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美國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)繁榮前途未卜

美國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)繁榮前途未卜

Kevin Kelleher 2011-06-23
硅谷的支持者們信誓旦旦地說不存在科技泡沫,但這可能只是因?yàn)楫?dāng)局者迷。

????今年,科技泡沫問題受到熱議,然而令人驚訝的是人們對(duì)此沒有形成共識(shí)。一方面,熱門網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司的估值高得離譜;另一方面,科技巨頭的估值卻出奇的低。一方面,2011年定價(jià)過高的IPO數(shù)量遠(yuǎn)低于1999年;但另一方面,投機(jī)主要是在私人市場(chǎng)上進(jìn)行。一方面,LinkedIn 和人人等新上市的公司股價(jià)已經(jīng)開始走低,然而另一方面,無論如何衡量,其股價(jià)仍然很高。

????盡管近來進(jìn)行IPO的公司數(shù)量低于歷史高值,但保險(xiǎn)地說,一個(gè)小規(guī)模的科技泡沫正在形成,目前它尚在可控范圍內(nèi),但并不安定。問題在于這個(gè)泡沫會(huì)膨脹到多大。它會(huì)發(fā)展成1999年那樣的網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司狂潮嗎?是否會(huì)出現(xiàn)這樣的情況:需求基本全都集中在Groupon,、Zynga和Twitter等大名鼎鼎的公司身上?Facebook即將進(jìn)行的首次公開募股是烈火烹油,還是將標(biāo)志著一場(chǎng)小規(guī)模的災(zāi)難即將到達(dá)高潮?

????在這場(chǎng)爭(zhēng)論中,經(jīng)常被忽視的一點(diǎn)是,這些問題的答案以及這個(gè)新的科技泡沫的結(jié)局取決于科技行業(yè)之外的因素。即便在“大蕭條”時(shí)期,很多網(wǎng)絡(luò)創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)仍得以茁壯成長(zhǎng);而今天,關(guān)于云計(jì)算、移動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)以及社交網(wǎng)站等主題的報(bào)道如此狹隘,常常讓人感覺是在“自說自話”。這是另一種形式的科技泡沫,一個(gè)甚少被人談及的科技泡沫:這些評(píng)論和討論似乎都認(rèn)為網(wǎng)絡(luò)行業(yè)之外的世界無足輕重,似乎網(wǎng)絡(luò)初創(chuàng)企業(yè)是在自己的小世界里運(yùn)營(yíng)。

????放在幾年前,這種觀點(diǎn)可能是正確的。因?yàn)樵诋?dāng)時(shí),融資一家互聯(lián)網(wǎng)新創(chuàng)企業(yè)只需從風(fēng)投手中拿到幾百萬美元,養(yǎng)活一小群天才工程師即可。不過現(xiàn)在不管用了,很多公司的規(guī)模大了很多,它們?cè)絹碓絻A向于在公開市場(chǎng)中籌措上億美元的資金。此外,這種觀點(diǎn)忽略了這兩次互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫的最大區(qū)別——現(xiàn)在的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)比1999年時(shí)要嚴(yán)峻得多。

????上世紀(jì)90年代晚期,能夠震動(dòng)市場(chǎng)的危機(jī)類似于長(zhǎng)期資本管理(Long-Term Capital Management)危機(jī),后者是一家對(duì)沖基金,最后讓美國(guó)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備系統(tǒng)(Federal Reserve,簡(jiǎn)稱美聯(lián)儲(chǔ))耗資36億美元救援。那時(shí),人們最擔(dān)心的是千年蟲問題,這種“虛幻”的危機(jī)促使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)拼命印鈔以便讓各個(gè)公司能夠升級(jí)自己的軟件。當(dāng)然,事實(shí)并非如此,人們把這些輕易獲得的資金都無拘無束地投入到高新科技股市中。

????今天,我們回想起90年代的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)時(shí)仍然心情苦悶,但它更像是高中時(shí)期的苦澀記憶,與考砸之后的成績(jī)單和被人拒絕的舞會(huì)邀請(qǐng)有關(guān)。而現(xiàn)在我們所經(jīng)歷的成年期的苦難要痛苦得多。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)又一次開動(dòng)印鈔機(jī),進(jìn)行了兩輪量化寬松政策——實(shí)質(zhì)上是將大量資金注入病態(tài)的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。不過這一次不是去幫助企業(yè)修補(bǔ)差勁的軟件,而是利用信貸方式去修補(bǔ)因房地產(chǎn)泡沫崩盤而幾乎凍結(jié)的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。然而有一件事沒有改變:這些廉價(jià)的資金再次偏離方向,進(jìn)入了不該進(jìn)入的領(lǐng)域,而炙手可熱的高新技術(shù)新創(chuàng)企業(yè)就是其中之一。這些資金一直在抬高這些公司的估值。

