????過去18個(gè)月來，以主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)面目登場的這場經(jīng)濟(jì)瘟疫肆無忌憚地蔓延，重挫歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)，現(xiàn)在病毒又出現(xiàn)了危險(xiǎn)的新突變，銀行業(yè)的全面危機(jī)就在眼前。市場實(shí)際上已經(jīng)認(rèn)定希臘將會出現(xiàn)違約，歐元區(qū)基礎(chǔ)薄弱的銀行也隨之陷入困境，因?yàn)樗麄兊耐顿Y者、交易伙伴和客戶紛紛撤回了短期融資。全球五大央行上周四聯(lián)手向歐洲銀行提供美元流動性，但這只是權(quán)宜之計(jì)。對歐元區(qū)規(guī)模最大的幾家金融機(jī)構(gòu)來說，雷曼兄弟式的突然崩潰或諾森羅克（Northern Rock）式的擠兌風(fēng)潮仍然可能重演。

????在本輪市場異動中首先遭到重創(chuàng)的是法國銀行，不過，意大利、西班牙、德國和英國銀行同樣面臨著嚴(yán)重的資金問題。歐元區(qū)成員國必須迅速采取行動，提振投資者對處境維艱的歐洲銀行業(yè)的信心。歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金（the European Financial Stability Facility）最近的拓展是個(gè)好的開始，但要想恢復(fù)投資者的信心，讓他們放心的把資金存放于歐洲銀行，該基金目前的規(guī)模還不夠。

????本周，巴黎和紐約股市的走勢首先給我們敲響了警鐘，法國興業(yè)銀行（Société Générale）、法國農(nóng)業(yè)信貸銀行（Credit Agricole）和法國巴黎銀行（BNP Paribas）——即法國三大銀行的股價(jià)出現(xiàn)了劇烈波動，表面上是因?yàn)樗麄兂钟写罅俊坝卸尽毕ＥD國債。周三，穆迪（Moody's）將法興銀行和農(nóng)業(yè)信貸銀行的債信評級各下調(diào)了一檔，法國巴黎銀行雖得以維持評級，但仍被列入負(fù)面觀察名單。

????可是，這些銀行股價(jià)的暴跌看起來不能僅用希臘國債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口和評級遭下調(diào)來解釋。以法興銀行為例，該行對希臘國債的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口總共也只有約50億歐元，其中還包括其希臘子公司所持有的國債。這個(gè)數(shù)字大概只相當(dāng)于法興銀行總資產(chǎn)的1%，與“魔鬼交易員”熱羅姆?凱維埃爾2009年使該行虧掉的錢差不多。

????截至周四，法興銀行過去三個(gè)月來市值累計(jì)已下跌56%，相當(dāng)于該行所持希臘國債總價(jià)值的3.5倍，如果將此種暴跌解釋為市場對其投資希臘國債的懲罰，那顯然有些過頭了。法興銀行的希臘子公司還參與了希臘私人信貸市場，這也帶來了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，該行股價(jià)下跌過度可能與這一因素不無干系。但總的來說，市場看起來是在發(fā)出信號，表明它對該行的擔(dān)憂遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不局限于希臘國債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，最值得擔(dān)憂的是：與其他法國同行一樣，法興銀行資本不足情況極為嚴(yán)重，因此可能隨時(shí)崩盤。

雷曼事件的回響

????The European economic contagion that began 18 months ago as a sovereign debt crisis is dangerously mutating into a full-blown banking crisis. With Greece in de-facto market default, weak banks within the eurozone have started to fall ill as their investors, trading partners and clients pull short-term funding. The move by central banks on Thursday to provide extended U.S. dollar loans to European banks is only a stopgap measure. A Lehman Brothers-like collapse or a Northern Rock-like bank run still cannot be ruled out at this point for several of the eurozone's largest financial institutions.

????The market has hammered French banks into the ground first, but banks in Italy, Spain, Germany and the United Kingdom face serious funding issues as well. Swift action is needed on the part of eurozone members to shore up confidence in its crippled banking sector. The expansion of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) is a good start, but more money will be needed to ensure investors that it's all clear to park their cash with European banks again.

????The alarm bells were sounded on trading floors in Paris and New York this week. Société Générale, Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas – the three major French banking institutions - have seen their share prices move violently in recent days, ostensibly because of their exposure to toxic Greek sovereign debt. On Wednesday Moody's downgraded the credit rating of Société Générale and Credit Agricole one notch and kept BNP Paribas on review for a downgrade.

????But the violent drops in their share prices seem to go beyond the banks' exposure to Greece and the credit downgrade. Take Société Générale for example. The bank's total exposure to Greek sovereign debt, including the amount held by its Greek subsidiary, is around 5 billion euros. That's equivalent to around 1% of the bank's balance sheet and around the same amount of money the bank lost at the hands of rogue trader Jér?me Kerviel in 2009.

????As punishment for its Greek sovereign investments, the market wiped out 56% off Société Générale's market value in the last three months up to Thursday. That's around 3.5 times the value of its exposure to Greek sovereign debt, which is clearly overkill. Some of the extra losses baked in to the market value haircut derive from the bank's exposure to the private Greek credit market through the bank's local subsidiary. But the market seems to be sending a signal that it is worried about much more than the bank's measly Greek exposure. The big fear is that Société Générale, along with its French banking brethren, is extremely undercapitalized and could therefore collapse at any moment.

Echoes of Lehman