????過去5年美國房價進一步下探，跌幅已經(jīng)超過了大蕭條時期——而且，沒有跡象表明這樣的自由落體式下跌將在近期結(jié)束。

????據(jù)標準普爾(S&P)上周二報道，1季度Case-Shiller美國全國房價指數(shù)再度走低。

????該指數(shù)已較2006年高點跌去33%。多倫多Capital Economics的保羅?戴爾斯指出，相比之下，大蕭條期間的房價峰谷差也只有31%。

????這還不是上周二Case-Shiller的報告中唯一讓人驚訝的地方。IHS Global Insight的帕特里克?紐波特Newport指出，經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整的實際房價已回到1999年水平。

????戴爾斯稱，參照人均收入和就業(yè)者人均可支配收入，當前房價已比通常水平低24%——房價低廉堪比媲美福特總統(tǒng)時期的情形。

????不要以為這些數(shù)據(jù)表明房價短期內(nèi)隨時可能上漲。盡管當前房價與十年前持平，美國的經(jīng)濟前景和大多數(shù)美國人的收入前景看來要比1999年時差遠了。

????因為越來越多的美國工人不得不與廉價的海外勞動力競爭，導(dǎo)致人們收入下降。此外，美國人多年來用于彌補工資差距的負債消費現(xiàn)在看來也福禍難料。高額負債和政府支出收緊，可能在未來多年里抑制美國經(jīng)濟的增長，進而限制家庭收入增長。

????而且，最大的轉(zhuǎn)變可能是人們對于住房的觀點。在2000-2001年股市泡沫破滅后，許多美國人注意到了房產(chǎn)的持續(xù)升值，開始將房地產(chǎn)視為穩(wěn)賺不賠的資產(chǎn)類型。但房地產(chǎn)泡沫的破滅說明這種觀念已是明日黃花，這種傾向?qū)⑾拗埔庀蛸I家的基數(shù)，盡管房價已經(jīng)低得驚人。

????那么，在市場高點買入的房子多久后才能解套？不妨等到2025年。戴爾斯寫道，在大蕭條時代房價大跌后，房價花了19年才重回高點。如果你相信這是一次大蕭條，也許2025年值得期待。

????House prices have fallen further in the past five years than they did in the Great Depression – and there's no sign the free fall is about to stop.

????The Case-Shiller index of U.S. national house prices fell again in the first quarter, S&P reported Tuesday.

????The index is off 33% since it peaked in 2006. The peak-to-trough decline during the Great Depression, by contrast, was 31%, says Paul Dales of Capital Economics in Toronto.

????That's not the only eye-opener out of Tuesday's Case-Shiller report. Real house prices, adjusted for inflation, are back at levels last seen in 1999, says Patrick Newport of IHS Global Insight.

????Going by per capita income and disposable income per employee, housing is now 24% cheaper than usual, says Dales – making houses as big a bargain as they have been since Gerald Ford was stepping in White House garbage cans.

????But don't mistake those statistics for an argument that prices are likely to rise any time soon. While house prices are now on par with levels seen a decade ago, the economic outlook for the United States and most of its citizens looks a lot less optimistic now than it did in 1999.

????Incomes have been falling as more workers are forced to compete with cheaper overseas labor, and the leverage that Americans used for years to fill a growing wage gap now looks like a decidedly mixed blessing. Massive debt and government belt tightening are likely to keep a lid on the economy for years, further limiting household gains.

????And maybe the biggest shift is people's view toward housing. After the stock bust of 2000-2001 many Americans noticed their houses kept appreciating and started viewing real estate as a winning asset class. But the collapse of the housing bubble means that thought is mostly history, which will limit the pool of willing buyers even with prices at striking low levels.

????So how long till you get your head back above water on a house bought at the top of the market? Try 2025. In after the Depression-era housing bust, Dales writes, prices took 19 years to reclaim their previous peak. If you're in the market for a greatly depressing thought, it's a good one.