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懸崖邊的歐洲

懸崖邊的歐洲

Colin Barr 2011-04-26
編者按:今年初,國(guó)務(wù)院副總理李克強(qiáng)訪歐時(shí)表態(tài)要為西班牙經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇提供積極幫助,同時(shí)中國(guó)將繼續(xù)購(gòu)買(mǎi)歐債。輿論普遍認(rèn)為,中國(guó)購(gòu)買(mǎi)歐債,拯救歐元,關(guān)系中國(guó)長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)利益。 但是現(xiàn)在看來(lái),歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)已近懸崖,如果次貸危機(jī)在歐洲重演,歐洲銀行業(yè)具有強(qiáng)大的政治影響力——但財(cái)力不足,透明度不高,若出現(xiàn)主權(quán)債務(wù)違約的最糟情形,將受嚴(yán)重沖擊。本文將詳細(xì)闡釋。

歐元毫無(wú)指望了嗎?

????不妨先來(lái)看看市場(chǎng)。上周,1,000萬(wàn)美元希臘債務(wù)的年保費(fèi)突破了140萬(wàn)美元,而10年期希臘債券的收益率達(dá)到令人難以置信的15%。愛(ài)爾蘭和葡萄牙的公司債息差也創(chuàng)下了新高。

????投資者逃離希臘、愛(ài)爾蘭和葡萄牙,導(dǎo)致了歐元區(qū)現(xiàn)有的一個(gè)問(wèn)題。去年歐盟一直在救助弱國(guó)以及大到不能成功的銀行(too-big-to-succeed banks),而沒(méi)有解決導(dǎo)致弱國(guó)出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題的首要因素——生產(chǎn)率問(wèn)題。

????但由于歐洲央行不遺余力的抗通脹努力,歐元/美元現(xiàn)距離2008年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)即將迸裂前創(chuàng)下的歷史高點(diǎn)已不到10%。歐元漲得越高,滯重的歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)承受的壓力就越大。這種狀況能持續(xù)多久?

????對(duì)凱恩斯箴言的最新曲解是,市場(chǎng)的非理性狀態(tài)或許能持續(xù)至歐洲弱國(guó)或其銀行業(yè)債務(wù)償付問(wèn)題出現(xiàn)后。當(dāng)投資者最終搞明白時(shí),下跌可能是無(wú)情的。

????“我們現(xiàn)在正從懸崖上探出頭去,”Guggenheim Partners的首席投資官斯考特?邁納德表示。他預(yù)計(jì)隨著投資者最終認(rèn)清歐洲問(wèn)題的嚴(yán)重性,歐元/美元將從最近的1.46美元 (見(jiàn)上圖) 跌至平價(jià),甚至更低?!叭绻惆阉袛?shù)據(jù)加起來(lái),就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)逃無(wú)可逃?!?/p>

????令人不快的計(jì)算始于銀行業(yè)。如果次貸危機(jī)在歐洲重演,歐洲銀行業(yè)具有強(qiáng)大的政治影響力——但財(cái)力不足,透明度不高,若出現(xiàn)主權(quán)債務(wù)違約的最糟情形,將受嚴(yán)重沖擊。

????歐洲三個(gè)弱國(guó)僅占?xì)W盟年經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)值5%。但歐洲銀行業(yè)持有1,470億美元希臘主權(quán)債券以及1,150億美元愛(ài)爾蘭和葡萄牙債券,其中1,080億美元債券由這三國(guó)之外的歐盟成員國(guó)銀行持有。

????總之,相比美國(guó),在歐洲維持銀行業(yè)健康對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)更具重要性。根據(jù)經(jīng)合組織(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) 估算,銀行業(yè)承擔(dān)著歐元區(qū)信貸融資量的74%。而在房利美(Fannie Mae)的按揭貸款中,銀行業(yè)占比僅24%。

????“問(wèn)題始于資本金不足以及千絲萬(wàn)縷的關(guān)聯(lián),一個(gè)局部問(wèn)題很容易演變成系統(tǒng)性問(wèn)題,”位于布魯塞爾的歐洲政策研究中心(Center for European Policy Studies)主任丹尼爾?格羅斯表示,“但很難給出一個(gè)數(shù)字來(lái)說(shuō)明有多糟?!?/p>

????今春監(jiān)管部門(mén)的再次壓力測(cè)試未能提振人們對(duì)銀行業(yè)的信心,此次測(cè)試未包括主權(quán)債務(wù)違約情景。對(duì)于銀行業(yè)真實(shí)狀況的擔(dān)憂可能導(dǎo)致一旦主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)爆發(fā),就會(huì)演變成地區(qū)性問(wèn)題,并進(jìn)而在整個(gè)歐洲大陸蔓延。

