????市場恐慌正從希臘、葡萄牙及愛爾蘭周邊災(zāi)荒之地向看似堅挺的歐洲核心蔓延。本月，意大利、西班牙甚至是法國的債券收益率一路飆升（見右圖）。直到最近，法國依然被認(rèn)為擁有僅次于德國的良好信譽(yù)。

????市場對于周五東部時間中午宣布的測試結(jié)果必定是關(guān)注有加。西班牙銀行的得分將分為引人關(guān)注。西班牙房產(chǎn)泡沫泡沫破滅后，全國失業(yè)率超過20%，導(dǎo)致該國資金仍在泡沫破滅后的余震中苦苦掙扎。

????但是認(rèn)為抗壓測試壓力標(biāo)準(zhǔn)足夠高的人并不多：貝倫貝格銀行（Berenberg Bank）的尼克?安德森指出，意大利銀行目前十分兇險，其政府10年期國債收益率只有5.9%——這一數(shù)字僅僅稍高于上周的現(xiàn)行收益率5.6%。

????此外，如果歐洲決策者們拿不出更有力的措施來解決這場債務(wù)瘟疫，這次的測試也就只能淪為一紙空文。如果他們繼續(xù)任憑恐慌肆虐，銀行將面臨巨大的壓力，就算紙面功夫做的再好也是枉然。

????“意大利的銀行已經(jīng)飽受政府債務(wù)的拖累，這也導(dǎo)致了人們對新一輪銀行危機(jī)的擔(dān)憂”，瑞銀（UBS）戰(zhàn)略師邁克?萊恩在上周給客戶的信中寫道，“這一局面使意大利的官員們和歐盟決策者們必須承擔(dān)更大的風(fēng)險”。

????到目前為止，歐洲各國對于希臘及其他國家的問題反應(yīng)各異，但不外乎拖延塞責(zé)和裝聾作啞。然而，歐洲部長們已開始吵嚷著要求采取新的解決辦法——但是進(jìn)展緩慢。市場觀察家對原本計劃于上周五召開歐洲財政首腦聚會寄予了厚望，但這次會議竟然擱淺。

????這次會議延期被視為一個倒退，原因是分析人士對于周一歐元區(qū)發(fā)表的集體聲明青睞有加，該聲明敦促盡快采取措施“改善歐元區(qū)整體應(yīng)對連鎖風(fēng)險的能力，這包括提高救助基金的靈活性和規(guī)?！?。該救助基金就是眾所周知的歐洲財政穩(wěn)定基金（European Financial Stability Fund），簡稱EFSF。

????擴(kuò)大救助基金的放貸規(guī)模和放寬其運營政策將使得決策者們有機(jī)會大展身手，幫助減輕希臘債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)，而不是簡單的一拖再拖。

????德國雖然是歐洲政治聯(lián)盟的主要受益者，但一直是救助基金的守財奴。本周，德國發(fā)表聲明說，歐元成員國可以使用EFSF以折扣價贖回本國的債券——這一新政或許為解決希臘危機(jī)提供了一條更為長遠(yuǎn)的出路。

????德國的這一轉(zhuǎn)變可能意味著新的希臘救助計劃，該計劃遵循了上個月歐洲政策研究中心（Center for European Policy Studies）智囊團(tuán)丹尼爾?格羅斯和德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家托馬斯?梅爾聯(lián)合提出的思路。

????他們撰文指出，救助基金放貸規(guī)模擴(kuò)大后，決策者們可用新發(fā)行的救助基金債券以極低的折扣價來置換希臘現(xiàn)有的國債，以此結(jié)束希臘債務(wù)恐慌。

????置換方案可以幫助希臘償還過期債務(wù)，進(jìn)而改善希臘的財政狀況，而此前計劃只是簡單地呼吁延長債務(wù)期限。置換計劃實施后，EFSF將成為希臘政府的主要債權(quán)人，而且基金也可以利用債務(wù)削減這一杠桿迫使希臘深化經(jīng)濟(jì)改革的力度。

????格羅斯梅爾的計劃也有可能加速違約，而這正是歐洲領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者們一直竭力避免的后果。但是這兩位作者寫道，終端評級機(jī)構(gòu)的降級評級“應(yīng)該是個可控的問題”，因為希臘要邁向未來，這一點已在預(yù)料之中。

????然而，這可能只是一廂情愿的想法，而且有人懷疑即便贖回了希臘的債務(wù)，也無法為歐洲爭取到太多時間。蘇格蘭皇家銀行（RBS）杰克斯?凱勞克斯在最近的報告中提到，要徹底解決歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)，各成員國必須向EFSF注資共計2萬億歐元（2.8萬億美元）——即便是歐洲鼎盛時期，如此規(guī)模的出資也絕不是零花錢這么簡單。

????即便如此，任何債務(wù)計劃都無力顯著改善希臘目前的狀況，這一點是毋庸置疑的，因為不管這次苛刻的抗壓測試結(jié)果如何，人們?nèi)匀粫?dān)心弱國經(jīng)濟(jì)和銀行的過度透支會逐漸走向失控。

