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拯救經(jīng)濟:克林頓為奧巴馬支招

拯救經(jīng)濟:克林頓為奧巴馬支招

Andy Serwer 2011-10-10
前任總統(tǒng)給疾病纏身的美國經(jīng)濟開出了怎樣的藥方呢?——大力抓好就業(yè)和抵押貸款減免工作,同時整頓稅收體制。

????比爾?克林頓總統(tǒng)任期內(nèi)的美國經(jīng)濟是美國歷史上最強勢的經(jīng)濟之一。盡管他的部分成就源于機緣和運氣,但是他的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)才干和能力無疑也發(fā)揮了很突出的作用,因此一些人至今仍對于克林頓經(jīng)濟學(xué)念念不忘。【克林頓的關(guān)于經(jīng)濟的新書《回歸工作》(Back to Work)將于11月8日面世】《財富》雜志(Fortune)主編賽安迪采訪了這位正在紐約參加“克林頓全球行動”(Clinton Global Initiative)年會的第42屆美國總統(tǒng),并討論了時下的經(jīng)濟形勢。節(jié)選如下:

????如何才能挽救經(jīng)濟頹勢,創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機會?

????首先,國會和奧巴馬總統(tǒng)可以實施相關(guān)措施來盤活一大筆資金,這筆資金目前作為存量,并沒有用于投資。美國銀行系統(tǒng)目前有2.2萬億美元未用于放貸的現(xiàn)金。除開其中幾千億美元的現(xiàn)金應(yīng)作為預(yù)留來應(yīng)付不良貸款,但還有近2萬億美元可以作為現(xiàn)金儲備募集20萬億美元左右的貸款。因此,理論上,這筆資金可以讓世界經(jīng)濟走出衰退陰影。另外,美國各大公司決定不用于投資的資金大約有2萬多億美元。

????第二件要做的事就是要加快解決房貸危機。這樣,企業(yè)將更愿意參與借貸和拓展業(yè)務(wù),消費者也更愿意花錢消費。解決這種類型的金融危機一般需要5年左右的時間。我們真正要做的就是打破歷史常規(guī),縮短解決周期。要做到這一點,我們必須重拾當(dāng)初應(yīng)對儲蓄貸款危機(S&L crisis)時所采取的措施,并加大行動力度,才能盡快擺脫債務(wù)。

????第三件要做的事將有利于加強我們當(dāng)下和今后的戰(zhàn)略地位。我們需要重拾制造業(yè),抓好出口,發(fā)展綠色技術(shù)。只要我們肯做,創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機會的門路有很多。

????按揭減免

????在房主能夠償付的前提下,如果我們的體制能允許房產(chǎn)價值低于房貸總額的房主們根據(jù)房產(chǎn)價值來調(diào)低房貸總額,這對經(jīng)濟的促進(jìn)作用是不言而喻的。或者我們也可以延長按揭期限,同時降低利率。我認(rèn)為我們能繼續(xù)將房產(chǎn)交由已然極度低迷的市場來消化。這種做法會有人投贊成票嗎?我不是很清楚。當(dāng)初茶黨形成的時候,他們似乎對于拯救大型銀行持反對意見,聲稱這些銀行是自作自受,沒有必要保護(hù)。這話千真萬確,但卻沒有關(guān)聯(lián)性。一旦經(jīng)濟崩盤,所有人都得付出代價?,F(xiàn)在很多人認(rèn)為不能更改房貸,原因是那些人一開始就不應(yīng)該貸款。這種想法存在很大的問題。市場現(xiàn)在很不景氣,大家的日子都不不會好過。

????稅收改革

????目前唯一能做的事就是效仿我們在80年代對個稅所做的改革。我們需要縮減課稅減免和信貸,降低利率,以此擴大稅基。我認(rèn)為國會在一年之內(nèi)就會推出相關(guān)政策。我還希望從現(xiàn)在開始海外資金能夠被自由回流,無需承擔(dān)稅費負(fù)擔(dān)。世界強國當(dāng)中,只有美國還在對本土企業(yè)在海外的經(jīng)營所得征稅。我認(rèn)為,如果這些企業(yè)將這些錢投入生產(chǎn),應(yīng)該允許他們無償?shù)貙①Y金帶回本土。如果他們將錢花在補償、股票回購或分紅上面,則可以要求他們支付長期資本收益稅金。