????迄今為止,歐洲央行及歐洲政客們所采取的措施僅足以維持局勢(shì)不失控。一旦儲(chǔ)戶信心喪失,弱國(guó)仍將面臨巨大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

????導(dǎo)致去年秋季愛(ài)爾蘭只能接受不得人心的救助計(jì)劃的正是海外儲(chǔ)戶擠提。據(jù)邁納德估算,截至2月份,愛(ài)爾蘭銀行業(yè)的非居民存款已較上年同期銳減49%。

????迄今為止,葡萄牙銀行業(yè)尚未有擠提跡象。但格羅斯擔(dān)心一旦資金開(kāi)始撤離希臘,將會(huì)發(fā)生的情況——更不消說(shuō)經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模大于另外兩個(gè)受助國(guó)的西班牙了。隨著歐洲央行加息,失業(yè)率高達(dá)20%的經(jīng)濟(jì)將更顯滯重,銀行業(yè)的虧損可能擴(kuò)大。

????“我認(rèn)為希臘、愛(ài)爾蘭或葡萄牙要解決問(wèn)題,就必須削減債務(wù),”邁納德表示。如果是這樣的話,他補(bǔ)充說(shuō),“我們預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)18-24個(gè)月歐洲將出現(xiàn)大范圍的信貸緊縮。”

????美元也將上漲,信不信由你。

????Not that you'd know the difference to look at the market. The annual cost of insuring $10 million of Greek debt soared past $1.4 million this week, and the yield on 10-year Greek bonds hit an eye-watering 15%. Credit spreads hit new highs in Ireland and Portugal too.

????Investor flight from Greece, Ireland and Portugal has the makings of an existential problem for the euro zone. The European Union has spent the past year bailing out weak states and their too-big-to-succeed banks, without addressing the productivity problems that laid the weaker states low in the first place.

????Yet the euro, thanks to the inflation-squashing vigor of the European Central Bank, is now trading within 10% of the all-time high it hit against the dollar in 2008, just before the global economy came apart at the seams. The higher the euro goes, the more stress on laboring European economies. How long can this go on?

????In an ugly new twist on Keynes' aphorism, it is starting to look like the market can stay irrational longer than Europe's weaker states – or their banks -- can stay solvent. When investors finally catch on, the fall could be brutal.

????"We're peering over the precipice right now," says Scott Minerd, chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners. He is betting the euro will fall from a recent $1.46 (see chart, right) toward parity with the dollar or even beyond, as investors finally divine the extent of Europe's problems: "There is just no way out when you start to add up all the numbers."

????The unhappy math starts with the banks. In a replay of the subprime crisis here, the banks in Europe are politically powerful -- but financially weak, largely opaque and highly exposed to the worst case scenario, in this case a sovereign default.

????The three weak European states account for just 5% of annual European Union economic output. But EU banks hold $147 billion of Greek sovereign bonds and $115 billion of Irish and Portuguese debt – including $108 billion of bonds held by EU banks outside those countries.

????And if anything, keeping the banks healthy over there is more important to growth than it is here. Banks are responsible for 74% of credit extension in the euro area, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates. That compares with just 24% in the land of Fannie Mae mortgages.

????"The problems start with weak capitalization and a lot of interconnectedness, which means problems in one place can easily become systemic," says Daniel Gros, director of the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels. "But it's hard to put a number on exactly how bad it is."

????Confidence in the banks hasn't been helped by regulators' failure to include a sovereign default in the stress tests they are running again this spring. Fears about what the banks really look like could kindle a flare-up of the sovereign debt crisis into a regional headache into a Continent-wide contagion.

????So far, the ECB and European politicians have done just enough to keep the pot simmering without rolling into full boil. But the weak states remain vulnerable to a loss of confidence by depositors.

????It is an international bank run that pushed Ireland into its unpopular bailout last fall. Deposits held at Irish banks by nonresidents plunged 49% from a year ago through February, Minerd estimates.

????So far, there is no evidence of a run on Portuguese banks. But Gros worries what might happen if funds start fleeing from Greece -- let alone Spain, which is much bigger than any of the bailout three. Its banks could face rising losses as the ECB raises rates, punishing an economy already laboring, if you will, under 20% unemployment.

????"I don't really see a solution in Greece or Ireland or Portugal that doesn't involve haircutting the debt," Minerd says. As that plays out, he adds, "We are looking at a massive credit crunch in Europe over the next 18 to 24 months."

????The dollar, believe it or not, also rises.

?

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