????盡管中國的主要貿(mào)易國市場仍存在諸多的問題，然而在6月份，中國備受關(guān)注的貿(mào)易順差仍然飆升至223億美元，創(chuàng)7個月以來的新高。盡管美國高居不下的失業(yè)率和歐洲日漸嚴(yán)重的債務(wù)問題仍一直困擾著當(dāng)?shù)叵M(fèi)者，但中國的出口量與去年同期相比仍增長了17.9%。

????這組數(shù)據(jù)強(qiáng)有力地證明了中國出口所具有的彈性。但這并不一定是個好消息，因為作為世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)實體，中國正在努力謀求更平衡的增長，將其經(jīng)濟(jì)重心從海外轉(zhuǎn)向國內(nèi)市場。中國政府本周早些時候發(fā)布的這組新數(shù)據(jù)可能導(dǎo)致美國和其他國家藉此向北京施壓，要求其進(jìn)一步加快人民幣增值步伐。

????盡管中國的貨幣在幫助本國向他國出口產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)方面功不可沒，但是中國6月的貿(mào)易順差卻另有其因。

????自2010年6月中國開始允許人民幣升值以來，人民幣兌美元匯率已經(jīng)上漲了5.5個百分點(diǎn)。然而這個結(jié)果對某些人來說仍是微不足道的。美國財長提姆西?蓋特納早已公開敦促中國加快人民幣升值步伐。部分美國立法委員已開始建議國家采取更加嚴(yán)厲的懲罰措施來對付那些人為低估本國貨幣價值的國家。美國和其他一些國家正逐漸擺脫金融危機(jī)的影響，外貿(mào)已經(jīng)成為他們拉動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的救命稻草。有鑒于此，美國國內(nèi)對人民幣的這種態(tài)度就不足為奇了。

????但是斟酌一下那些針對人民幣的負(fù)面評價，我們不禁要問，這個黑鍋真的應(yīng)該由人民幣來背嗎？

????6月份的貿(mào)易順差還反映出了另一個事實，中國的進(jìn)口明顯放慢了腳步?？傔M(jìn)口額達(dá)1，397億美元，增幅19.3%，創(chuàng)20個月以來的增幅新低。原因之一是因為中國政府正通過緊縮貨幣來遏制食品和資產(chǎn)價格的進(jìn)一步增長。

????除此之外，進(jìn)口放緩的另一個原因是投資者對歐洲債務(wù)問題的擔(dān)憂引發(fā)了一些商品價格的下跌，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)金融分析機(jī)構(gòu)IHS Global Insight的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)總監(jiān)托德?李評論道。在剛剛過去的三月份，原油、鐵礦石等諸多貨物價格的快速上漲導(dǎo)致了中國出人意料地爆出了73億美元的貿(mào)易逆差。但是在過去的11周當(dāng)中，正當(dāng)希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)動蕩，瀕臨債務(wù)違約邊緣之時，商品價格出現(xiàn)了下滑。6月，由于國際原油價格降低了5個百分點(diǎn)，中國進(jìn)口原油掉價23億美元。

????當(dāng)然，一個月的數(shù)據(jù)僅夠窺豹一斑。但如果我們以年為單位來看這個趨勢，我們會發(fā)現(xiàn)中國的進(jìn)出口差額正逐步下滑。

????2008年中國的貿(mào)易順差為2，970億美元，2009年跌至19，80億美元，2010年再次縮小至1，850美元。穆迪風(fēng)險管理咨詢（Moody's Analytics）預(yù)測，中國今年的順差將進(jìn)一步下滑----原因是因為目前貿(mào)易順差已達(dá)到450億美元，而2009年同期為560億美元。

????盡管美國商務(wù)部（U.S. Commerce Department）本周二報道稱，美國的貿(mào)易逆差已經(jīng)達(dá)到了近兩年半以來的新高，但這并不應(yīng)該成為給中國施壓并要求其加速人民幣升值的理由。否則美國難免會被扣上虛偽的帽子。華爾街日報（The Wall Street Journal）周一指出，美國出口之所以能取得快速增長，弱勢美元幫了大忙。2010年，美國對外出口商品及相關(guān)服務(wù)共1.3萬億美元，較2002年的6，970億美元有大幅的增長。也正是在2002年，美元匯價開始了從高位回落的旅程。

????China's closely watched trade surplus swelled to $22.3 billion in June, hitting a seven-month high amid troubles in some of the country's biggest overseas markets. Chinese exports rose 17.9% compared with the same period a year ago even as high unemployment in the U.S. and escalating debt problems in parts of Europe continued constraining consumers.

????The strong numbers underscore the resilience of Chinese exports. But that's not exactly good news as officials try to rebalance growth so that the world's second-largest economy is more reliant on selling goods and services at home than abroad. And the figures, released by China's government earlier this week, could boost pressure on Beijing from the U.S. and other countries to let the yuan appreciate faster.

????Although China's currency has generally helped the country sell goods and services cheaply abroad, June's trade surplus has more to do with factors beyond the yuan's value.

????Since China began to let its currency rise in June 2010, it has strengthened more than 5.5% against the U.S. dollar. The efforts aren't enough for some, however. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has publicly urged China to accelerate appreciation of its currency. And some U.S. lawmakers have suggested more punitive actions to deal with nations believed to be artificially keeping their currencies weak. This isn't all too surprising, given that the U.S. and others recovering from the financial crisis have been counting on exports to grow their economies.

????But for all the bad rap the yuan gets, it's hard not to wonder if it's really deserved.

????June's trade surplus reflects a significant slowdown in Chinese imports, which rose 19.3% to $139.7 billion – the slowest pace in 20 months. This comes as China's government tries to tame steadily rising food and property prices by way of monetary tightening.

????What's more, the slowdown in imports can be attributed to the recent fall of certain commodity prices as investors worry about Europe's debt crisis, says Todd Lee, global economics director with IHS Global Insight. It was just in March when rapidly rising prices for shipments of everything from oil to iron ore helped China unexpectedly post a $7.3 billion trade deficit. But in the past 11 weeks as Greece teetered on the edge of default, commodity prices have dropped. In June, Chinese imports of crude oil fell by $2.3 billion – mostly due to a 5% drop in global oil prices during the month.

????Of course, the monthly statistics only tell part of the story. If we look at the bigger trend on a year-over-year basis, Chinese exports relative to imports have actually been declining.

????China's trade surplus reached $297 billion in 2008, but fell to $198 billion in 2009. It narrowed further in 2010 to $185 billion. Moody's Analytics forecasts the surplus is on track to fall even more this year – pointing that it has reached $45 billion so far, compared with $56 billion over the same period last year.

????And even though the U.S. Commerce Department reported today that the U.S. trade deficit reached its highest level in May in two and a half years, this shouldn't be taken as reason to put further pressure on China to appreciate the yuan at a faster pace. After all, it would be sort of hypocritical. As The Wall Street Journal pointed out Monday, U.S. exports have gained in a big way with a weaker dollar. In 2010, U.S. goods and services sold abroad totaled $1.3 trillion, up significantly from $697 billion in 2002 when the greenback's value began falling from its peak.