????和很多人一樣，一直以來(lái)，我眼看著團(tuán)購(gòu)網(wǎng)站Groupon公司疾如流星般的迅速崛起，也看到過(guò)去幾周來(lái)與之相伴的一些負(fù)面報(bào)道甚囂塵上。我并不了解該公司的任何內(nèi)幕，但我曾公開表示，對(duì)該公司創(chuàng)始人以及他們能如此迅速壯大起來(lái)的業(yè)務(wù)，我感到欽佩。

????必須明確指出，我認(rèn)為Groupon絕不僅僅是一個(gè)每日特價(jià)的郵寄清單。長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，這一業(yè)務(wù)具有估值超過(guò)200億美元的潛力并非不可思議——這是眾多小型商戶卓有成效的營(yíng)銷解決方案。該公司應(yīng)該能發(fā)展到這樣一個(gè)特定階段，屆時(shí)它能向小型商戶提供一些工具，使之能基于人口統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)資料、地理位置、過(guò)往購(gòu)買行為和其他確定目標(biāo)市場(chǎng)的選擇向客戶提供目標(biāo)非常精準(zhǔn)的團(tuán)購(gòu)產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)。這實(shí)質(zhì)上是在向小型商戶提供產(chǎn)出管理（yield management）及某種動(dòng)態(tài)定價(jià)系統(tǒng)（dynamic pricing）。對(duì)各商家和消費(fèi)者來(lái)說(shuō)，所有這些都是大買賣，是雙贏方案。

????分享這個(gè)商機(jī)的入場(chǎng)券就是消費(fèi)者的參與程度。Groupon與其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者已開始爭(zhēng)奪地盤，在盡可能多的領(lǐng)域里拼湊盡可能龐大的特價(jià)清單。從理論上說(shuō)，這個(gè)清單越大，鎖定目標(biāo)消費(fèi)者和進(jìn)行產(chǎn)出管理的機(jī)會(huì)就越大。

????但是，這個(gè)市場(chǎng)已出現(xiàn)了一些問(wèn)題。而我懷疑，目前的情況是，這一領(lǐng)域最優(yōu)秀的公司淪為犧牲品才換來(lái)了整個(gè)團(tuán)購(gòu)行業(yè)商業(yè)模式的成功。其結(jié)果是，Groupon，LivingSocial公司（美國(guó)第二大團(tuán)購(gòu)網(wǎng)站——譯注）及其他公司能融到數(shù)額驚人的資本。而大眾媒體（在團(tuán)購(gòu)聚合網(wǎng)站如Yipit所提供服務(wù)的協(xié)助下）能相當(dāng)精確地摸清各家競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者的規(guī)模及其相對(duì)增長(zhǎng)率。這使得要繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大特價(jià)清單和提高營(yíng)收變得壓力重重。而要想這么做，最好的辦法就是號(hào)召更多新商家加入，說(shuō)服它們提供大幅折扣，盡可能多賣優(yōu)惠券，維持運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。

????我對(duì)這個(gè)行業(yè)有個(gè)純屬空想的看法，即出現(xiàn)一家規(guī)模龐大、真正持久經(jīng)營(yíng)的公司。但情況與目前稍有不同。與當(dāng)前這個(gè)市場(chǎng)所享有的凈收入與收入總額之比在30%到40%的區(qū)間相比，這一比例將在15%的區(qū)間內(nèi)徘徊。這是一個(gè)比較合理，與其他類型的聯(lián)屬網(wǎng)絡(luò)營(yíng)銷（affiliate marketing）項(xiàng)目相一致的值。它也能讓小型商戶可以依靠規(guī)模營(yíng)銷賺錢，或是提高優(yōu)惠券的平均價(jià)值使之更具吸引力。我想，屆時(shí)會(huì)出現(xiàn)幅度更小的折扣和定位更精準(zhǔn)的團(tuán)購(gòu)項(xiàng)目。

????參與團(tuán)購(gòu)的商家也能享有更大的控制權(quán)，并獲得更多的指導(dǎo)，以便從其與這類公司的關(guān)系中獲得最大的回報(bào)。

????最后，消費(fèi)者也能有多種方式和所提供的服務(wù)互動(dòng)，而不是僅僅每天收到一封團(tuán)購(gòu)優(yōu)惠的電子郵件。屆時(shí)將會(huì)出現(xiàn)圍繞本地商家提供的優(yōu)質(zhì)內(nèi)容，絕佳的移動(dòng)體驗(yàn)，消費(fèi)者可以自主決定是否接受對(duì)其消費(fèi)行為的追蹤以便獲得更好的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)，等等。這樣一家公司可能沒(méi)有Groupon或LivingSocial那么強(qiáng)勁的增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭，但卻能建立更穩(wěn)固的基礎(chǔ)，成為一家持續(xù)發(fā)展的公司。

