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初創(chuàng)企業(yè)盈利掛帥對(duì)不對(duì)

初創(chuàng)企業(yè)盈利掛帥對(duì)不對(duì)

Mark Suster 2012-01-11
初創(chuàng)企業(yè)必須在盈利和成長之間作出取舍。如果不把今天的盈利投資到明天的成長上,當(dāng)然可以推高利潤。同理,如果要維持高速的發(fā)展,必然需要把今天的一部分利潤投資到擴(kuò)大再生產(chǎn),謀求明天的發(fā)展壯大。

細(xì)節(jié)

????我和很多第一次創(chuàng)業(yè)的人都進(jìn)行過這樣的談話。他們已融資二、三百萬美元,推出的一款產(chǎn)品已有了相當(dāng)?shù)氖袌鲇绊懥?,年化營業(yè)收入在100萬美元左右。

????處在這樣的階段,作為創(chuàng)始人,你會(huì)覺得無限接近盈利。很多人也許會(huì)想:“今年我要大力控制成本,力爭實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利。我不想虧欠投資者?!蔽业幕卮鹜牵骸皼]問題。但你的最終目標(biāo)是什么?你計(jì)劃在未來一到兩年出售公司嗎?還是說你打算保持較小的規(guī)模,但維持不錯(cuò)的利潤?你設(shè)想過將來吸引風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資、打造一家發(fā)展速度更快的公司嗎?”

????由于我所在的圈子,我常常會(huì)遇到很多這樣的人,他們的最終目的是希望打造一家大公司,因此希望最終能吸引到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資,“做大做強(qiáng)”。但他們希望通過舉債實(shí)現(xiàn)這個(gè)目標(biāo)。這個(gè)階段的投資者更關(guān)心增長,而不是盈利,因此要小心別弄巧成拙。我了解創(chuàng)業(yè)者對(duì)掌控感的渴望,盈利能給予你一切盡在掌握之中的感覺。但這不能以犧牲著眼于增長的投資為代價(jià)。

????如果你的公司三年前募集了300萬美元的資金,如今已實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利,營業(yè)收入達(dá)到150萬美元,風(fēng)投家的反應(yīng)可能是“那又怎樣?”這種不以為然的態(tài)度或許會(huì)讓人難以接受,但事實(shí)就是這樣。

????如果公司客戶增長迅速,只是沒有致力于營收,則是另外一回事了。如果這三年時(shí)間你是在完善一些高度細(xì)分的技術(shù)知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán),可能同樣無可厚非。但如果你放慢腳步只是為了證明你有能力盈利,那么未來再要進(jìn)行融資時(shí),可能就要另尋門路了。

理解利潤

????我看損益表時(shí),首先會(huì)看的是營業(yè)收入一欄。對(duì)于所有想了解一家公司業(yè)務(wù)狀況的人們來說,營業(yè)收入有沒有增長很重要。

????每次記者們向我問起上市公司股票時(shí),我也總是提到這一點(diǎn)。兩家 “盈利”(利潤)都是1億美元的公司可能有著截然不同的未來。一家公司營業(yè)收入的年增幅可能達(dá)到50%,而另一家只有5%。假定它們的凈利潤率(利潤/營收)完全一樣,那么到年底時(shí),前一家公司的狀況就會(huì)好得多。因此,雖然最簡單的股票估值指標(biāo)是市盈率,但我們也需要參照市盈率相對(duì)盈利增長比率(PEG)等其他指標(biāo)。

投資者看重的是增長

????一家公司的價(jià)值就是將未來所有現(xiàn)金流預(yù)期總額按貼現(xiàn)率折算的當(dāng)前現(xiàn)值(正如你所知,明年的1美元沒有今天的1美元值錢)。高增長的公司更有可能在未來產(chǎn)生更高的利潤總額。

