????在尼克松和福特兩屆政府中，亨利?基辛格都主導(dǎo)了美國(guó)的對(duì)外政策，最近他出版了新書(shū)《論中國(guó)》（On China）?！敦?cái)富》（Fortune）雜志主編賽安迪采訪了這位傳奇外交家。

????問(wèn)：基辛格博士，您能否談?wù)劗?dāng)前中美關(guān)系的性質(zhì)？

????答：中美兩國(guó)是全球的兩個(gè)主要經(jīng)濟(jì)引擎，在全球范圍內(nèi)彼此互動(dòng)，因此，全世界的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與和平都取決于這一關(guān)系的性質(zhì)。就當(dāng)前這一時(shí)刻而言，兩國(guó)政府都認(rèn)識(shí)到這一雙邊關(guān)系的重要性，但尚未能成功地將此種認(rèn)識(shí)轉(zhuǎn)化為面向未來(lái)的共同目標(biāo)。他們頗為擅長(zhǎng)給政府首腦會(huì)議撰寫(xiě)公報(bào)，卻無(wú)法真正彌合上述鴻溝。兩國(guó)都正在朝著全新但尚無(wú)定論的未來(lái)前進(jìn)，能否以一種平行的方式界定未來(lái)？這值得雙方努力。兩國(guó)的未來(lái)目標(biāo)并不一定得完全相同，但至少要避免對(duì)抗戰(zhàn)略。

????問(wèn)：基辛格博士，從您1971年首次訪華以來(lái)，中國(guó)發(fā)生了巨大變化，這是否符合您當(dāng)時(shí)的預(yù)測(cè)？

????答：當(dāng)我第一次踏訪中國(guó)時(shí)，那兒基本上沒(méi)有汽車(chē)，很少有消費(fèi)品，也沒(méi)有高樓大廈，他們的科技也很落后。尼克松總統(tǒng)訪華時(shí)，我們被迫攜帶了一個(gè)地面衛(wèi)星接收站，以便有效地與國(guó)內(nèi)溝通，同時(shí)便利媒體報(bào)道。中國(guó)方面買(mǎi)下了這個(gè)地面站，如此顯得他們不是在運(yùn)作一個(gè)美國(guó)地面站——這是典型的中國(guó)式面子問(wèn)題。直到1976年，盡管中美兩國(guó)已經(jīng)開(kāi)放貿(mào)易5年了，中美之間的貿(mào)易額還比不上洪都拉斯與美國(guó)之間的貿(mào)易額。直到1979年，我們現(xiàn)在所談?wù)摰倪M(jìn)展都還是無(wú)法想象的，而且直到80年代后期，中國(guó)的發(fā)展才開(kāi)始加速。因此，這主要是最近20年的現(xiàn)象。

????問(wèn)：您是否擔(dān)心中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)存在過(guò)熱風(fēng)險(xiǎn)？對(duì)于中國(guó)政府領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層掌握市場(chǎng)驅(qū)動(dòng)型經(jīng)濟(jì)體的能力，您是否有信心？

????答：他們現(xiàn)在運(yùn)作的本來(lái)就是一種市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)形式，現(xiàn)在，他們嘗試做到的是開(kāi)發(fā)一套“中間體系”，我認(rèn)為這一目標(biāo)將會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)。中國(guó)沿海地區(qū)將會(huì)達(dá)到發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的水平，而一些內(nèi)陸地區(qū)的落后程度可與世界上最不發(fā)達(dá)的國(guó)家相提并論，運(yùn)行這樣一種經(jīng)濟(jì)體將給領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層帶來(lái)挑戰(zhàn)，可以說(shuō)是巨大的挑戰(zhàn)。該問(wèn)題能否完全通過(guò)市場(chǎng)機(jī)制解決？這還不得而知，但我不認(rèn)為這是最主要的問(wèn)題。經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)熱的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)確實(shí)存在，中國(guó)建設(shè)了這么多建筑，甚至是新城，而需求可能下降，兩者之間存在矛盾，可能引發(fā)房地產(chǎn)泡沫。

????不過(guò)，關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題將是如何把這些迅速發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)，與正在調(diào)整之中的政治結(jié)構(gòu)統(tǒng)一起來(lái)。毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，中國(guó)將嘗試在國(guó)際舞臺(tái)上把經(jīng)濟(jì)成就轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)檎斡绊懥?，從這個(gè)角度來(lái)看，總是會(huì)存在某種形式的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，但不一定會(huì)是零和游戲。