????現(xiàn)在,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)必須決定是否繼續(xù)進(jìn)行量化寬松政策,向市場(chǎng)注入更多資金。答案最早于本周就可揭曉。上一輪即第二輪量化寬松政策對(duì)美國(guó)就業(yè)率的提升效果可謂差強(qiáng)人意,不過在過去一年,它使得投資美國(guó)股市又變得有利可圖起來?,F(xiàn)在大家仍在爭(zhēng)論是否應(yīng)該繼續(xù)進(jìn)行第三輪量化寬松政策。許多人都表示進(jìn)行。不過一旦拋棄這一政策,之前流入互聯(lián)網(wǎng)新創(chuàng)企業(yè)的充裕流動(dòng)性就可能會(huì)迅速枯竭。換句話說,注入這次科技泡沫的空氣就會(huì)大量減少。

????對(duì)于在股票交易平臺(tái)Sharespost購(gòu)買了Facebook股票,期望在IPO時(shí)大賺一票的人而言,第三輪量化寬松政策也許是好消息。但對(duì)其他人卻并非如此。首先,隨之到來的過剩流動(dòng)性將會(huì)抬高商品價(jià)格。這意味著個(gè)人消費(fèi)者們?cè)谄秃褪称飞系闹С鰧?huì)增加,而反過來,他們花在iPhone 5及其應(yīng)用程序等方面的個(gè)人可支配收入就會(huì)減少。更重要是,實(shí)行第三輪量化寬松政策意味著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一定發(fā)生了非常嚴(yán)重的事情,比如說希臘債務(wù)出現(xiàn)違約,以至于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)認(rèn)為除了向市場(chǎng)注入更多資金外別無選擇。

????目前看來希臘的違約機(jī)率越來越高,市場(chǎng)最近計(jì)算其發(fā)生機(jī)率為78%。來自SoMa區(qū)(South of Market區(qū),位于舊金山,有大量科技企業(yè)聚集——譯注)的首席財(cái)務(wù)官可能要問,這對(duì)中國(guó)茶葉的價(jià)格有何影響?或者更直接點(diǎn):希臘國(guó)債價(jià)格和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)新創(chuàng)企業(yè)的IPO有什么關(guān)系?

????我的答案如下:它們之間的關(guān)系肯定比上世紀(jì)90年代要大得多。時(shí)至今日,許多管理層仍對(duì)2008年的金融風(fēng)暴心有余悸,籠罩在他們心頭的不僅僅是希臘債務(wù)危機(jī),而是這種危機(jī)可能會(huì)蔓延到其它債務(wù)纏身的歐洲國(guó)家;如果美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)把事情搞砸了,情況糟糕到一定的程度,這種危機(jī)甚至還會(huì)蔓延到美國(guó)。在如此動(dòng)蕩的時(shí)期,資金流可能會(huì)迅速枯竭。在這個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大于機(jī)遇的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境里,真的有人會(huì)對(duì)Facebook這種估值高達(dá)其收入50倍的公司感興趣嗎?

????在SoMa,很多辦公室是由倉庫改裝而成,里面的人沒有幾個(gè)在討論這類問題。相反,他們談?wù)摰氖墙鹑谂菽篏roupon的IPO將有怎樣的表現(xiàn),F(xiàn)acebook何時(shí)將進(jìn)行IPO,而Zynga又將籌措多少錢。似乎沒有人太擔(dān)心全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的潛在危機(jī)可能撲滅所有的IPO需求——無論是高新技術(shù)還是其它。他們都沉浸在一個(gè)“色彩斑斕”、“與世隔絕”的泡沫里,而互聯(lián)網(wǎng)行業(yè)就是在這個(gè)泡沫里發(fā)展壯大。最終,事實(shí)可能證明這個(gè)泡沫才是最危險(xiǎn)的。

????譯者:項(xiàng)航

????For all the talk this year about a tech bubble, there is surprisingly little agreement. On the one hand, valuations of hot web companies are irrationally high; on the other big tech valuations are inexplicably low. On the one hand, the number of overpriced IPOs in 2011 is nowhere near that of 1999; but on the other, most of the speculation is happening on private markets. On the one hand, stocks of recent debuts like LinkedIn (LNKD) and RenRen (RENN) are down from their initial highs; but on the other they are still expensive by any sensible measure.