????因此,評(píng)估一家公司的時(shí)候,首先要看“增長”。光看兩家公司的盈利數(shù)據(jù)無法了解它們的前景孰優(yōu)孰劣。

????如果(是像風(fēng)投公司一樣)考察的是更早期的公司(就像風(fēng)投一樣),那么客戶增長可能比營收增長還要重要。

營收本質(zhì)很重要

????評(píng)估已經(jīng)開始產(chǎn)生營業(yè)收入的公司時(shí),我希望能更詳細(xì)地了解營收一欄。營收由什么構(gòu)成?只有一項(xiàng)產(chǎn)品,還是多項(xiàng)產(chǎn)品?20%的客戶貢獻(xiàn)了80%的營收,還是三大客戶貢獻(xiàn)了80%的營收?

????這就是所謂的“營收集中度”,營收集中度越高,未來收入下降的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)就越大。

????我還希望弄清其他一些事情,比如產(chǎn)品的定價(jià)機(jī)制,競爭對(duì)手的定價(jià)策略,你未來的定價(jià)預(yù)期等等。隨著競爭加劇,價(jià)格被迫下降,早期的高成長往往不得不放慢。

The Details

????I have had this discussion with many a first-time entrepreneur. They have have raised $2-3 million, built a product that has some amount of market traction and got to annualized revenues of around $1 million.

????At this level, as a founder you feel SO CLOSE to profitability that many say, "I'm going to keep my costs really low this year to try and hit profitability. I don't want to be beholden to investors." My response is often, "That's fine. What's your objective? Are you looking to potentially sell the company in the next year or two? Do you plan to run this as a smaller business but maintain healthy profits? Do you imagine eventually raising VC and trying to build a faster growing company?"

????Because of the circles I run in I tend to meet many people who eventually do want to build large companies and therefore do want to eventually raise VC and "go big." But they want to do it with leverage. Investors at this stage care way more about growth than profits so be careful not to shoot yourself in the foot. I certainly understand the desire to be in control, which is what you are when you earn a profit. Just be careful that it doesn't come at the expense of investments in growth.

????The likely response of a VC to your company that raised $3 million and now is profitably doing $1.5 million in revenue three years later is, "So effing what?" Harsh, but real.

????If you had huge customer growth but just didn't focus on revenue that's a different story. If you spent the 3 years perfecting some hugely differentiated technology IP that may also be different. But if you simply went more slowly to show you could earn a profit you may need to look for alternative funding sources to fuel your future growth.

Understanding profits

????When I look at an income statement, I start by focusing on the revenue line. One thing that should matter to all people trying to understand the performance of a company is whether it has revenue growth.

????I always remind this to journalists who ask me about public stocks. If you have two companies each with $100 million in "earnings" (profits) they might have vastly different prospects for the future. One company might be growing its revenue at 50% per year and the other might be growing at 5% per year. And assuming they both had the same net profit margins (profit / revenue) then the former company would be much better off at the end of the year. So while the simplest way that people often evaluate stocks is by P/E ratios (price-to-earnings), one also needs to look at other metrics such as the PEG (price-to-earnings-growth).

Investors value growth

????The value of a company is the expected value of all future cashflows discounted back to today's dollar (because as you know a next year is worth less than a dollar today) and a company that is growing more quickly is more likely to yield better overall profits in the future.

????So for a start when you want to evaluate companies you want to evaluate "growth." Looking a earnings alone across two companies won't tell you the picture of the different prospects.

????And when you're looking at even earlier-stage companies (as VCs do) you might be even more focused on customer growth than revenue growth.

The nature of your revenue matters

????When I do evaluate companies that already have revenue, I actually want to understand the revenue line in more detail. What makes up revenue? Is it one product line or many? Do 20% of the customers make 80% of the revenue or do the top 3 customers represent 80% of the revenue.

????This is called "revenue concentration" and the more concentrated your revenue the higher the risk that your revenue could decline in the future.

????I also try to understand things like how you're pricing your product, how your competitors price and what your pricing expectations will be in the future. Fast early growth in a market is often eroded when competition gets fierce and prices are forced down due to competition.

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