????汽車銷售也許遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)無法與iPad或大熱影片《饑餓游戲》（Hunger Games）的門票相提并論，但全球汽車銷量確實正在節(jié)節(jié)攀升。2005年以來，全球已售出超過7,500萬輛小轎車和卡車，增幅高達(dá)18%。美國銀行美林證券（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）預(yù)計，今年汽車業(yè)將進(jìn)一步增長3.9%。

????然而銷量增加帶來的好處并沒有均衡分配到各個品牌。利潤其實日益流向一小撮北美、歐洲和亞洲的大公司。它們利用自身的規(guī)模，盡可能地在這個行業(yè)獲得規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。未來數(shù)年里，這些公司將會變得更為龐大。如果能有效發(fā)揮自己的非凡能量，它們可能會讓世界上其他汽車廠商統(tǒng)統(tǒng)淪為配角。

????汽車界一些最富有遠(yuǎn)見的首席執(zhí)行官都在思考著有關(guān)規(guī)模、銷量以及如何最好地實現(xiàn)這些目標(biāo)的問題。就在上周，雷諾-尼桑公司（Renault-Nissan）的首席執(zhí)行官卡洛斯?戈恩在紐約車展（New York auto show）上的發(fā)言就談到這個問題。他說：“汽車業(yè)靠的是規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)，獲得富有競爭力的規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)所需要達(dá)到的最低產(chǎn)量正不斷提高?！?/p>

????是的，還要不斷加碼。就像尼桑公司（Nissan）的一位高管向我透露的：“現(xiàn)在的1,000萬輛等同于曾經(jīng)的800萬輛?！?/p>

????菲亞特-克萊斯勒公司（Fiat-Chrysler）的首席執(zhí)行官馬爾喬內(nèi)也已意識到，競爭性成本結(jié)構(gòu)的門檻已經(jīng)被抬得越來越高。對于2009年收購克萊斯勒公司（Chrysler）的原因，他的解釋是，汽車廠商的年產(chǎn)量至少得達(dá)到600萬輛才能確保成功。而最近，他再次提高了成功的門檻?，F(xiàn)在他的說法是，汽車廠商每年的全球銷量要達(dá)到1,000萬輛才能把開發(fā)成本降到理想范圍，實現(xiàn)“效率新水平”。

????要實現(xiàn)馬爾喬內(nèi)的目標(biāo)，菲亞特-克萊斯勒公司就得趕上排在前列、大幅領(lǐng)先的五大巨頭。（見下表。）這五大巨頭目前由通用汽車（General Motors）領(lǐng)銜。作為世界頭號汽車廠商，它一度統(tǒng)治全球市場長達(dá)半個世紀(jì)之久。不過現(xiàn)在，它必須與雷諾-尼桑同臺競技。而擺脫了召回陰影和自然災(zāi)害影響、卷土重來的豐田汽車（Toyota）也是它的強(qiáng)勁對手。緊跟這三大巨頭的是快速崛起的現(xiàn)代集團(tuán)（Hyundai Group）和再次變得雄心勃勃的大眾汽車集團(tuán)（Volkswagen）。

????排在大眾之后的就是福特汽車（Ford），但它與前者的差距達(dá)到了120萬輛。這種差距反映了不同的戰(zhàn)略和各自所處的發(fā)展階段。大眾掌控的是一個品牌集團(tuán)，其品牌從主攻大眾市場的捷達(dá)（Jetta）和帕薩特（Passat），到超小眾的布加迪（Bugatti），無所不包。而福特則砍掉了沃爾沃（Volvo）和捷豹-路虎（Jaguar-Land Rover），專注于核心品牌福特旗下的小轎車和卡車。因此，它目前的規(guī)模縮水是必須付出的代價。

????聲譽(yù)卓著的豪華車廠商梅賽德斯-奔馳（Mercedes-Benz）和寶馬（BMW）雖然規(guī)模相對較?。▽汃R的規(guī)模僅為通用汽車的四分之一），但更高的利潤率彌補(bǔ)了這種不足。而介于這兩個集團(tuán)軍之間的品牌，尤其是標(biāo)致（Peugeot）、本田（Honda）、鈴木（Suzuki）、馬自達(dá)（Mazda）和斯巴魯（Subaru）的母公司富士重工（Fuji Heavy Industries）卻發(fā)現(xiàn)自己必須面對非常不利的成本劣勢。

????They aren't selling like iPads or Hunger Games tickets, but global auto sales are enjoying a nice run. They have grown 18% since 2005 to more than 75 million cars and trucks, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch is expecting the industry to tack on another 3.9% increase this year.

????However, the rewards from those sales are not being shared equally. Increasingly, the profits are going to a handful of mega-companies in North America, Europe, and Asia that are using their size to make best use of the industry's economies of scale. These companies are expected to grow even larger in the years ahead. If they properly apply their brute strength, they may turn the rest of the world's automakers into also-rans.

????The question of size, sales volume, and how best to achieve it is preoccupying the minds of some of the industry's most forward-looking CEOs. Just last week, Renault-Nissan's Carlos Ghosn raised the issue in a speech in conjunction with the New York auto show. Said Ghosn: "Ours is an industry of scale, and the minimum volume necessary to achieve competitive economies of scale keeps going up."

????And up. As one Nissan executive told me, "Ten million units is the new eight million."

????Fiat-Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne also sees the bar for a competitive cost structure rising higher and higher. When he explained his rationale behind the Chrysler takeover in 2009, Marchionne said that automakers needed annual sales of at least six million vehicles in order to be successful. More recently, he has raised the bar of success. He now says that an automaker needs to sell 10 million units per year globally in order to reach "a new level of efficiency" and reduce development costs to where he wants them.

????In order to reach Marchionne's volume target, Fiat-Chrysler will have to catch up to five manufacturers that are extending big leads. (See the table below.) The quintet is led by General Motors (GM, Fortune 500), which reigned as the world's largest automaker for half a century but now must contend with Renault/Nissan and a resurgent Toyota that is shaking off the effects of recalls and natural disasters. Trailing this Big Three are the fast-rising Hyundai Group and a newly ambitious Volkswagen.

????After VW, there is a gap of 1.2 million units until you come to Ford (F, Fortune 500). The difference reflects divergent strategies and stages of development. While VW has been managing a house of brands ranging from mass-market Jettas and Passats to the ultra-exclusive Bugatti, Ford has been jettisoning companies like Volvo and Jaguar-Land Rover in order to focus on its core Ford cars and trucks. As a result, it has paid a penalty in size.

????Prestige luxury makers Mercedes-Benz and BMW can compensate for their smaller volumes -- BMW is one quarter the size of GM -- with richer margins. But those companies caught in the middle -- notably Peugeot, Honda, Suzuki, Mazda, and Fuji Heavy Industries, parent of Subaru -- could find themselves facing a significant cost disadvantage.