????Even with recent IPOs down from the high points of their oh-so-brief histories, It's safe to say there is a small-scale tech bubble in the making -- relatively contained, but unsettling nonetheless. The better question is how big it could get. Will it metastasize like the dot-com frenzy of 1999? Will there be little demand beyond marquee names like Groupon, Zynga or Twitter? Will an imminent Facebook IPO pour fuel onto the bonfire, or simply mark the culmination of what will prove a modest brushfire?

????What's often overlooked in this debate is that the answers to these questions -- and therefore the fate of the new tech bubble -- lies outside the tech industry. Many web startups thrived even through the dark days of the Great Recession, and today the coverage of topics like cloud computing, the mobile web and social networks is so insular it often feels self-absorbed. This is the other tech bubble, one that few people are talking about: All this commentary and discussion is happening as if the world outside the web industry didn't matter so much, as if web startups operated inside their safe little bubble of reality.

????That attitude might have worked better a few years ago, when financing a web startup meant raising a few million from VCs to support a small crew of highly talented engineers. It's not so true now that many companies are much bigger, increasingly turning to public markets to tap hundreds of millions of dollars. And it overlooks the biggest difference between the dot-com bubble and today's web bubble: In 2011, the financial world is a hell of a lot scarier than it was in 1999.

????In the late 90s, a market-rattling crisis meant something like Long-Term Capital Management, a hedge fund that cost the Federal Reserve $3.6 billion to bail out. This was an era when people seriously fretted about the Millennium Bug, a phantom crisis that prompted the Fed to make money cheaply available so companies could upgrade their corporate software. Instead, of course, people took all that free money and invested it all too freely in tech stocks.

????Today, we look back on those 90s-era crises almost wistfully -- in retrospect, they feel like painful high-school memories: a bad report card or a rejected prom invitation. The tribulations of our adult lives feel much graver now. The Fed has again been busy printing money through two rounds of quantitative easing -- in essence, injecting money into a morbid U.S. economy -- only this time it's not to help companies fix clunky software but to try and get lenders to fix an economy that nearly froze up after the housing bubble popped. But one thing hasn't changed: All that cheap money is sloshing its way into unintended investments -- including red-hot tech startups. And that money has been driving up their valuations.

????Now the Fed has to decide whether it's going to extend quantitative easing and inject even more cash into markets. The answer could come as early as this week. The last round, called QE2, had at best mixed results in creating new jobs in the U.S., but during the past year it made it fun and profitable to invest in U.S. stocks. There is another debate happening over whether QE2 should be followed by QE3. Many voices are arguing it shouldn't. But without QE3, a good deal of liquidity that has been flowing into web startups could dry up very quickly. In other words, much less air for the tech bubble.

????QE3 might come as welcome news to someone who bought into Facebook on Sharespost and wants a lucrative profit from its IPO. But it's bad news elsewhere. For one, all that excess liquidity is helping to drive up commodity prices. Which means consumers are spending more money on gas and food. Which in turn means less disposable income for an iPhone 5 and so many apps that make it useful. More immediately, QE3 would mean something so awful has happened in the global economy -- say, Greece defaulting on its debts -- that the Fed felt it had no choice but to inject more cash into the markets.

????It's looking more and more like Greece is going to default -- the markets have recently been calculating that there's a 78% chance of this happening. A CFO in SoMa might ask, what does this have to do with the price of tea in China? Or more to the point: What does the price of Greek bonds have to do with the IPO of a web startup?

????Here's my short answer: A lot more than it did in the 1990s. Today, money managers are still skittish from the crash of 2008. It's not just Greece weighing on their minds, but that the contagion could spread to other European nations with heavy debt -- even to the U.S., if Congress bungles things badly enough. In such a volatile world, capital flows can dry up as fast as the morning dew. And in an economy where risk looms larger than opportunity, will anyone really be interested in a company, like Facebook, valued at 50 times its revenue?

????Few people in SoMa's converted warehouses seem to be talking about any of this. They are talking instead about financial bubbles: How the Groupon IPO will fare, when Facebook will file, how much Zynga will try to raise. Nobody seems terribly concerned about potential crises in global markets that could wipe away demand for any IPO -- tech or otherwise. They are toiling inside the sunny, insular bubble that the web industry has grown up inside. And in the end, that may prove to be the more dangerous bubble of all.

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