????不幸的是，當(dāng)前有太多公司在做上述服務(wù)中的某一塊了。但如果沒(méi)有Groupon和LivingSocial那樣龐大的消費(fèi)群規(guī)模，任何一家這類公司都難以將其落到實(shí)處。更糟糕的是，當(dāng)前小型商戶和消費(fèi)者都對(duì)特價(jià)服務(wù)厭倦至極，要贏得消費(fèi)者注意變得更加困難了。

????我想，有朝一日，不再有這么多錢愚蠢地流入已經(jīng)處于發(fā)展末期的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司，這一領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)頭羊才會(huì)會(huì)更謹(jǐn)慎地拓展業(yè)務(wù)，并打造出能長(zhǎng)期受到商戶和消費(fèi)者喜愛的服務(wù)?？上В@并非當(dāng)今世界的現(xiàn)狀。也許當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)某個(gè)巨頭會(huì)成為我上面描述的那種公司，持久經(jīng)營(yíng)下去。又或者它們只是一個(gè)雛形，是行業(yè)新星即將到來(lái)的一種預(yù)兆，正如當(dāng)年的Lycos（最早提供信息搜索服務(wù)的網(wǎng)站之一——譯注）和Alta Vista（一度最為流行的搜索引擎）之于后來(lái)的谷歌公司（Google）。時(shí)間將會(huì)告訴我們一切——畢竟谷歌已經(jīng)成為了現(xiàn)實(shí)。

????Rob Go是NextView風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資公司的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人。這是一家種子期投資公司，專注于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)創(chuàng)新應(yīng)用。他此前曾在Spark Capital投資公司工作，其博客地址是www.robgo.org。

????譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

????Like many people, I've been watching the meteoric rise of Groupon as well as some of the negative press we've been seeing the last several weeks. I am not privy to any private information about the company, but I've said publicly that I admire the founders and the kind of business they have been able to build so quickly.

????For the record, I think that Groupon is much more than a deal-of-the-day mailing list. The long-term $20 billion+ potential for this business is not really a mystery -- it's as a performance marketing solution for small businesses. The company should get to the point where they can give small businesses the tools to make very targeted offers to consumers based on demographics, location, past purchase behavior, and other targeting options. You essentially offer the small business yield management and somewhat dynamic pricing. All of these are big deals and are win-win for businesses and consumers.

????The price of admission into this opportunity is consumers engagement. Groupon and its competitors embarked on a land grab, amassing as large a list as possible in as many regions as possible. In theory, the larger the list, the better the opportunity for targeting and yield management.

????But, something has gone wrong in this market. And I suspect this is a case where the best companies in this space are victims of the model's success. As a result, Groupon, LivingSocial and others have been able to raise monstrous amounts of capital. The general press (enabled by services like Yipit) is able to track with pretty good accuracy what the scale is of the various competitors and their relative growth rates. This puts massive pressure to continue to grow lists and grow revenue. And the best way to do that is to call on brand new businesses, convince them to offer massive discounts, sell as many coupons as possible, and move on.

????My armchair observer's view of this business is that there is a massive and truly enduring company here. But it would look a little different. Net revenue / Gross Revenue would be in the 15% range, as opposed to the 30-40% range that is currently enjoyed by the market. This is a rational amount that is consistent with other affiliate marketing programs. It also allows the small business to potentially make money on the sale, or to increase the average value of the coupon to make it more enticing. I think you'd also see smaller discounts and much more targeted offers.

????Merchants would also have much more controls and receive more guidance to getting the most out of their relationship with these companies.

????Finally, consumers would have multiple ways to engage with the service vs. just a daily email. You'd see great content around local businesses, there would be an excellent mobile experience, you'd have the option to have your purchases tracked to provide better offers, etc. This company probably would have had slower top-line growth than Groupon or LivingSocial, but would have built a stronger foundation for an enduring company.

????The sad thing is that there are so many companies doing pieces of this. But it's going to be hard for anyone to really nail it without the massive consumer scale that Groupon and LivingSocial have. And, to make matters worse, both SMBs and consumers is now extremely fatigued with deal services, making it ever harder to win anyone's attention.

????I think in another time, when there wasn't so much money foolishly piling into late stage internet companies, the leaders in this space would have grown more carefully, and built a service that merchants and consumers would love for a long time. Sadly, that is not the state of the world today. Maybe one of the market leaders will become the company I have described above and will be enduring. Or maybe they will be the Lycos and Alta Vista heralding a future Google. Time will tell – but a Google does exist here.

????Rob Go is co-founder of NextView Ventures, a seed-stage investment firm focused on Internet-enabled innovation. He previously was with Spark Capital, and blogs over at www.robgo.org