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人人借Facebook上市東風(fēng)強(qiáng)勢(shì)反彈

人人借Facebook上市東風(fēng)強(qiáng)勢(shì)反彈

Bill Powell 2012-02-09
Facebook宣布IPO之前的一周,中國(guó)版的Facebook——人人股價(jià)大漲60%多,令公司首席執(zhí)行官陳一舟倍感輕松。且看他打算如何延續(xù)這樣的好勢(shì)頭?

????Facebook的IPO計(jì)劃炒得沸沸揚(yáng)揚(yáng)。問及這一切對(duì)他一手創(chuàng)立和經(jīng)營(yíng)的、所謂“中國(guó)的Facebook”——人人公司意味著什么時(shí),陳一舟低聲笑了,因?yàn)檫@個(gè)問題要遠(yuǎn)比看上去復(fù)雜得多。

????Facebook確認(rèn)計(jì)劃于今年晚些時(shí)候上市之前一周,人人(Renren)的股票(在紐約證交所交易的美國(guó)存托憑證)價(jià)格漲幅超過60%。這讓陳一舟倍感輕松,因?yàn)樽詮娜ツ?月人人上市初始即創(chuàng)下歷史高點(diǎn)24美元以來,該股總體處于加速下跌通道,上個(gè)月更是創(chuàng)下了52周低點(diǎn)的3.20美元。

????股價(jià)下跌是多重負(fù)面因素疊加的結(jié)果。不可否認(rèn),當(dāng)初人人進(jìn)行IPO時(shí),它自己的宣傳同樣有點(diǎn)過火。當(dāng)你把“中國(guó)”和“Facebook”這兩個(gè)詞放在同一個(gè)句子中,用“的”連接起來,至少會(huì)吸引一部分投資者不問青紅皂白便立即買入。畢竟,中國(guó)擁有全球數(shù)量最多的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)用戶,國(guó)內(nèi)社交網(wǎng)站仍處于發(fā)展初期。根據(jù)美國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)流量監(jiān)測(cè)機(jī)構(gòu)comScore Media Metrix的數(shù)據(jù),中國(guó)只有38.4%的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)用戶使用社交網(wǎng)站,低于全球的69.8%和美國(guó)的81.4%。顯然,中國(guó)社交網(wǎng)站存在巨大的發(fā)展空間。

????但去年,中國(guó)概念小盤股在美國(guó)股市遭遇重創(chuàng),主要是因?yàn)橥顿Y者越來越擔(dān)心這些公司公開財(cái)務(wù)披露的可靠性。就在人人IPO之前幾天,備受空頭推崇的民間調(diào)查機(jī)構(gòu)Citron Research發(fā)布了一份報(bào)告,質(zhì)疑一家公司公布的數(shù)據(jù),而該公司的首席財(cái)務(wù)官德雷克?帕拉舒克同時(shí)也是人人公司董事會(huì)的成員,擔(dān)任人人公司審計(jì)委員會(huì)主席。此事一出,帕拉舒克很快宣布辭去人人公司董事會(huì)職務(wù),此舉得到了人人公司幾位風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資者的歡迎。

????盡管如此,做空者日益關(guān)注中國(guó)概念小盤股,基本上導(dǎo)致了相關(guān)股票的全面暴跌,不管它們的數(shù)據(jù)是否應(yīng)當(dāng)受到質(zhì)疑。它們被不加區(qū)分地賣空,人人公司也未能幸免。

????不過,除了投資者普遍對(duì)中國(guó)概念股存疑外,導(dǎo)致這些股價(jià)暴跌還有別的原因。其中當(dāng)然也少不了對(duì)中國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)行業(yè),尤其是社交網(wǎng)站的普遍誤解。上周,42歲的陳一舟試圖借Facebook的IPO效應(yīng)、進(jìn)一步說明他的公司和業(yè)務(wù)情況。陳一舟和首席財(cái)務(wù)官黃輝強(qiáng)調(diào),外部人士首先要了解一點(diǎn),即便眾所周知Facebook在中國(guó)被禁,這絕不意味著“中國(guó)的Facebook”沒有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。

