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巴西天價罰單可能嚇跑外國石油公司

巴西天價罰單可能嚇跑外國石油公司

Cyrus Sanati 2011-12-23
巴西地方檢察官要求美國雪佛龍和瑞士Transocean石油公司就漏油事件賠付天價罰款,這一鬧劇可能打碎巴西成為石油出口大國的夢想。畢竟,巴西國家石油公司不能獨自成就這個夢想。

????這一罰款額相當于每漏一桶油須繳納罰金約350萬美元,遠遠高于美國每桶4,300美元的處罰上限。去年英國石油向墨西哥灣排放了400萬桶原油,被處以總罰金約35億美元,但也僅及雪佛龍現(xiàn)在泄漏3,000桶原油罰金的三分之一。

????但這筆令人錯愕的天價罰款可能永遠都不會得到償付。巴克萊(Barclays)的一項分析顯示,雪佛龍在巴西的資產(chǎn)總值估計只有41億美元左右。雪佛龍巴西子公司很可能會宣告破產(chǎn),讓里約州政府一個子兒也拿不到?,F(xiàn)如今,巨額罰款在石油世界已變得越來越常見。征收此類罰款的往往是像委內(nèi)瑞拉、哈薩克斯坦這樣的腐敗政府,罰款就是變相的勒索,目的是從已經(jīng)出產(chǎn)石油的公司榨取更多的錢。罰款也被用作政府接管石油資產(chǎn)的一個借口。

狂熱的地方檢察官

????在這一事件之前,巴西在處理與外國合作伙伴的關(guān)系方面記錄都還一直不錯。巴西一直鼓勵??松梨冢‥xxon Mobil)、殼牌(Shell)、雪佛龍和英國石油這樣的外資公司積極參與近海石油業(yè)務(wù),以此作為快速提高石油產(chǎn)量的途徑,因為巴西國家石油公司既沒有資金也沒有技術(shù)獨立完成這個任務(wù)。巴西希望到2020年實現(xiàn)石油產(chǎn)量翻番至每天約700萬桶,使巴西成為全球第三大石油出口國,僅次于俄羅斯和沙特。

????但巴西的聯(lián)邦體系已成為追逐這一夢想的絆腳石。聯(lián)邦政府想把石油開采權(quán)使用費在各州間更多地平均分配,改變由開采所在地的沿海幾個州獲得大頭的現(xiàn)狀。里約州是這一計劃的主要反對者,因為這會讓該州在未來幾年內(nèi)損失約70億美元石油開采權(quán)使用費??财账购屠锛s熱內(nèi)盧這樣的城市早已規(guī)劃將這些收入用于一些大型項目,尤其是2016年奧運會相關(guān)關(guān)項目。

????坎普斯的檢察官們通過此案向聯(lián)邦政府發(fā)出的信號是,要想拿走他們的石油收入,可得步步小心。如果雪佛龍被趕出這個國家,巴西成為西半球石油出口大國的夢想也將石沉大海。假如外資石油公司知道它們隨時可能會被某個小鎮(zhèn)上狂熱的檢察官趕出巴西,他們就絕不會再拿出什么資金來開發(fā)這個國家的石油資源。

????巴西需要外資石油公司的技術(shù)、設(shè)備和專業(yè)經(jīng)驗來發(fā)展本國石油產(chǎn)業(yè)。未來數(shù)年,光幾個新探明的超大油田投產(chǎn)估計就要投入6,000億美元。巴西還需要外資石油公司來維持生產(chǎn)。比如,單Transocean一家就經(jīng)營著巴西60個現(xiàn)役海上石油平臺中的10個。

????The fine is equivalent to around $3.5 million per barrel spilled and it dwarfs the U.S. maximum fine of around $4,300 per barrel spilled. BP's (BP) total fine for dumping 4 million barrels into the Gulf of Mexico last year came to around $3.5 billion, around a third of what Chevron is now facing with its 3,000 barrel belch.

????But the jaw-dropping fine will probably never be paid. Chevron's total oil assets in Brazil are estimated to be worth around $4.1 billion, according to an analysis conducted by Barclays. Chevron's Brazilian unit would probably declare bankruptcy before it shelled out one real to the Rio government. Egregious fines are becoming more common these days in the oil world. They are usually levied by corrupt states like Venezuela and Kazakhstan as a form of blackmail in order to extract more money from oil companies once they start production. They are also used as an excuse for a state takeover of oil assets.

Overzealous prosecutors

????Brazil has had a somewhat fair record in dealing with its foreign partners up until this point. It has actually encouraged foreign participation from oil giants like Exxon Mobil (XOM), Shell, Chevron and BP in its offshore oil business as a way of quickly ramping up production as Petrobras (PBR) had neither the money nor the expertise in doing it alone. The country wants to double its oil production capacity by 2020 to around 7 million barrels a day. That would make Brazil the third-largest oil exporter in the world behind Russia and Saudi Arabia.

????Brazil's federal system now has become a liability in that quest. The federal government wants to distribute more of the oil royalties evenly across all the states in Brazil, instead of the lion's share going to states on the coast where the drilling occurs. Rio has been a major critic of the plan as it stands to lose an estimated $7 billion over the next few years in oil royalties. Cities like Campos and Rio had already earmarked that money for grand projects, most notably, for the 2016 Olympic Games.

????The prosecutors in Campos are sending a message to Brasilia that it should tread carefully if it tries to take its oil money away. If it is successful in driving Chevron out of the country, Brazil's dreams to be the preeminent oil exporter in the western hemisphere would sink to the bottom of the ocean. Foreign oil companies would refuse to dish out any more money to develop the country's resources if it knew that it could be kicked out at any moment by overzealous prosecutors in small towns.

????Brazil needs the technology, equipment and expertise of foreign oil companies if it hopes to grow its oil industry. An estimated $600 billion will be needed over the years to get its newly discovered mega fields into production. Brazil also needs them to just maintain production. For example, Transocean alone operates 10 of the 60 offshore oil platforms currently in operation in Brazil.

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