律汽車(chē)三巨頭在遏制優(yōu)惠計(jì)劃方面將獲得多大的成功。

????In the face of disasters both random (earthquakes) and predictable (instability in the Middle East leading to higher oil prices), car and truck sales have held up surprisingly well. Industry sales rose 20% in the first quarter, and are headed above 13 million for the calendar year -- no barnburner but enough for most manufacturers to stay in the black. Still uncertain: How successful the Detroit Three will be in restraining incentives.

????贏家：福特汽車(chē)

????由于未接受美國(guó)政府救助，福特汽車(chē)贏得了民眾的支持，其銷(xiāo)售量于今年三月份實(shí)現(xiàn)了超越通用汽車(chē)（GM）銷(xiāo)售量的佳績(jī)。這樣的成績(jī)?cè)谧罱?0多年來(lái)還是第二次出現(xiàn)。當(dāng)然，來(lái)自第三方——美國(guó)J.D. Power的《消費(fèi)者報(bào)告》（Consumer Reports）的高度評(píng)價(jià)，同樣讓福特贏得了廣泛支持。而且市場(chǎng)上福特生產(chǎn)的大排量?？怂梗‵ocus）車(chē)型才剛剛上市。

????Winner: Ford Motor

????Riding a wave of public approval for stepping back from government support, as well as growing confirmation of superior performance from third-party sources (Consumer Reports, J.D. Power), Ford outsold GM in March for only the second time in more than a decade. And its high-volume Focus has only barely reached the market.

????艾克森一反底特律汽車(chē)廠商要求管理層穩(wěn)定的傳統(tǒng)，對(duì)管理層進(jìn)行大范圍的重組，其規(guī)模僅稍遜于史上亨利?福特二世對(duì)福特公司的改革力度，當(dāng)時(shí)亨利?福特二世接替年邁的祖父后，引進(jìn)了十位“精明小子”（Whiz Kids）。在通用汽車(chē)公布了今年一季度的銷(xiāo)售業(yè)績(jī)（即同比上升25%）之后， 那些擔(dān)心方方面面的變化——尤其市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷(xiāo)的變化——會(huì)帶來(lái)災(zāi)難性后果的批評(píng)者不敢妄加評(píng)論了。艾克森必須帶領(lǐng)通用汽車(chē)度過(guò)新車(chē)型“旱期”，直到2013款雪佛蘭美宜堡（Chevy Malibu）上市。

????Winner: GM chairman and CEO Dan Ackerson

????In defiance of Detroit tradition, Akerson continued the biggest management shakeup since Henry Ford II replaced his senile grandfather and brought in the Whiz Kids. Critics who worried that all the changes -- especially in marketing -- would have an unsettling effect were quieted by GM's 25% sales increase in the first quarter. Now he has to manage GM through a new model drought until the 2013 Chevy Malibu arrives

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????贏家：現(xiàn)代（Hyundai）和起亞（Kia）

????現(xiàn)代和起亞，這兩家勢(shì)不可擋的韓國(guó)汽車(chē)新銳曾創(chuàng)下高于業(yè)內(nèi)水平的驕人業(yè)績(jī)。如今這一幕再次上演。但不同的是，這一次它們的車(chē)型贏得了特別優(yōu)勝單項(xiàng)獎(jiǎng)。最新一款獲此殊榮的車(chē)型是現(xiàn)代伊蘭特（Elantra）。

????The two Korean steamrollers have a history of outperforming the industry and are doing so again. The difference this time is that its cars are winning individual awards for superiority. The latest: Hyundai's Elantra.

????贏家：別克（Buick）

????誰(shuí)說(shuō)嬰兒潮時(shí)代出生的人將永遠(yuǎn)不可能接受其父母的醫(yī)生所開(kāi)汽車(chē)的品牌？別克君越（LaCrosse），富于靈感創(chuàng)意的設(shè)計(jì)，加之其在中國(guó)所獲成功的光環(huán)效應(yīng)，令市場(chǎng)為之一振。通用汽車(chē)的市場(chǎng)部總監(jiān)喬爾.伊萬(wàn)尼克將別克定位于豪華車(chē)系，可謂明智之舉。

????Who said Baby Boomers would never accept their parents' doctor's brand? Inspired new designs -- LaCrosse, Regal -- combined with the halo effect of success in China -- have supercharged results. GM marketing boss Joel Ewanick's move to market Buick as a luxury brand looks brilliant.

