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頁(yè)巖氣取代可再生能源行不通

頁(yè)巖氣取代可再生能源行不通

Sunil Sharan 2012-03-27
如果我們真的希望能在本世紀(jì)內(nèi)解決全球變暖問(wèn)題,那就必須迅速針對(duì)礦藏資源、風(fēng)能、太陽(yáng)能和核能制定綜合的大規(guī)模部署方案,而不是盯著天然氣。

?????頁(yè)巖氣的第二大吸引力,也可能是更大的吸引力在于其經(jīng)濟(jì)利益。根據(jù)安永會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所(Ernst & Young)報(bào)告,2011年石油和天然氣交易額高達(dá)3,170億美元,其中660億美元與頁(yè)巖氣相關(guān)。報(bào)告認(rèn)為,這種趨勢(shì)還將繼續(xù),而代價(jià)則是犧牲對(duì)傳統(tǒng)可再生能源的投資。頁(yè)巖氣的迅猛發(fā)展已經(jīng)造就了六七位新的億萬(wàn)富豪。如今,人們都把頁(yè)巖氣行業(yè)比作蓬勃發(fā)展時(shí)期的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)業(yè)。但正如互聯(lián)網(wǎng)業(yè)泡沫后來(lái)的破裂,頁(yè)巖氣這個(gè)理想黃金國(guó)如今也面臨著風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。由于供過(guò)于求,價(jià)格下跌,頁(yè)巖氣生產(chǎn)商也面臨著相當(dāng)嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)。

????奧巴馬總統(tǒng)提出,美國(guó)還有近一百年的天然氣儲(chǔ)備量,但美國(guó)政府下屬的能源信息管理局(Energy Information Administration)卻對(duì)這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)提出了質(zhì)疑。厄運(yùn)已經(jīng)降臨到了清潔科技產(chǎn)業(yè)。決策層需要就是否用頁(yè)巖氣替代可再生能源做出決定,或者效仿中國(guó),培育兩種能源共存的機(jī)制。要知道,中國(guó)頁(yè)巖存儲(chǔ)量可比美國(guó)龐大得多。

????Sunil Sharan是西埃拉能源咨詢公司(Sierra Consulting)的創(chuàng)始人。他曾供職于通用電氣公司(General Electric),并在2008年到2009年期間擔(dān)任通用電氣智能電網(wǎng)項(xiàng)目(Smart Grid Initiative)負(fù)責(zé)人。他在能源行業(yè)擁有11年多的工作經(jīng)驗(yàn)。他的郵箱

????譯者:李玫曉/汪皓

?????Shale's second, and perhaps greater attraction, is money. Of the $317 billion in oil and gas deals struck in 2011, $66 billion were shale-related, according to accounting firm Ernst & Young. The trend, they believe, will continue, and at the expense of investment in traditional renewables. Already, the shale surge has minted a half-dozen new billionaires, and is being likened to the Internet boom. But just as the latter went bust, so is the shale El Dorado at risk. Shale prices have tumbled from about $8 for a unit of gas in 2008 to roughly $2.50 now. With supply outstripping demand, low prices are crippling producers.

????President Obama claims that America has a nearly 100-year supply of natural gas, but his own Energy Information Administration contests his contention. A blight has already descended on the clean tech industry. Policymakers have to decide whether shale is enticing enough to give renewables a rebuff, or whether the two can coexist, just like what China, which has much greater shale deposits than us, is fostering.

????Sunil Sharan is the founder of Sierra Consulting, an energy consulting firm. He was formerly with General Electric (GE), where he served as the director of GE's Smart Grid Initiative from 2008 to 2009. He has worked in the energy industry for over 11 years, and can be reached at Email?.

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