????問(wèn)：中國(guó)似乎很快就將成為全世界最龐大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，這看起來(lái)不可避免，對(duì)美國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，這是否值得擔(dān)憂？

????答：的確會(huì)發(fā)生這種情況，但我們必須從適當(dāng)?shù)慕嵌葋?lái)看待它。中國(guó)的人均國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值仍將只有美國(guó)的約五分之一，因?yàn)槠浣?jīng)濟(jì)總量需要平攤到大得多的人口上。況且，中國(guó)的人口構(gòu)成變化也將帶來(lái)巨大問(wèn)題，2025-2030年后，中國(guó)老齡人數(shù)量將會(huì)繼續(xù)膨脹，而可照顧這些老人的青壯年人口所占比例卻會(huì)不斷萎縮。最后，我們的行動(dòng)不應(yīng)該以試圖勝過(guò)中國(guó)為目標(biāo)，而應(yīng)該從我們眼中對(duì)美國(guó)社會(huì)以及對(duì)世界和平至關(guān)重要的因素出發(fā)。不過(guò)，這是一種前所未有的情況，要成功實(shí)現(xiàn)合作，雙方都必須要有我剛才描述的觀點(diǎn)，這不是美國(guó)單方面就能實(shí)現(xiàn)的。我認(rèn)為這對(duì)和平與發(fā)展至關(guān)重要。

????譯者：小宇

????Henry Kissinger, who played a dominant role in U.S. foreign policy during the Nixon and Ford administrations, is the author of a new book, On China. He spoke with Fortune managing editor Andy Serwer.

????Q: Dr. Kissinger, can you talk about the nature of the relationship between the United States and China today?

????A: We are the two major economic engines in the world that interact with each other all over the world. So economic progress and peace of the world depend on the nature of that relationship. At this particular moment, both governments understand the importance of the relationship but have not succeeded yet in translating it into a common project for the future. They have been better in writing communiqués for the meetings of heads of government than in filling in this gap. Both countries are moving into a new and somewhat undefined future and need to work on whether they can define it in a parallel way. It doesn't have to be identical, but it has, at a minimum, to avoid strategies of confrontation.

????Did you ever anticipate, Dr. Kissinger, how much China would change from your first visit in 1971?

?? When I first came to China, there were practically no automobiles, very limited consumer goods, and no high-rise buildings. The technology was fairly backward. When President Nixon came to China, we had to bring a ground station with us in order to communicate effectively and for our media to communicate. It was typical of Chinese pride that they bought the ground station from us so that they were not operating an American ground station. As late as 1976, five years after the opening, trade with China was less than the trade with Honduras. This whole process we are talking about now didn't get conceived until 1979 and didn't really get momentum until the late '80s. So this is a 20-year phenomenon.

????Are you concerned that the Chinese economy could overheat, and are you confident that the Chinese government leaders are able to handle a market-driven economy?

????They already are running a kind of market economy. Now, what they are trying to do and what I think will happen is the emergence of a system that is somewhat in between. They will have the challenge of developing an economy where the coastal regions are at the level of advanced economies, and the interior is at the level of some of the least developed countries in the world. That's a huge challenge. And whether that can all be done by market principles remains to be seen, but I don't think that is the major problem. There is a danger of overheating. There is a danger of a housing bubble in matching all the structures and even cities being built with demand that could get difficult.

????But the key problem will be how to relate these emerging economic structures to political structures that are being adapted. Internationally, China will undoubtedly attempt to translate its economic performance into political influence. In that sense, there will always be a kind of competition. But it does not have to take the form of a zero sum game.

????It seems inevitable that China will become the largest economy in the world soon. Is that something that should concern the United States?

????It's going to happen, but one has to see it in the right perspective. Per capita, it still will be about only a fifth of the United States because it has to be distributed over a much larger population. There exists a huge demographic problem. A shrinking percentage of the population has to take place to take care of a rapidly growing older generation after 2025 or 2030. Finally, we should act not because we want to outdo China, but because of what we think is essential for our society and for the peace of the world. But it is an unprecedented situation. For cooperation to work, both sides have to have the view that I described. It's not something America can do unilaterally. And -- but I think it is necessary for peace and progress ...