????每年汽車業(yè)都會(huì)出現(xiàn)新的不確定性，2012年也不例外。細(xì)節(jié)決定成敗。隨著美國經(jīng)濟(jì)逐漸向好，受壓抑的需求得到增長，以及底特律三巨頭扭虧為贏，汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的生存已經(jīng)不成問題。問題在于市場(chǎng)的構(gòu)成：消費(fèi)者究竟會(huì)購買大型皮卡還是小轎車？進(jìn)口車還是美國本土貨？汽油車還是電動(dòng)車？

????在此僅列出2012年與汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)息息相關(guān)的10個(gè)問題，以及一些可能的答案：

1.底特律三巨頭能否保住市場(chǎng)份額？

????2012車型年，底特律三巨頭在美國國內(nèi)所占的市場(chǎng)份額較為穩(wěn)定，通用汽車（General Motors）和克萊斯勒（Chrysler）的市場(chǎng)占有率有所提高，只有福特的份額稍有下降。不過這個(gè)好消息可能只是暫時(shí)的，因?yàn)檫^去一年對(duì)于日本車商來說年景奇差。雖然美國市場(chǎng)回暖，但豐田（Toyota）和本田（Honda）在美國的銷量都出現(xiàn)了下滑。不過其它進(jìn)口品牌的市場(chǎng)份額一直在擴(kuò)大?，F(xiàn)代（Hyundai）和起亞（Kia）現(xiàn)在已成為美國市場(chǎng)上第6和第7大汽車品牌。同時(shí)雷克薩斯（Lexus）的銷量也超過了別克（Buick）、凱迪拉克（Cadillac）和林肯（Lincoln）。日產(chǎn)（Nissan）制定了奪取美國市場(chǎng)占有率10%的目標(biāo)，如果能夠如愿以償，屆時(shí)日產(chǎn)將成為美國市場(chǎng)銷量第4的品牌。大眾汽車（Volkswagen）在美國的上升勢(shì)頭也很快，如果它能實(shí)現(xiàn)80萬輛的年銷售目標(biāo)，那么其銷量將相當(dāng)于道奇（Dodge）和吉普（Jeep）兩個(gè)品牌當(dāng)前銷量的總和。由此可見，哪怕只求保住現(xiàn)有份額，底特律三巨頭也必須開足馬力。

2. 豐田能否卷土重來？

????2011年是豐田歷史上最多災(zāi)多難的一年，豐田接連經(jīng)受了自然災(zāi)害（地震、海嘯、洪水）、運(yùn)營（召回）和財(cái)務(wù)（強(qiáng)勢(shì)日元）上的打擊。對(duì)豐田持悲觀態(tài)度的人認(rèn)為，豐田這個(gè)一度榮膺全球銷量冠軍的品牌已經(jīng)無力回天了。豐田為爭(zhēng)奪全球第一而栽了跟頭，總裁豐田章男汲取教訓(xùn)，首次承諾將放棄“稱霸”，不過這并不表示他退縮了。豐田公司宣布將借新車型上市之機(jī)，將2012年的汽車產(chǎn)量大幅提高20%。

3.克萊斯勒能否重演成功？

????克萊斯勒的浴火重生是2011年的一段佳話。在吉普品牌的帶領(lǐng)下，克萊斯勒今年前11個(gè)月的銷量飆升了25%，超過了業(yè)界10%的升幅均值。這要?dú)w功于克萊斯勒對(duì)某些現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)品的成功升級(jí)和抓人眼球的廣告攻勢(shì)。不過，2012年克萊斯勒發(fā)布的新車相對(duì)較少。競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手也會(huì)越來越密切地關(guān)注克萊斯勒。同時(shí)菲亞特（Fiat）在歐洲遇到的一系列問題也很可能會(huì)讓CEO塞爾吉奧?馬基奧尼分心。

4. 美國人究竟會(huì)不會(huì)愛上小型車？

????盡管雪佛蘭科魯茲（Chevy Cruze）和福特福克斯（Focus）這種小型車在市場(chǎng)上很有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，但是美國市場(chǎng)上的暢銷車型還是以全尺寸皮卡和中型轎車為主。今年高調(diào)上市的微型車菲亞特500遭到市場(chǎng)冷遇。油價(jià)走高和聯(lián)邦法規(guī)等因素可能終有一天會(huì)讓消費(fèi)者開始考慮小型轎車，但現(xiàn)在看來，大家還都不著急。

????Every year brings new uncertainties to the car business, and 2012 will be no different. The devil will be in the details. With the U.S. economy expanding, pent-up demand growing, and the Detroit Three earning, the survival of the industry is not in question so much as is its composition. Will buyers be looking for big trucks or small cars, import brands or domestics, gasoline-power or electricity?

????Here are ten questions -- along with some possible answers -- that will churn the auto world in 2012:

1. Will the Detroit Three begin losing share again to the imports?

????Domestic market share was stable in 2012 with General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) and Chrysler gaining a bit and Ford (F, Fortune 500) losing a smidgen, but the good news may be only temporary. Detroit benefited from an unusually bad year for the Japanese, with both Toyota and Honda losing sales in a rising market. But other imports keep getting stronger. Hyundai and Kia are now the sixth and seventh most popular U.S. brands, while Lexus outsells Buick, Cadillac, and Lincoln. Nissan has targeted a 10% market share, which would put it in fourth place in U.S. sales. Moving up quickly is Volkswagen, which, if it achieves its goal of 800,000 car sales, would become as large as Dodge and Jeep combined are today. Detroit will have to drive fast just to stay even.

2. Can Toyota reload?

????Flattened by disasters natural (earthquake, tsunami, floods), operational (recalls), and financial (the expensive yen), Toyota suffered a landmark annus horribilis in 2011. Naysayers are insisting the former global sales champ has fallen back in the pack. Perhaps. President Akio Toyoda forswears any of the "we're Number One" talk that got the company in trouble the first time, but he isn't holding back; the automaker has announced plans to boost production on the strength of new models by an aggressive 20% in 2012.

3. Can Chrysler repeat its success?

????Chrysler's Phoenix-like rise from the ashes was the feel-good story of 2011. Led by Jeep, its sales rose 25% through November, outpacing the market's overall 10% gain. Credit the surge to some smart updates for the existing product line and some attention-getting advertising. But new model launches will be scarcer in 2012, competitors will be watching more closely, and CEO Sergio Marchionne will likely be distracted by problems in Europe at Fiat.

4. Will Americans ever get comfortable with small cars?

????Full-size pickups and mid-size sedans still dominate the best-seller list despite newly competitive small entries like the Chevy Cruze and Ford Focus. Meanwhile, the high-profile launch of the Fiat 500 minicar fizzled. Rising gasoline prices and federal regulations ensure that customers will have to think small someday, but nobody seems to be in a hurry to start.