????這股推動力量背后不乏一些大公司，比如通用電氣（General Electric）、迪爾（Deere）和波音（Boeing）。通用電氣尤其積極，聲稱如果兩國貿(mào)易關(guān)系恢復(fù)正?；ㄓ秒姎獾膰姎馐斤w機引擎關(guān)稅將從20%降至5%。它將給通用電氣的利潤率帶來可觀的提升，并拓寬一線產(chǎn)品在俄羅斯市場的銷售空間。

????如果俄羅斯無法將禁止某些食品和汽車的進口，美國農(nóng)業(yè)和汽車行業(yè)的公司也會受益。這對于ConAgra、ADM等美國大型農(nóng)產(chǎn)品加工企業(yè)以及福特（Ford）、通用汽車（GM）和克萊斯勒（Chrysler）等汽車生產(chǎn)商無疑是一大利好。

????華爾街勢必也將受益于所有這些在俄羅斯進行的新投資。一旦俄羅斯被視為一個可靠的資本投資地，機構(gòu)投資者將會要求增加在俄羅斯的投資敞口，導(dǎo)致大量股權(quán)和債務(wù)資本流入俄羅斯市場，而所有這些都會給華爾街銀行家們帶來豐厚的費用性收入。

????另一方面，目前將倫敦作為營運基地的俄羅斯大公司可能也會將某些運營轉(zhuǎn)移到紐約。由于投資者構(gòu)成關(guān)系，目前大多數(shù)俄羅斯大公司、甚至是準國有公司都選擇在倫敦、甚至是香港掛牌上市，而不是在莫斯科。隨著其投資者構(gòu)成中西半球投資者的比例上升，在流動性良好的紐約上市將變得更有意義。紐約證交所（NYSE）一直在爭取俄羅斯公司——兩國貿(mào)易關(guān)系的全面正?；芸赡芗铀龠@個新出現(xiàn)的進程。

????有些俄羅斯公司可能會將運營移至華爾街，與此同時，美國銀行也可能在莫斯科找到新的商機。世貿(mào)條例首次允許純外資銀行在俄羅斯開設(shè)業(yè)務(wù)。唯一的限制是，整個銀行業(yè)的50%仍須由俄羅斯人掌控。

????俄美貿(mào)易關(guān)系全面正常化的好處真真切切，但要看到所有這些變成現(xiàn)實，仍然需要等待數(shù)年的時間。由于擔心可能沖擊國內(nèi)某些行業(yè)，俄羅斯將花七年的時間逐步降低關(guān)稅，而且不會完全取消關(guān)稅。履行入世承諾后，俄羅斯平均進口關(guān)稅預(yù)計將從目前的10%下降到7.8%。俄羅斯同意自入世之日起下調(diào)33%的商品關(guān)稅，兩年后再下調(diào)25%。

????部分產(chǎn)業(yè)的過渡期將更為漫長。汽車和航空產(chǎn)業(yè)的關(guān)稅將在7年內(nèi)下調(diào)，其中汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的關(guān)稅將從9.5%降至7.3%。部分農(nóng)產(chǎn)品有8年的過渡期，農(nóng)產(chǎn)品平均關(guān)稅將從13.2%降至10.8%。另外，新協(xié)議允許外資首次進入俄羅斯保險業(yè)，但這要等到俄羅斯入世九年之后。

????據(jù)部分民主黨參議員稱，美國參議院關(guān)于俄羅斯貿(mào)易的討論預(yù)計還將持續(xù)幾周，相關(guān)議案可能會在未來幾個月內(nèi)獲得通過。美國和俄羅斯政界都對新的開放程度以及可能產(chǎn)生的成果持謹慎樂觀的態(tài)度。但它給兩國帶來的好處毋庸置疑。唯一的不確定性因素是俄羅斯是否會遵守世貿(mào)規(guī)定。只有時間能告訴我們答案。

????Some of the big companies behind the push include General Electric (GE), Deere (DE) and Boeing (BA). GE has been especially vocal, saying that tariffs on its jet engines would fall from 20% to 5% if trade was normalized between the two nations. That would deliver a sizable boost to its profit margin and increase the availability of top-notch products to the Russian market.

????Companies in the agricultural space and the automotive space will also benefit as Russia will no longer be able to bar the importation of certain food stuffs and automobiles. This could be a great boost for major US factory farm companies like ConAgra (CAG) and ADM (ADM) as well as car manufacturers like Ford (F), GM (GM) and Chrysler.

????Wall Street stands to benefit from all this new investment in Russia too. If Russia is seen as a solid place to invest capital, institutional investors will demand greater access to it. This could lead to a large influx of equity and debt capital into Russia's domestic market, all of which would yield juicy fees for Wall Street bankers.

????On the flip side, the large Russian companies that currently see London as a base of operation could be lured into moving some of their operations to New York. Currently, most large Russian companies, even the quasi-state owned ones, choose to list their stock in London and even Hong Kong over Moscow given their investor bases. As more of their investor base moves to the western hemisphere it will make more sense to list in the liquid New York markets. The NYSE has been courting Russian companies -- full trade normalization will most likely accelerate this nascent process.

????And while some Russian companies might move operations to Wall Street, U.S. banks may see new opportunities in Moscow. The WTO rules allow for 100% foreign-owned banks to open in Russia for the first time. The only limit is that 50% of the entire banking sector must remain in Russian hands.

????But while the benefits of full trade normalization are real, it will be many years before all the changes are implemented. Fearing a shock to some of its industries, Russia will be decreasing its tariffs over a 7-year period and will not be phasing them out. On average, Russian tariffs on imported goods are expected to decrease from 10% to 7.8% when all is said and done. Russia agreed to lower 33% of its tariffs from the date at which they enter the WTO. It will drop them another 25% after three years.

????Some industries will have much longer lead times than others. Tariffs in the automotive and airline industries will drop in seven years, with the tariff on autos going from 9.5% to 7.3%. Meanwhile some agricultural products have an eight year time lag, with the average agricultural tariff falling from 13.2% to 10.8%. And while the new agreement will allow foreign investment in Russia's insurance industry for the first time ever, it will be nine years before that market is open to investors.

????The Senate is expected to continue debating Russian trade for a few more weeks, with passage expected in the next few months, according to Senate Democrats. Both U.S. and Russian politicians are cautiously optimistic about this new level of openness and what it might produce. But the net benefits for both countries seem to be solid. The only wild card is whether or not Russia will truly play by the WTO rules. Only time will tell.