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存亡關(guān)頭,零售巨頭西爾斯孤注一擲

存亡關(guān)頭,零售巨頭西爾斯孤注一擲

Kit R. Roane 2011-10-20
艾迪?蘭伯特打造的這家零售集團在舉步維艱之際已找到權(quán)宜之計,但這可能只是飲鴆止渴,有一個重大問題仍未得到解答:西爾斯的終局將如何?

????斯托維爾在研究過蘭伯特管理之下的西爾斯架構(gòu)后指出,“我認為蘭伯特在試圖最有效地利用其資產(chǎn),這是公司經(jīng)營者應(yīng)盡的本分?!?斯托維爾還說,蘭伯特這位對沖基金權(quán)威創(chuàng)造的股東價值超過了大多數(shù)人愿意承認的水平?!叭绻茉跔I收下滑之際維持現(xiàn)金流,這是一個相當好的結(jié)果。我認為如果沒有蘭伯特,就不會有他創(chuàng)造的大量股東價值?!?/p>

????2005年,蘭伯特重組凱馬特零售超市(Kmart)時的原始投資者們收獲頗豐,當然,前提是他們后來沒有像蘭伯特那樣持續(xù)買入公司的股票。那一年,蘭伯特將凱馬特與西爾斯, Roebuck and Co.公司合并,隨后創(chuàng)造性地推出了一系列商業(yè)計劃,并對公司管理層進行了重組。

????為改善財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù),西爾斯多方嘗試,包括關(guān)閉經(jīng)營不善的門店、為網(wǎng)站注入活力,并將分布在眾多門店的133,000平方英尺零星店面租給其他零售商,諸如青少年品牌Forever 21、艾德溫沃茲高爾夫商店(Edwin Watts Golf Shops)和制服零售商Work 'N Gear以及雜貨店和連鎖健身俱樂部等等。

????然而,西爾斯去年的營收仍然降至433億美元,低于2008年的507億美元。8月份,該公司公布凱馬特第二季度同店銷售額持平,而西爾斯美國門店下降1.2%。歸屬于股東的當季凈虧損為攤薄后每股1.37美元,高于2010年的0.35美元。2010年營運現(xiàn)金流剛剛為正值,2011年截至7月30日的26周為-4.67億美元。市場普遍預(yù)計西爾斯控股11月中旬將公布每股虧損2.29美元。

????6月份,惠譽(Fitch)將西爾斯控股債務(wù)評級從“B+”調(diào)低至 “B”,理由是其盈利持續(xù)惡化,特別是“2011年第一季度陡然下滑”。惠譽列出的問題是西爾斯和凱馬特美國門店的增收增幅繼續(xù)落后于其他零售商,營業(yè)利潤率也滯后。這家評級機構(gòu)稱,最令人擔(dān)憂的是“盈利能力降幅之大以及看不到扭轉(zhuǎn)頹勢的前景。”

????賓夕法尼亞大學(xué)(University of Pennsylvania)沃頓商學(xué)院(Wharton School)的營銷學(xué)教授斯蒂夫?霍克指出,西爾斯近日的銷售許可戰(zhàn)略將增加一些低利潤率銷售額,有助于改善收入狀況。同時,“與其他零售商的合作”可能還會對門店認可度有些幫助,但他認為許可協(xié)議最終給西爾斯帶來的益處相當有限。

????大衛(wèi)德維茨認為,不要揣測西爾斯最近的舉措背后有什么宏大的計劃?!拔鳡査箓鬟_的信息是:,過去我們一塌糊涂,但現(xiàn)在我們已經(jīng)有了一位新總裁。我們需要籌集資金,贏得時間來探索電子商務(wù)市場。為了讓人們不再質(zhì)疑我們是否還有存在的價值,我們只能這么做,”他認為?!耙磺兄皇菫榱松??!?/p>

????"I do think Lampert is trying to utilize his assets in the most efficient way, which is what people who run companies are supposed to do," says Stowell, who has studied Sears structure under Lampert. He adds that the hedge fund guru has done better for shareholders than many will admit. "If you can maintain cash flow in the context of declining revenues, that is a pretty good outcome. I give him credit for generating a lot more shareholder value than would have been created in the absence of the Lampert ownership period."

????Original investors in Lampert's reorganized Kmart have done well enough, at least if they didn't keep buying stock (as Lampert has), through the merger with Sears, Roebuck and Co. in 2005 and the other various inspired initiatives and management shakeups that followed.

????In an attempt to boost its financials, Sears has been attempting to shed unproductive stores, enliven its internet presence and lease out bits of the 133,000 square feet that encompass its average location to other retailers, such as Forever 21, Edwin Watts Golf Shops and Work 'N Gear, as well as grocery and health club chains.

????But revenues were down to $43.3 billion last year, from $50.7 in 2008. In August, the company reported that Kmart's comparable store sales were flat in the second quarter, while Sears stores in the U.S. saw a decline of 1.2%. Net loss for shareholders for the quarter equaled $1.37 per diluted share, compared with a 35-cent per diluted share loss in 2010. Cash flow from operations was barely positive for 2010 and was negative $467 million for the 26 weeks ending July, 30, 2011. The consensus estimate is for Sears Holdings to show a loss of $2.29 per share when it reports in mid-November.

????In June, Fitch downgraded Sears Holdings debt to "B" from "B+," due to the continuing deterioration of earnings, particularly the "precipitous decline during the first quarter of 2011." The problem illuminated by Fitch is that domestic Sears and Kmart stores have continued to underperform other retailers on top line growth and operating margins have also lagged. The rating agency says its greatest concern is "the magnitude of decline in profitability and the lack of visibility to turn around operations."

????Professor Steve Hoch, who teaches marketing at University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, notes that Sears' latest licensing move will help bolster its income by pulling in some additional, albeit lower-margin sales. It will also possibly help a little with store recognition due to the "implicit endorsement by the other retailers," but he sees Sears' ultimate benefit from the licensing deals as being rather small.

????There's no sense in trying to divine a grand plan from the move, according to Davidowitz . "Sears is saying we got all this crap, we've got a new president and we need to buy some time to come up with something online, and this will be something we can do so people won't question if we should even be in business," he opines. "It's about survival."

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