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當供應鏈斷裂時

當供應鏈斷裂時

Bill Powell 2011-12-14
制造商花費多年打造全球化低成本供應鏈,而自然災害讓他們知道了這樣的網絡有多么脆弱!

????這幅景象幾乎是超現實主義的:位于泰國中部的一家本田汽車(Honda)制造廠,也是東南亞最大的汽車制造廠之一,淹沒在15英尺的水下,一輛輛锃亮的新車在水流上漂浮著。11月份,一場毀滅性的洪水襲擊泰國,造成600多人死亡,也摧毀了本田公司一些主要供貨商,其中包括電子元件制造商羅門哈斯公司(Rohm & Co.),導致許多工廠生產延誤,連遙遠的俄亥俄州也受到波及。

????僅僅一場泰國洪災就足以考驗任何一家公司的運營能力;現在我們不妨再來看看3月份發(fā)生在日本的地震和海嘯。這場災難撕裂了日本中北部、導致數十家承包商和分包商被迫關停。這些商家供應的貨物包羅萬象,從玻璃到測試部件,無所不包。直到今天,汽車業(yè)的相當一部分和大量技術公司仍然沒有從這場災難中完全恢復過來。

????亞洲的雙重悲劇已經將那些通常默默無聞、但極其重要的利基公司置于聚光燈之下。每臺MacBook筆記本,每輛普銳斯轎車(Prius)都包含由這些公司提供的產品和部件。精益供應鏈由豐田汽車公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)首創(chuàng),在全球化時代日臻完善。它完全實現了生產制造的去中心化:大型制造商打造出一個由專業(yè)廠商構成的跨國網絡,為其提供零部件,并確保這些零部件在被需要的那一刻抵達裝配廠。一切按計劃進行時,這一體系將惠及供應鏈上的每一位參與者:裝配廠變得更富效率(再也不必管理惹人生厭的庫存);供應商將工廠設在廉價勞動力充沛的地區(qū),由此壓低了部件的成本;消費者則可以享用到價格更低廉的產品。

????但諸如地震和海嘯這樣的自然災害揭示出,這個精心打造的生態(tài)體系其實有多么脆弱。正如著名的供應鏈咨詢師鮑勃?法拉利所言:“沒有哪個人愿意聽到跨國公司供應鏈運營商傳來的消息。果真如此的話,那往往就意味著一定發(fā)生了非常糟糕的事情?!?/p>

????保險商和公司依然在計算著災難帶來的直接損失。據大型保險商慕尼黑再保險公司(Munich Re)估算,僅2011年頭9個月,日本的地震和海嘯造成的經濟損失就高達2,100億美元;泰國的保險業(yè)監(jiān)理專員估計,迄今為止,泰國的洪災已造成大約300億美元的損失。

????由于供應鏈環(huán)環(huán)相扣,這些災難對經濟的影響將遠遠超出亞洲范疇,而且還會延續(xù)數月之久。在泰國設有兩家工廠的計算機硬盤驅動器制造商希捷科技公司(Seagate)預計,洪災對其客戶(希捷公司為個人電腦和服務器制造商供應硬盤驅動器)的影響將延續(xù)至2012年年末。該公司CEO史蒂夫?盧卡佐表示,2013年之前,這一行業(yè)不會“恢復正?!薄J袌鲅芯繖C構iSuppli公司指出,計算機產業(yè)需要1.75億個硬盤驅動器,但供應商只能供應1.25億個,也就是說,供需缺口高達29%。一些公司已經通知投資者,這場洪災預計將對其未來收益產生不利影響,其中就包括蘋果(Apple)和惠普(Hewlett-Packard)公司,英特爾公司(Intel)最近也發(fā)表了類似的聲明。

???The image to the right is almost surreal: It shows part of a Honda auto factory in central Thailand, one of the largest in Southeast Asia, swamped under 15 feet of water, brand-new cars floating in the currents. The devastating November flooding in Thailand, which killed more than 600 people, also knocked out some of Honda's key suppliers, including electronics component maker Rohm & Co., forcing production delays in plants as far away as Ohio.

????The Thailand floods alone would test any company's operational prowess; now consider that much of the auto industry and many technology companies are still recovering from the earthquake and tsunami that tore through north-central Japan in March, shutting down dozens of contractors and subcontractors that supply everything from glass to test parts.

????The twin tragedies in Asia have shone a spotlight on the often anonymous but incredibly important niche companies whose products and parts go into every MacBook or Prius. Invented by Toyota Motor Corp., (TM) and perfected in the era of globalization, the lean supply chain completely decentralized manufacturing: Big manufacturers developed a multinational network of specialists to supply them with parts and to make sure those components arrived at assembly plants at the moment they were needed. When things go as planned, the system benefits everyone in the chain: The assembly plant is more efficient (no pesky inventories to manage), suppliers keep the cost of parts down by locating in regions with cheap labor, and consumers enjoy lower prices.

????But natural disasters such as the earthquake and tsunami reveal just how fragile this carefully crafted ecosystem can be. As Bob Ferrari, a leading supply-chain consultant, puts it: "You never want to hear about the guys who run the supply chains for multinational companies. When you do, usually it means something really bad has happened."

????Insurers and companies are still calculating the direct costs of the devastation. Munich Re, the big insurer, pegs the economic cost of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan at $210 billion for the first nine months of 2011 alone. Thailand's insurance commissioner estimates some $30 billion in losses from flooding in his country to date.

????Because of the interconnected nature of supply chains, the economic impact of these disasters will be felt well beyond Asia -- and for many months to come. Computer hard-drive maker Seagate (STX), which operates two factories in Thailand, predicts disruptions to its customers (Seagate supplies hard drives to makers of PCs and servers) through 2012, and CEO Stephen J. Luczo says the industry won't "be back to normal" until 2013. iSuppli, a market research firm, says the computer industry is in need of 175 million hard drives but suppliers can deliver only 125 million units -- a shortfall of 29%. Apple (AAPL), Hewlett-Packard, (HPQ) and most recently Intel (INTC) are among the companies that have told investors that the flooding will have an impact on future earnings.

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