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思科轉型曙光初現

思科轉型曙光初現

Kevin Kelleher 2011-11-17
思科公司一直在艱難地尋找自己的第二春。現在,由于主要競爭對手正自顧不暇,思科第一次依稀看到了成功轉型的希望。

????很少有公司像思科公司(Cisco)這樣,在互聯網的發(fā)展中居于如此中心的地位。互聯網服務提供商、私營公司和公共機構須臾也離不開它的交換機和路由器。這家位于圣何塞的公司儼然已成為網絡基礎設施的代名詞。

????但近幾年來,思科公司一直在努力尋找自身發(fā)展的第二春。在網絡泡沫的高峰期,思科公司一度成為世界上最有價值的公司,市值高達5,000億美元。然而,在過去10年的大多數時間里,它的股票搖擺在每股15美元到30美元這一區(qū)間內。近些年來,思科的發(fā)展變得尤為緩慢:過去3年來,其季度收入僅增長了8%,而凈利潤則下降了44%。令投資者更憂心的是,隨著競爭對手在思科賴以成為巨人的核心市場上與其展開正面交鋒,這家公司的毛利率一年不如一年。

????思科在發(fā)布截至10月29日的財季報告時聲稱,該公司的毛利率為62.4%。消息傳來,分析人士和投資者深感震動。畢竟,這個比率低于上一年的數值(64.3%),甚至不如此前一個季度的水平(62.7%)。但在接下來的兩天中,思科的股票不僅沒有下挫,反而猛漲8%,創(chuàng)下9個月以來的最高水平。

????這是因為,大多數投資者此前預期的毛利率比這還低——接近61%。如惠普公司(Hewlett-Packard)和瞻博網絡(Juniper Networks)這樣的競爭對手一直在交換機和低端路由器市場上發(fā)動價格戰(zhàn),試圖推動銷量,以對抗全球經濟衰退帶來的影響。這種競爭不斷蠶食著思科公司的毛利率水平——幾年前,這項比率為70%左右,2010年幾乎下降到了65%。

????思科公司CEO約翰?錢伯斯曾發(fā)誓要遏制這一下滑趨勢,并將公司的經營重點從增加收入轉為提高毛利率水平。提升毛利率是錢伯斯為提高思科利潤而設計的一個為期3年的重組計劃的基石。這項計劃似乎終于開始奏效了——至少現在看來是這樣。

????還有其他一些令人鼓舞的信號。來自交換機的收入(約占總收入的三分之一)雖然無增無減,但訂單增加了10%。就公司總體而言,在這個季節(jié)性疲軟的季度中,訂單增加了13%(其中,來自資金緊張的公共部門的訂單增加了10%),一舉扭轉了跌勢—— 此前一個季度的訂單下降了4%。甚至連歐洲和中東的訂單也增長了13%。

????Few companies have been as central to the Internet's development as Cisco. ISPs, private companies and public institutions have relied on its switches and routers so much that the San Jose company's name might as well be synonymous with the Net's infrastructure.

????But for several years, Cisco (CSCO) has been struggling to find a suitable second act. At the dot-com peak, Cisco was briefly the most valuable company in the world, with a market cap of $500 billion. For most of the past 10 years, it's stock has vacillated in a range of $15 and $30 a share. And in recent years, things have slowed even more: Its quarterly revenue has risen only 8% over the past three years, while net profit declined 44%. More worrisome to investors, its gross margins deteriorated year after year as competitors battled Cisco in the core markets that made it a giant.

????So when Cisco, in reporting its earnings for the quarter ended October 29, said that gross margins came in at 62.4%, it caused a stir among analysts and investors. After all, that ratio is below the 64.3% of a year ago and even the 62.7% of the previous quarter. But instead of falling, Cisco's stock rallied 8% over the next two days, reaching its highest level in nine months.

????That's because most investors were bracing for even weaker margins -- something closer to 61%. Competitors like Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Juniper Networks (JNPR) have been waging a price war in switches and low-end routers, trying to boost volume in the face of a weak global economy. That has put a steady weight on Cisco's gross margins, which were closer to 65% in 2010 and around 70% several years ago.

????CEO John Chambers had vowed to stem the decline and shift the company's focus from revenue growth to higher gross margins. It was a cornerstone of a three-year restructuring he had engineered to shore up Cisco's profits. And it looks like the restructuring is finally working -- at least for now.

????There were other mildly encouraging signs. Revenue from switches, a third of the total, was flat, but orders increased by 10%. Overall, orders increased 13% in a seasonally weak quarter -- including a 10% increase in orders from the cash-strapped public sector, reversing a 4% decline in the previous quarter. Even orders from the Europe and Middle East rose 13%.

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