????“巴菲特準(zhǔn)則”(對富人征收重稅)

????如果我們確實需要增加財政收入,公平的做法就是拿我們這樣的高收入群體開刀,他們在過去10年中是經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的主要受益者。美國的收入增長有40%落入了1%最有錢人的口袋。這個數(shù)據(jù)著實驚人。過去10年中小布什總統(tǒng)所推行的大規(guī)模稅收削減使我們一部分人群受益匪淺。問題是,不管我們繳多少稅,政府收支也難以得到平衡。我并不介意多交些稅。但是與恢復(fù)眼下經(jīng)濟增長的有力措施和10年計劃相比,應(yīng)該征多高的稅這個問題就顯得微不足道了。

????President Bill Clinton presided over one of the most robust economies in American history. And while some of his success may have been a result of timing and some luck, his leadership his ability to create a consensus, in particular surely had a role and has some people waxing nostalgic over Clintonomics. (Clinton has a new book on the economy, Back to Work, coming out Nov. 8.) Fortune managing editor Andy Serwer met to discuss current economic events with the 42nd President, who was in the midst of his annual Clinton Global Initiative extravaganza in New York City. Edited excerpts:

????How to fix the economy and create jobs

????First, Congress and President Obama can adopt strategies designed to unleash the massive amount of capital that is accumulated but not being invested. There's some $2.2 trillion in cash in American banks that is not committed to loans. A couple hundred billion has to be held back for bad mortgages, but there's about $2 trillion that could be used in cash reserves for up to $20 trillion in loans. So, in theory, that would take the world out of recession. And U.S. corporations have about $2 trillion more that they have decided not to invest.

????The second thing is to accelerate the resolution of the home mortgage crisis, which would make businesses more eager to borrow, expand and consumers more willing to spend. These kinds of financial crises typically take about five years to get over. What we're really trying to do is beat the historical trend by getting over it more quickly. We can't do that unless we do on a larger scale what we did in the S&L crisis, which is to flush the debt quicker.

????The third category includes things that will strengthen our position today and tomorrow. We need to bring back manufacturing. We need to focus on exports. We need to focus on green technologies. There are dozens of things we could do that would create jobs.

????Mortgage relief

????I cannot emphasize the boost I think it would give the economy if we had a system that said to people whose homes are worth less than the mortgages that you can write down your mortgages to the value of your home if you can make the payment. Or you can extend the mortgage out and lower the interest rate. I don't think we ought to keep dumping these houses on the market when it's so depressed. Can we get the votes to do it? I don't know. When the Tea Party started, they seemed to object to the bailout of the big banks, claiming they were being protected from their own mistakes. That was true, but irrelevant. If a financial collapse had happened, we would have all paid. Now a lot of people argue that you shouldn't rewrite these mortgages because people never should have taken them out in the first place. There's a big problem with that thinking. The market is so depressed that it's hurting everyone else.

????Tax reform

????The only fair thing to do is a version of what we did with individual tax reform back in the '80s. We need to broaden the tax base by cutting down on deductions and credits and lower rates. I think Congress will do that within a year. I would also like to see money repatriated now for free, with no taxes. We're the only rich country in the world that still imposes taxes on corporations on money they earn overseas. I think they ought to bring it back for nothing if they put people to work with it. And if they want to spend it on compensation or stock buybacks or dividends, let them pay the long-term capital gains rate.

????"The Buffett Rule" (The rich pay more)

????If we had to raise revenues, it's fair to ask those of us in high-income groups, who got the primary benefit of growth over the last decade. More than 40% of the income growth went to the top 1% of us. That's a stunning statistic. The lion's share of the tax cuts in the last decade, under President Bush's tax cuts, benefited us. The problem is, no matter how much tax we pay, it won't get the budget in balance. I don't mind paying more. But how much is not nearly as important as our having both an aggressive effort to restore growth today and a 10-year plan.

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