薩拉?佩林有望角逐總統(tǒng)寶座

????每個(gè)人都愿意相信市場(chǎng)是有效的，能自動(dòng)篩除錯(cuò)誤信息和偏差，形成公允的價(jià)格。但2010年12月底，著名政治期貨公司InTrade的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，佩林獲得共和黨總統(tǒng)候選人提名的概率高于20%，結(jié)果證明這一次市場(chǎng)實(shí)在是錯(cuò)得太離譜了。雖然InTrade素以準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)總統(tǒng)大選等事件的最終贏家而聞名，但一年后的今天，佩林獲得提名的概率已降至僅0.4%（雖然她近日聲稱其他獲提名者要加入角逐“還不是太晚”）。

????2010年，佩林獲得提名的概率一度接近30%的高點(diǎn)，盡管此后這個(gè)數(shù)字大幅下降，但交易員們當(dāng)時(shí)依然相信暢銷書作者、政治專家佩林【據(jù)報(bào)道，她與?？怂剐侣?lì)l道（Fox News Channel）的電視合同每年可進(jìn)賬100萬(wàn)美元】很有可能獲得共和黨總統(tǒng)候選人提名。頂著“茶黨女王”的光環(huán)，佩林賺了個(gè)盆滿缽滿，人們真地以為她會(huì)競(jìng)選總統(tǒng)嗎？如今，InTrade的交易員們又押注前馬薩諸塞州州長(zhǎng)羅姆尼, 羅姆尼獲得共和黨總統(tǒng)候選人提名的概率已升至74%。

Sarah Palin for Republican nominee

????Everyone likes to think the market is efficient, ferreting out misinformation and biases to create a fair price. So how wrong was the prediction market late last December that put Sarah Palin's odds at winning the Republican presidential nomination at better than one in five? Those odds come via InTrade, the market known for accurately picking winners of presidential elections and other events. It was so wrong that today her odds of getting the nod sit at a mere 0.4% (despite her recent proclamation that "it's not too late" for other nominees to enter the race).

????Even after her chances plummeted from highs near 30% in 2010, traders still believed that Palin, the best-selling author and political pundit who reportedly earns $1 million annually from her Fox News Channel television contract, had a strong shot at earning Republicans' nomination. But with the riches Palin makes as a Tea Party darling, did people really think she'd run? Today the InTrade traders are betting on Romney, whose odds of winning the Republican nomination have risen to 74%.