????事實(shí)上,情況正好相反。中國(guó)的社交網(wǎng)站市場(chǎng)的分化遠(yuǎn)比美國(guó)嚴(yán)重,大量互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司都在進(jìn)入這個(gè)領(lǐng)域,雖然它們也許并未自詡為“克隆版Facebook”。

????比如新浪(Sina),它擁有中國(guó)最知名的、號(hào)稱“中國(guó)版Twitter”的微博網(wǎng)站。還有以即時(shí)通訊服務(wù)QQ著稱的騰訊(Tencent)。騰訊還經(jīng)營(yíng)著QQ空間(Qzone)。雖然分析人士質(zhì)疑騰訊所謂的“活躍”,但這家公司仍然自稱擁有4.81億“活躍用戶”。去年秋季,騰訊對(duì)另一家社交網(wǎng)站開心網(wǎng)(Kaixin001)注資(投資數(shù)額未予披露),希望藉此創(chuàng)建一個(gè)所謂的“實(shí)名”網(wǎng)站(即和人人一樣,要求用戶實(shí)名注冊(cè),不能用虛擬網(wǎng)名)。開心網(wǎng)用戶和人人一樣,大多是居住在城市中受過良好教育的年輕用戶。因此,陳一舟說中國(guó)的社交網(wǎng)站市場(chǎng)比“美國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)更激烈”,所言不虛。

????FORTUNE -- Joseph Chen chuckles a bit when asked what the hype surrounding Facebook's announced plans for an initial public offering means for the company he founded and runs, Renren Inc., the so called "Facebook of China." He chuckles because the question is more complicated than it seems.

????In the week prior to Facebook's confirmation that it was, in fact, going public later this year, Renren's (RENN) stock (its ADRs trade on the NYSE) leapt by more than 60%. That had to come as a relief to Chen, because ever since it went public last May -- when the stock hit a peak of $24 just after it's IPO -- it s been on an escalator ride straight down, hitting a 52-week low of just $3.20 last month.

????The stock price plunge was the result of a perfect storm. There was, let's face it, a bit of hype surrounding its own IPO. When you put the words "Facebook" and "China" together in the same sentence, separated by the word "of," at least a percentage of the investing universe is going to buy first and ask questions later. After all, there are more Internet users in China than anywhere else, and social networking sites are still in their infancy. According to comScore Media Metrix, 38.4% of Internet users in China engage in social networking, compared to 69.8% globally and 81.4% in the United States. Clearly, there is huge room for growth here.

????But small cap China stocks were savaged in U.S. markets last year, mainly because of growing concerns about the credibility of their public financial disclosures. Just days before Renren's IPO, Citron Research, whose work is widely read by short sellers, issued a report questioning the numbers of a company whose CFO was also serving on Renren's board as head of its audit committee. The executive, Derek Palaschuk, resigned from Renren's board, a move that several venture capitalist Renren investors welcomed.

????Nonetheless, the intensifying focus among short sellers on Chinese small caps has basically led to a rout in the market for them, whether their numbers are legitimately questionable or not. They've been beaten down indiscriminately, Renren among them.

????Still, there was more to the beat-down than just widespread nervousness over Chinese stocks. A misunderstanding of the Chinese Internet space in general, and social networking in particular, certainly played a part. Chen, 42, used the Facebook moment last week to try to explain his company and his business. The first thing outsiders need to understand, he and CFO Hui Huang stress, is that even though Facebook is famously blocked in China by the government, that doesn't mean the "Facebook of China" lacks competition.

????It's quite the opposite, in fact. China's market for social networking sites is much more fragmented than it is in the United States, with any number of companies not normally identified as "Facebook clones" trying to ease into the space.

????Sina.com (SINA), which runs China's pre-eminent micro-blogging site -- typically described as the "Twitter of China" -- is there. So too is Tencent, best known for its instant messaging service, QQ. It already operates a site called Qzone, which, it claims, has 481 million "active users" -- though analysts question what Tencent's definition of "active" is. Last fall, the company invested an undisclosed sum in another social networking site called Kaixin001, with which it intends to create a so-called "real name" site (which means, as with Renren, users are required to register using their real names, not some fake Internet handle). Kaixin's users, like Renren's, tend to be young, urban, and well educated. So when Chen says China's social networking market is "more competitive than the U.S.," he's right.

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