????高盛（Goldman Sachs）的分析師注意到，本周，意大利銀行勢頭強(qiáng)勁，完成了140億美元的融資。但是他們警告說，“意大利銀行業(yè)與其他歐洲銀行部門的緊密聯(lián)系最終將帶來相對較高的風(fēng)險，該風(fēng)險會加劇意大利主權(quán)債務(wù)和銀行市場的動蕩，從而為其他國家?guī)韲?yán)重的后果”

????自從去年進(jìn)行的上一輪抗壓測試以來，投資者們對本輪新的、更為嚴(yán)格的抗壓測試始終保持著密切關(guān)注。然而去年的測試壓根就沒能打消市場對歐洲銀行實力的疑慮。尤其是愛爾蘭銀行通過了上輪測試，使其效力蕩然無存。因為幾個月后，愛爾蘭便開始索要幾十億歐元的救助金。

????業(yè)界希望第二次的測試能更管用——但這最終還是由管歐元區(qū)的人說了算。

????“如果西班牙和意大利再摻和進(jìn)來，一切努力都將是徒勞的”，安德森說，“除非市場能親眼看到一個可靠的債務(wù)危機(jī)解決方案，否則銀行界的復(fù)興無法持久”。

????歐洲盛夏，壓力綿綿無絕期。

????Market panic has been creeping from the impoverished periphery of Greece, Portugal and Ireland toward the supposedly heartier core of Europe. Bond yields have risen sharply this month (see chart, right) in Italy, Spain and even France, which until lately has been viewed as second only to Germany as a sound European credit.

????The stress test results promise to get full market attention when they are released at noon Eastern time Friday. Scores for Spanish banks, laboring in the aftermath of a massive housing bubble whose collapse left unemployment north of 20%, will get special scrutiny.

????But few believe the stress tests will be all that stressful: The adverse scenario for Italian banks includes a yield of 5.9% on 10-year Italian government bonds, notes Nick Anderson at Berenberg Bank -- just a hair above the 5.6% going rate this week.

????What's more, the entire exercise will be moot if Europe's policymakers fail to take a more aggressive approach to the debt crisis sweeping the Continent. If they don't stem the panic soon, the banks will come under enormous pressure, regardless of how good they look on paper.

????"Italian banks are heavily exposed to government debt, raising concerns that a new phase of the banking crisis could emerge," writes UBS strategist Mike Ryan in a note to clients this week. "This raises the stakes for both elected officials in Italy and policymakers within the EU."

????So far, the official response to the problems in Greece and elsewhere has amounted to a variation on extend and pretend. European ministers have started making noises about a different approach -- but progress is slow. Market watchers were hoping for a big announcement out of a European finance minister meeting scheduled for Friday, but that event has now been pushed back.

????The delay stands as a setback because analysts' interest was piqued by a Euro group statement Monday pledging readiness to "improve the euro area's systemic capacity to resist contagion risk, including enhancing the flexibility and the scope" of the bailout fund known as the European Financial Stability Fund, or EFSF.

????Making the bailout fund bigger and loosening the terms under which it operates could free policymakers to actually cut into Greece's debt load, rather than simply delaying the reckoning.

????Germany, which has been stingy on bailouts despite being a major beneficiary of European political union, said this week that euro members can use the EFSF to buy back their own bonds at a discount – a shift that could presage a more long-lasting solution to the Greek crisis.

????Germany's flip could point toward a new Greek bailout plan along the lines sketched out last month by Daniel Gros of the Center for European Policy Studies think tank and Deutsche Bank economist Thomas Mayer.

????They wrote that policymakers, using an expanded European bailout fund, could end the Greek panic by offering to swap existing Greek bonds for newly issued bailout-fund debt at a steep discount.

????The swap would improve Greece's financial position by slashing its outstanding debt, rather than simply extending debt maturities as some previous plans have advocated. It would also leave the EFSF as the Greek government's primary creditor – which would give the fund the leverage to make the debt reduction conditional on further economic reforms.

????The Gros-Mayer plan would have the disadvantage of provoking the default that European leaders have taken such pains to avoid. But the authors write that a terminal rating agency downgrade "should be a manageable problem" since it would come in the context of greater clarity of Greece's future.

????That may be wishful thinking, and there are those who doubt a Greek debt buyback would actually buy much time for Europe. Jacques Cailloux of RBS writes in a recent report that truly resolving Europe's debt crisis would require member states to fund the EFSF to the tune of 2 trillion euros ($2.8 trillion) -- which isn't exactly pocket change even in the best of times.

????Even so, it's clear that any Greek debt plan would mark an improvement on the status quo, as worries about the weaker economies and banks' exposure to them threaten to spiral out of control, regardless of what the tougher stress tests show.

????Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted this week that Italian banks themselves appear strong, having completed $14 billion in capital raising. But they warned that "the high degree of interconnection between the Italian banking and other European banking sectors … ultimately implies a relatively high risk that further tensions within the Italian sovereign and banking market could have severe consequences for other countries."

????Investors have had their eyes on the results of the new, stricter stress tests ever since the ones last year failed so miserably to quell market fears about the strength of Europe's banks. That effort foundered when Irish banks passed the test, only to require tens of billions of euros in new bailout money just months later.

????The hope is that the second time round will be more useful -- though that is ultimately up to the guys who run the euro zone.

????"All bets are off if Spain and Italy are included in the debate," says Anderson. "Until the market sees a credible solution to the debt crisis, there will be no sustained" banking sector rally.

????And no end to Europe's summer of stress.