????當(dāng)克萊斯勒公司（Chrysler）首席執(zhí)行官塞爾吉奧?馬爾喬內(nèi)（Sergio Marchionne）將道奇卡車(chē)（Dodge Trucks）變成獨(dú)立的拉姆品牌時(shí)，傳統(tǒng)人士認(rèn)為此舉瘋狂之極。但是自從三季度拉姆卡車(chē)的銷(xiāo)售業(yè)績(jī)優(yōu)于包括奔馳（Mercedes）、別克、阿庫(kù)拉（Acura）在內(nèi)的很多汽車(chē)品牌之后，這些人就不敢說(shuō)三道四了。在不景氣的皮卡市場(chǎng)上，拉姆卡車(chē)還是實(shí)現(xiàn)了銷(xiāo)售增長(zhǎng)三分之一的杰出成績(jī)。

??? Traditionalists who thought Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne was nuts when he turned Dodge Trucks into a stand-alone Ram brand haven't been heard from since Ram outsold Mercedes, Buick, Acura and a host of others in the third quarter. In a tough market for pickups, Ram's sales are up by a third.

????受去年豐田“召回門(mén)”后遺癥的影響，這家日本汽車(chē)巨頭一季度的銷(xiāo)售僅僅上升了15%，而3月份單月銷(xiāo)售量更是下跌了8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。曾經(jīng)的最暢銷(xiāo)車(chē)型凱美瑞（Camry）將此榮譽(yù)讓位給日產(chǎn)奧蒂瑪（Nissan Altima）。而由于缺乏新車(chē)型，一季度雷克薩斯（Lexus）的銷(xiāo)量下降了4%。

????Loser: Toyota

????The Japanese behemoth continues to suffer from the hangover of last year's recall crisis. Toyota sales rose only 15% in the first quarter and actually fell 8% in March. Camry relinquished its best-selling title to Nissan's Altima. Lexus, hurting from a new-model drought was actually down 4% for the quarter.

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????盡管志在主導(dǎo)全球汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)并在美國(guó)市場(chǎng)實(shí)現(xiàn)復(fù)興，但是大眾的成績(jī)平淡無(wú)奇。大眾在美國(guó)的首款重新改裝版汽車(chē)——捷達(dá)（Jetta）——被批評(píng)人士形容為毫無(wú)新意，而將美國(guó)元素融入設(shè)計(jì)理念的帕薩特（Passat）估計(jì)同樣將深受批評(píng)。結(jié)果其一季度銷(xiāo)售增長(zhǎng)率落后于行業(yè)平均水平。

??? Despite its plans for world domination and an American revival, VW fell flat. Its first U.S. redesign -- the Jetta -- was roasted by critics for its lackluster execution, the built-in-America Passat looks like it may get the same reception, and first-quarter sales increases trailed the industry average.

????輸家：薩博（Saab）

????薩博和供應(yīng)商發(fā)生付款糾紛之后，汽車(chē)被迫停產(chǎn)，加之首席執(zhí)行官突然辭職，使得其圖謀復(fù)興的努力付諸東流。由于現(xiàn)金流不足，薩博的生存面臨危險(xiǎn)。

??? Its fragile efforts to revive foundered when payment disputes with suppliers halted production and its CEO abruptly resigned. With cash short, Saab's survival is officially endangered.

????輸家：精靈（Smart）

????正如一位克萊斯勒前高管所言，在超級(jí)經(jīng)銷(xiāo)商羅杰.潘世奇放棄分銷(xiāo)經(jīng)營(yíng)的打算，并將精靈品牌交還奔馳公司之后，這款微型車(chē)似乎便不那么靈動(dòng)了。備受歐洲市場(chǎng)青睞的靈巧車(chē)型設(shè)計(jì)理念沒(méi)能打動(dòng)美國(guó)汽車(chē)消費(fèi)者。在美國(guó)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)小規(guī)模的銷(xiāo)售熱潮中，精靈未能分得一杯羹，三月份僅賣(mài)出了425輛。

??? To paraphrase a former Chrysler executive, Smart looked less so after superdealer Roger Penske relinquished his distribution deal and gave the brand back to Mercedes. What was considered cute and clever in Europe didn't translate to the U.S. Smart bucked the small car boom, selling just 425 cars in March.

????輸家：邁巴赫（Maybach）

????邁巴赫是奔馳公司旗下的超豪華品牌，然而現(xiàn)在它幾乎完全淡出人們的視線。相比戴姆勒與克萊斯勒的合并，這算不得一個(gè)大錯(cuò)誤，但仍然缺乏解決方案。邁巴赫一季度的銷(xiāo)量幾乎僅為其勁敵勞斯萊斯（Rolls-Royce）的九分之一。除非邁巴赫重整雄風(fēng)或是徹底停產(chǎn)，不然它將一直令戴姆勒公司董事長(zhǎng)蔡澈（Dieter Zetsche）蒙羞，就像道奇翼龍（Nitro）和吉普指南者（Jeep Compass）一樣。

????Loser: Maybach

????Not quite as big a mistake as the DaimlerChrysler merger, but still lacking a resolution, Maybach, the uber-Mercedes brand, has almost vanished from sight. In the first quarter, it was outsold by arch-rival Rolls-Royce almost nine to one. Until it gets fixed or closed, it remains a stain on Daimler Chairman Dieter Zetsche's reputation. Sort of like the Dodge Nitro or Jeep Compass.