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當(dāng)供應(yīng)鏈斷裂時(shí)

當(dāng)供應(yīng)鏈斷裂時(shí)

Bill Powell 2011-12-14
制造商花費(fèi)多年打造全球化低成本供應(yīng)鏈,而自然災(zāi)害讓他們知道了這樣的網(wǎng)絡(luò)有多么脆弱!

????美國現(xiàn)在依然能感受到大自然暴怒帶來的影響。俄亥俄州的汽車裝配工人11月份發(fā)現(xiàn),他們工作的時(shí)間縮短了,原因是本田公司無法收到來自泰國的零部件(11月下旬,本田公司設(shè)法讓這些制造廠重新回到正常的生產(chǎn)水平)。另一方面,在日本發(fā)生地震之后,田納西州戴克德市一家通常只為在美國本土銷售的日產(chǎn)轎車(Nissan)制造發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)的工廠,突然不得不提高產(chǎn)量;因?yàn)槿债a(chǎn)公司需要將這家美國工廠生產(chǎn)的發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)發(fā)往亞洲,滿足日本和東南亞市場的需求。

????理所當(dāng)然,2011年的事件已經(jīng)迫使眾多制造商開始重新審視其全球基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施存在的問題。“近期這些‘黑天鵝事件’,即前所未有的自然災(zāi)害,已明顯暴露出產(chǎn)業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈的種種漏洞,”供應(yīng)鏈專家法拉利說?!艾F(xiàn)在的問題是,我們是否過于追求成本最低化生產(chǎn)和超精益供應(yīng)鏈,由此導(dǎo)致了嚴(yán)重的商業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?”

????這是一個(gè)令CEO特別傷腦筋的重大問題:盈利掛帥的高管們是否做好了準(zhǔn)備,撤出低成本供應(yīng)商和“實(shí)時(shí)”生產(chǎn)體系,轉(zhuǎn)而接受一種更傳統(tǒng)的模式——工廠貯存零部件以備不時(shí)之需,或者干脆投資建立備用設(shè)施?

????一些公司響亮地作出了肯定的回答。希捷科技公司CEO盧卡佐稱,一些高端公司已經(jīng)開始要求跟他的公司簽署期限更長的供應(yīng)合同。

????分析人士指出,日產(chǎn)公司之所以比日本其他汽車制造商更迅速地恢復(fù)元?dú)?,是因?yàn)樵摴灸軌蛱岣咂渌S(包括戴克德市的發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)工廠)的產(chǎn)量。糟糕的是,日產(chǎn)同時(shí)也提高了泰國一家工廠的產(chǎn)量,而洪災(zāi)已經(jīng)讓這家工廠放緩了生產(chǎn)。2011年初,總部位于羅德島州莊士敦市的法特瑞互助保險(xiǎn)公司(FM Global)對600位首席財(cái)務(wù)官進(jìn)行了一次調(diào)查問卷,了解他們最擔(dān)心什么事情會(huì)破壞公司的收入來源。他們提到的最多的答案就是,供應(yīng)鏈瓦解。請注意,這項(xiàng)調(diào)查是在日本地震之前進(jìn)行的。

????日產(chǎn)公司CEO卡洛斯?戈恩的看法更具哲學(xué)意味?!凹磳l(fā)生另一場危機(jī),”11月下旬他在紐約市發(fā)表的一次演講中說道?!拔覀儾恢肋@會(huì)是一場什么樣的危機(jī),也不知道它將在何時(shí)何地襲擊我們。但每爆發(fā)一次危機(jī),我們都會(huì)從中獲得某種教益?!比绻圆惶?,危機(jī)模式已經(jīng)成為新的常態(tài),那么真正的成本優(yōu)勢或許并不屬于供應(yīng)鏈最靈活的制造商,而屬于供應(yīng)鏈最穩(wěn)固的公司。

????譯者:任文科

????The effects of Mother Nature's wrath still are being felt in the U.S. Auto assembly workers in Ohio saw their hours cut in November because Honda (HMC) couldn't get parts from Thailand. (In late November, Honda returned those plants to normal production levels.) On the other hand, a factory in Decherd, Tenn., that normally makes engines for Nissan cars sold only in the U.S. suddenly had to ramp up production after the Japan earthquake; Nissan had the American plant ship engines to Asia for use in cars sold both in Japan and in Southeast Asia.

????Not surprisingly, the events of 2011 have forced many manufacturers to rethink their global infrastructures. "These recent 'Black Swan' or unprecedented natural disaster events have obviously exposed vulnerabilities among industry supply chains," says Ferrari, the supply-chain expert. "The question now is, has the quest for lowest-cost production and hyper-lean supply chains overridden and exposed vulnerability to significant business risk?''

????It is a big, knotty issue for CEOs: Are bottom-line-oriented executives prepared to pull back from a system of low-cost suppliers and "just in time" manufacturing in favor of a more old-fashioned model that has plants squirreling away components for a rainy day, or, more dramatically, investing in backup facilities?

????For some companies the answer is a resounding yes. Seagate CEO Luczo says sophisticated companies have started asking his company for longer contracts on supply arrangements.

????Analysts say Nissan has bounced back better than other Japanese automakers because it was able to ramp up production at its other plants, including the Decherd facility. (One stroke of bad luck: Nissan also bolstered production at one of its operations in Thailand, which has been slowed by flooding.) FM Global, an insurance company based in Johnston, R.I., surveyed 600 chief financial officers in early 2011 and asked what they feared could derail their companies' revenue drivers. The most frequently cited answer? Supply-chain disruptions. And that survey was taken before the Japan earthquake.

????Carlos Ghosn, the CEO of Nissan, is philosophical. "There's going to be another crisis," he told an audience in New York in late November. "We don't know what kind of crisis, where it is going to hit us, and when it is going to hit us, but every time there is a crisis we are going to learn from it." If he's right, and crisis mode is the new normal, then the real cost advantage may not go to the manufacturer with the nimblest supply chain but the company with the most robust one.

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