全球競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力之爭(zhēng):貨幣戰(zhàn)不是出路
????全球經(jīng)濟(jì)可能重新陷入衰退,各國(guó)市場(chǎng)持續(xù)劇烈波動(dòng),各國(guó)央行在貨幣政策制定方面必須艱難地找準(zhǔn)平衡。多國(guó)央行都對(duì)本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)注入了龐大的刺激資金,使主權(quán)債務(wù)余額大幅增加,可能需要幾十年時(shí)間才能消化;有些央行則暗示會(huì)削減刺激計(jì)劃并提高利率,使人們更加擔(dān)憂突如其來(lái)的通脹可能影響經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。 ????盡管這些央行的行為不盡完美,總的來(lái)說(shuō)它們確實(shí)有助于緩解經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的嚴(yán)重性。不過(guò),最近有一些央行采取的政策不是為了緩解本國(guó)貨幣匯率的波動(dòng),而是為了操縱匯率,在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上贏得優(yōu)勢(shì)。盡管這種“貨幣戰(zhàn)”與真正的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)還差得很遠(yuǎn),它們對(duì)自由市場(chǎng)全球貿(mào)易同樣有著明顯的負(fù)面作用。 ????許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都將中國(guó)稱為造成貨幣不平衡的關(guān)鍵影響因子,中國(guó)嚴(yán)重依賴出口來(lái)保持經(jīng)濟(jì)的迅速增長(zhǎng)。這些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為,中國(guó)長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)的政策是:向本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)注入大量資金,同時(shí)買入其他國(guó)家的國(guó)債。這樣做的效果是使人民幣相對(duì)于其他貨幣的匯率低估,從而降低出口到海外的中國(guó)貨物的相對(duì)價(jià)格;而其他希望向中國(guó)銷售本國(guó)產(chǎn)品的國(guó)家則會(huì)面臨相對(duì)較高的出口價(jià)格。 ????頗具諷刺意味的是,中國(guó)的貨幣政策在控制國(guó)內(nèi)通脹方面并不成功,該國(guó)的工資水平和消費(fèi)物價(jià)都在穩(wěn)步攀升。根據(jù)國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)最近公布的數(shù)據(jù),2010年中國(guó)消費(fèi)物價(jià)上漲了5%;相比之下,美國(guó)和歐元區(qū)只上漲了1.6%。隨著中國(guó)逐步出現(xiàn)劉易斯拐點(diǎn)(Lewisian Turning Point)式的現(xiàn)象,平均工資和熟練工人平均工資預(yù)期的增長(zhǎng)將更為迅猛。這種理論由阿瑟?劉易斯提出,指勞動(dòng)力需求增長(zhǎng)速度超過(guò)供給增長(zhǎng)的速度。 ????至于西方國(guó)家是否應(yīng)該使本國(guó)貨幣貶值,以反制中國(guó)的貨幣政策,經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家之間存在許多爭(zhēng)議。盡管這一舉措可能會(huì)暫時(shí)降低西方國(guó)家出口貨物的相對(duì)價(jià)格,但它導(dǎo)致的債務(wù)將會(huì)使這些國(guó)家的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表更加脆弱,只從短期著眼的思維方式將給今后的幾代人留下嚴(yán)重后果。 |
????As global markets continue to see-saw on the verge of another recession, central banks across the world face a difficult balancing act of monetary policy. Massive injections of stimulus funds have been deployed in many cases, creating outstanding balances of sovereign debt that may take decades to resolve. Other banks are hinting at reduced stimulus funding and higher interest rates, fueling fears that sudden inflation could damage the economic recovery. ????Although imperfect, these central bank actions have been helpful in moderating the severity of economic cycles over time. However, more recently, some bankers have adopted policies intended not to moderate but rather to manipulate domestic currency exchange rates and gain advantage on the global playing field. This "currency war," although far different from its military namesake, has equally significant implications for free-market global trade. ????Many economists cite China, which relies heavily on exports to fuel its fast-growing economy, as a key influencer in the currency imbalance. According to these economists, the nation has long followed a policy of injecting large sums of money into its economy and buying debt from other nations. This has the effect of undervaluing the Chinese yuan compared to other currencies, and lowering the relative cost of Chinese goods shipped abroad. Other nations, which seek to sell their own goods to China, face higher relative export prices as a result. ????Ironically, China's monetary policies have not been successful in controlling domestic inflation, as both wages and consumer prices are rising steadily. According to recent IMF data, consumer prices in China increased 5% in 2010 compared to about 1.6% in the U.S. and euro zone. Chinese wages and skilled worker wage expectations are growing even more rapidly, as the country approaches a Lewisian Turning Point-type phenomenon – the economic theory named after Arthur Lewis where demand for labor begins to outpace the available supply. ????There is much debate among economists as to whether Western nations should counter China's monetary policy by deflating their own currencies. Although this might temporarily reduce the cost of goods exported from the West, the resulting debt would further weaken their balance sheets and pass the consequences of short-term thinking to future generations. |