樓市低迷或?qū)⒁l(fā)第三輪量化寬松政策
死氣沉沉的房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)一瞥
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????美國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)二次探底不由令人擔(dān)心出現(xiàn)新一輪的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。然而，如果用下面的指標(biāo)來衡量的話，個(gè)人消費(fèi)和房地產(chǎn)事實(shí)上從未出現(xiàn)過反彈。 ????芝加哥聯(lián)儲(chǔ)銀行（Chicago Fed）跟蹤新房開工、施工許可、零售額和個(gè)人支出的個(gè)人消費(fèi)和房地產(chǎn)指數(shù)自2006年12月以來從未高于零。連續(xù)52個(gè)月保持負(fù)值，在該指數(shù)34年的歷史中是前所未有的。 ????該月度指數(shù)為零，就說明上述領(lǐng)域的活動(dòng)增長(zhǎng)與歷史趨勢(shì)一致。指數(shù)為正值，說明增長(zhǎng)快于歷史趨勢(shì)。指數(shù)為負(fù)值，說明增長(zhǎng)慢于歷史趨勢(shì)，或干脆就是萎縮。 ????由于該指數(shù)不跟蹤房?jī)r(jià)，回顧過去5年(見上圖)的走勢(shì)可以看到，深度下跌自2007年已經(jīng)開始，至今仍看不到任何反彈的跡象。今年的數(shù)值雖然高于2009年初的低點(diǎn)，但高出不多。 ????而且，由于房?jī)r(jià)下跌無力刺激消費(fèi)者支出及房屋建設(shè)，該指數(shù)看來很可能會(huì)在很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)保持低位。 ????房地產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)者支出的表現(xiàn)一度系于股市。但宏觀投資分析機(jī)構(gòu)Bianco Research 的霍華德?西蒙斯指出，自從2009年美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)開始買入美國(guó)國(guó)債以緩解金融壓力后，這種關(guān)聯(lián)就不存在了。 ????他將股市繼2008-2009年大跌后的上漲歸因于人們所說的量化寬松政策極為有限的成果，即在經(jīng)濟(jì)并無相應(yīng)改善的情況下，推動(dòng)了資產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲。但顯而易見，這種狀況不可能一直持續(xù)，近來投資者對(duì)此顯然也思慮重重。 ????一旦美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)終止購買美國(guó)國(guó)債，房地產(chǎn)活動(dòng)、個(gè)人消費(fèi)和股價(jià)之間的關(guān)聯(lián)得以重建，就必須引起警覺：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在幾個(gè)月的猶豫不決后，可能會(huì)推出第三輪量化寬松政策（QE3）。 |
????The double dip in U.S. house prices is raising fears of another recession. But by one measure housing and consumer spending never bounced back in the first place. ????The Chicago Fed's personal consumption and housing index, which tracks housing starts, building permits, retail sales and personal spending, hasn't been above zero since December 2006. That's a 52-month stretch that's unparalleled in the 34-year history of the index. ????The monthly index registers zero whenever activity in those categories grows in line with historical trend. A positive reading shows faster expansion and a negative reading either slower growth or outright contraction. ????Because the index doesn't track house prices, a look back at the past five years (see chart, right) shows a steep decline starting in 2007 but no rebound of any note. This year's readings are above the trough reached in early 2009, but not by much. ????And since falling housing prices won't do much to stimulate either consumer spending or homebuilding, it looks like a good bet that this index is going to stay at low levels for a good long time. ????Once upon a time housing and consumer spending were tied to the performance of the stock market. But that relationship hasn't held since the Fed started in 2009 to buy bonds to ease financial conditions, notes Howard Simons of Bianco Research. ????He attributes the stock market's rise since the 2008-2009 collapse to what you might call the very limited success of quantitative easing – fostering a rise in asset prices without an accompanying improvement in the economy. But it stands to reason that can't last forever, a thought that investors obviously have been chewing on a bit lately. ????If the end of Fed bond purchases restores the link between housing activity, personal consumption and stock prices, watch out below -- and then watch out, after a few months of handwringing, for QE3. |
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