????當(dāng)上周標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾(S&P)邁出前所未有的一步，將美國(guó)列入負(fù)面觀察，即未來(lái)美國(guó)信用評(píng)級(jí)可能從不容置疑的AAA級(jí)下調(diào)，投資者的反應(yīng)和這一年來(lái)聽到壞消息時(shí)差不多：打了個(gè)哈欠而已。

????似乎沒(méi)有什么能阻止信貸市場(chǎng)和股票市場(chǎng)的牛市：三場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，萬(wàn)億美元赤字，9%的失業(yè)率，5美元/加侖的汽油價(jià)格，地震，颶風(fēng)，核熔毀，主權(quán)債務(wù)違約，抑或打盹的空中交通管制員都不能。除非真人秀女星史努姬接過(guò)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)主席一職 (“她的膚色是曬黑的棕褐色，她身材勻稱，她已做好準(zhǔn)備”)，我們認(rèn)為短期內(nèi)這股“向上喊價(jià)”的勢(shì)頭不會(huì)終結(jié)。

????當(dāng)然，這沒(méi)有放緩資金流入零售貸款基金，又有5.32億美元(數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Lipper FMI)撤出現(xiàn)有的市政基金和共同基金，導(dǎo)致今年總額超過(guò)了120億美元，進(jìn)一步加劇了“太多現(xiàn)金追逐太少交易”的失衡現(xiàn)象。

????不過(guò)，該等式的“太少交易”部分可能正在發(fā)生變化。活躍于一季度的再融資、重新定價(jià)和股息資本重組活動(dòng)在經(jīng)歷了地緣政治動(dòng)蕩期間的暫時(shí)停歇后，現(xiàn)已開始回升，有些待完成的交易規(guī)模相當(dāng)大。IASIS、Manitowoc和Owens-Illinois的規(guī)模都超過(guò)了10億美元，而亞洲投資者對(duì)Frac Tech Services 的杠桿收購(gòu)交易也將帶來(lái)17億美元的融資交易。

????低門檻貸款也在大幅回升。據(jù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾旗下研究機(jī)構(gòu)LCD稱，年初以來(lái)的低門檻貸款額已達(dá)到龐大的303億美元，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于上年同期少得可憐的17億美元。除了IASIS，Neiman Marcus也在尋求20億美元再融資。

????談到這里，不妨將二次抵押貸款也加入回升名單。雖然此類貸款額仍遠(yuǎn)低于2006-2007年的峰值，但需求在改善。對(duì)于投資者，吸引力在于收益率；二次抵押貸款一季度平均利率為倫敦銀行間同業(yè)拆借利率+975個(gè)基點(diǎn)，包括下限和初始發(fā)行折扣(OID)。發(fā)行人優(yōu)選二次抵押貸款，而非夾層融資(mezzanine)，是因?yàn)楹笳吒F(12%的現(xiàn)金利率加3%的應(yīng)付非貨幣利率)，而且通常提前償還的罰金更高。

????據(jù)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》(WSJ)報(bào)道，對(duì)沖基金的管理資產(chǎn)規(guī)?，F(xiàn)已恢復(fù)至(且預(yù)計(jì)將超過(guò))三年前在信貸危機(jī)爆發(fā)前的歷史高點(diǎn)2萬(wàn)億美元。對(duì)沖基金再度遇熱，大量投資者追逐收益率并愿意為此承擔(dān)更高的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

????如果之前你認(rèn)為糟糕的頭條新聞會(huì)降低2011年成為信貸市場(chǎng)好年份的概率，現(xiàn)在可以重新思考一下了。美國(guó)銀行美林(BoA Merrill Lynch)預(yù)計(jì)杠桿貸款和高收益率債券發(fā)行額將分別達(dá)到3,000億美元和3,250億美元，顯著高于去年的2,330億美元和2,840億美元(新高)。不妨設(shè)想如果有一點(diǎn)好消息，情況將會(huì)怎樣。

????資深市場(chǎng)人士坦言他們驚詫于經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面不佳背景下信貸活動(dòng)的活躍。另一方面，企業(yè)盈利雖然稱不上強(qiáng)勁，但延續(xù)穩(wěn)步向上趨勢(shì)。利率和通脹仍保持較低水平。當(dāng)然，還有投資者口袋里那些已經(jīng)放不住的現(xiàn)金。

????雖然美國(guó)作為審慎財(cái)政管理者的名聲受損，沒(méi)人相信美國(guó)正朝著垃圾評(píng)級(jí)發(fā)展。但我們確實(shí)在大量買入垃圾債券。

????本文作者Randy Schwimmer是Churchill Financial的高級(jí)董事總經(jīng)理兼資本市場(chǎng)主管。

????When S&P took the unprecedented step last week of placing the U.S. on negative watch for a ratings downgrade from its once-unassailable triple-A perch, investors reacted the same way they have all year to the drumbeat of bad news: With a yawn.

????Seems like nothing will stop the bull market in both credit and equities. Not three wars, trillion dollar deficits, 9% unemployment, $5 gas prices, earthquakes, tsunamis, nuclear meltdowns, sovereign defaults, or snoozing air traffic controllers. Short of Snooki taking over the Fed Chairman's seat ("She's tan, she's fit, she's ready"), we don't see the "bid 'em up" momentum ending anytime soon.

????Certainly it's not slowing cash in-flows into retail loan funds, which saw another $532 million (per Lipper FMI) exiting muni and mutual accounts. That brings the year's total to over $12 billion, further exacerbating the technical imbalance between too much cash chasing too few deals.

????The "too few deals" part of that equation may be changing. Refinancings, repricings and dividend recaps – features of the frothy first quarter, but stalled during the geopolitical turmoil – are resuming with some pretty hefty candidates. IASIS, Manitowoc, and Owens-Illinois are all over $1 billion in size. Frac Tech Services, a new Asian fund LBO, will add $1.7 billion to the pipeline.

????Covenant-lites also seems poised for an upswing. LCD says that year-to-date cov-lite volume is a whopping $30.3 billion, up from a measly $1.7 billion for the same period last year. Besides IASIS, Neiman Marcus is shopping around for a $2 billion refi.

????While you're at it, add second-liens to the list of comeback kids. While volume is nowhere near the heady days of 2006-07, second-lien structures are finding willing buyers. For investors, the attraction is yield; spreads for the first quarter averaged L+975, including floors and OID. Issuers prefer second-lien to mezzanine, which is more expensive (12% cash plus 3% PIK), and typically carries higher prepayment penalties.

????The WSJ reports hedge fund AUM are restored to (and predicted to beat) the record $2 trillion levels set just before the credit crunch three years ago. Hedge managers again have plenty of buyers looking for yield and willing to stomach more risk to get it.

????If you thought scary headlines would hurt prospects for 2011 being a banner in the credit markets, think again. BoA Merrill Lynch forecasts leveraged loan and high-yield bond issuance to hit $300 billion and $325 billion, respectively. That's well ahead of last year's numbers of $233 billion for loans and $284 billion (a record) for bonds. Just imagine where we'd end up with a little good news.

????Market veterans confide their amazement how deal activity is motoring through all the negative economic fundamentals. On the other hand, corporate earnings, while hardly robust, continue their steady upward trend. And both interest rates and inflation remain comfortably low. And, of course, there's all that cash burning holes in investors' pockets.

????Despite its frayed reputation as a prudent fiscal manager, no one believes the U.S. itself is headed for junk status. But we're certainly filling up on the stuff.

????Randy Schwimmer is senior managing director and head of capital markets with Churchill Financial.