????盡管每隔一段時間，巴基斯坦的壞消息就會滿天飛，該國前總理及前財長肖卡特?阿齊茲依然對祖國的前景保持了謹慎的樂觀，其中也包括美國從阿富汗有序撤軍可能帶來的和平紅利。但他同時表示，最終還得取決于是否會出現(xiàn)類似馬歇爾計劃（Marshall Plan）的阿富汗重建方案，以及美國履行部落經(jīng)濟發(fā)展計劃的情況。

????西方國家早已捉襟見肘、心煩意亂，因此這樣的要求似乎太高了。這種“晴間多云”預(yù)測頗有技術(shù)官員的風(fēng)格，它對于阿齊茲來說堪稱家常便飯。這位前花旗銀行（Citibank）高管曾在1999年佩爾韋茲?穆沙拉夫?qū)④姲l(fā)動政變后出任巴基斯坦財長，在任期間巴基斯坦經(jīng)濟呈現(xiàn)強勁增長。（穆沙拉夫日前剛宣布，近期將冒著被捕的風(fēng)險，從迪拜返回巴基斯坦。穆沙拉夫自從卸任總統(tǒng)一職后，一直住在迪拜。）

????現(xiàn)年64歲的阿齊茲于2004年當(dāng)選巴基斯坦總理（雖然競選時一度險遭暗殺），2007年卸任。此前，他的23位前任均半途卸任，他是首位完成整個任期的總理。卸任后不久，阿齊茲即移居倫敦，現(xiàn)任英國連鎖酒店千禧國敦酒店集團（Millennium and Copthorne Hotels）董事和百仕通集團（Blackstone Group）顧問。

????近日阿齊茲接受了《財富》雜志（Fortune）專訪，暢談巴基斯坦經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)狀、阿富汗重建事宜以及巴基斯坦應(yīng)與美國達成自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的緣由。下面是經(jīng)過編輯的訪談記錄：

高盛（Goldman Sachs）將巴基斯坦列入“新鉆十一國”已六年有余。然而，當(dāng)前巴基斯坦的情況是，通脹攀升，投資處于40年以來的低點，基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施惡化，特別是電力行業(yè)。無論從哪項指標(biāo)看，情況都不是特別好，你對巴基斯坦經(jīng)濟的樂觀源于何處？

????世界經(jīng)濟問題顯然也影響到了巴基斯坦。沒錯，投資額在下降，貿(mào)易額也一樣，但就巴基斯坦而言，主要原因還是安全局勢，也就是反恐戰(zhàn)爭。我們?yōu)榇瞬坏貌桓冻鼍薮蟮拇鷥r，國內(nèi)外投資者的信心深受打擊。

????但同時，我們要知道巴基斯坦有2/3以上的人口居住在農(nóng)村，農(nóng)業(yè)情況不錯，特別是棉花——棉花價格和出口量都出現(xiàn)了增長，農(nóng)民生活相對改善。

????巴基斯坦的人力資本是一個很大的優(yōu)勢。巴基斯坦人民很聰明，技能出眾，工作努力。還有很多巴基斯坦人在海外工作，我們可以再輸出幾百萬的勞動力，而勞動力質(zhì)量一點兒也不會差，因為我們有的是訓(xùn)練有素和尚未接受培訓(xùn)的勞動力。

你提到了需要好的管理。你會怎么評價當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟管理？特別是考慮到，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的穩(wěn)定計劃即將終止。

????拋開IM顯然這反映了政府希望在推行改革時擁有更大的靈活性。IMF的計劃確實帶來了某種程度的宏觀經(jīng)濟自律，它無疑是有益的，但同時我也相信經(jīng)濟主權(quán)。我們的確需要有良好的治理和管理，但將經(jīng)濟大權(quán)交給IMF絕不是辦法。我們與世界其他國家一樣，需要看到經(jīng)濟增長就業(yè)機會增加。

????Despite the regular eruptions of bad news from Pakistan, Shaukat Aziz, a former finance and prime minister there, remains cautiously bullish about his country's prospects, including the peace dividend that could come with the orderly exit of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. But that depends, he says, on a Marshall Plan-like reconstruction of Afghanistan -- and the U.S. delivering on tribal economic development plans.

????That might seem overly ambitious for distracted Western capitals with tapped out coffers. But the 'mostly-sunny' technocratic vision is not unusual for Aziz, a former Citibank (C) executive who presided over strong growth as finance minister after General Pervez Musharraf staged a coup in 1999. (Musharraf just announced he would shortly be returning to Pakistan -- and risking arrest -- from Dubai where he has been since leaving office.)

????Aziz, 64, was elected prime minister in 2004 (surviving an assassination attempt while campaigning) and was the first of 23 predecessors to serve out a full term, until 2007. He took up residence in London soon after and now serves on the board of the British hotel chain Millennium and Copthorne Hotels, and as an advisor to the Blackstone Group (BX).

????Aziz recently spoke with Fortune about the state of Pakistan's economy, how to rebuild Afghanistan, and why Pakistan deserves a free trade agreement with the U.S. Below is an edited transcript of that discussion.

It's been more than six years since Goldman Sachs (GS) recognized Pakistan among the Next Eleven newly industrialized countries -- inflation is up, investment is at a 40-year low, and infrastructure is deteriorating, particularly in the power sector. By just about any measure things are not particularly good, so what is the source of your optimism about the Pakistani economy?

????The problems of the world economy have obviously leaked to Pakistan. Yes, investment is down, trade also, but in Pakistan's case a lot of this is due to the security situation, the war on terror. We have to pay a huge price in terms of damaging our investor confidence -- both domestic and foreign.

????On the other hand, we should bear in mind that more than two-thirds of the population lives in rural areas and agriculture has done well, especially in cotton -- prices and exports are up and the farmer is relatively more comfortable.

????The country's human capital is a strong suit, the Pakistani people are very talented, their skills levels are impressive and they are hard-working. There's a huge number of Pakistanis working overseas and we can export a few more million and there won't be an iota of difference because there is a whole pipeline of trained – and untrained - people coming.

You mentioned the need for good management. How would you assess the current management of the economy? I ask that in light of the lapsing of the stabilization plan with the IMF.

????Being out of the IMF -- obviously this reflects the desire of the government to have more flexibility to pursue its reforms. The IMF program does bring with it certain macroeconomic discipline and that's beneficial, but I also believe in economic sovereignty. You need good governance and good management, but abdicating the economy to the IMF is not the way to succeed. What we need is growth and job creation, like every other country in the world.