????光靠產(chǎn)量不能解決一切。規(guī)模會帶來管理上的復雜性，它可以既是有利條件又是不利因素。通用汽車當初的破產(chǎn)就生動地說明了這一點。成功的關鍵在于有效運用各種資源，以實現(xiàn)規(guī)模經(jīng)濟。擴大規(guī)模可使廠商通過更高的產(chǎn)量攤薄工程技術和產(chǎn)品研發(fā)成本。企業(yè)努力削減汽車生產(chǎn)平臺的數(shù)量時，這種規(guī)模上的優(yōu)勢會帶來顯著的好處。

????大眾汽車和豐田之所以享有優(yōu)勢，是因為它們更懂得如何巧妙地運用自己的規(guī)模去贏得效率。憑借同一套基本零件，大眾能生產(chǎn)300萬輛各型車輛——這個數(shù)字笑傲全球同行。而豐田所擁有的是堪稱全球第二的高產(chǎn)平臺。

????通用汽車也在努力實現(xiàn)類似的規(guī)模經(jīng)濟效益。它已宣布，計劃將自己的汽車生產(chǎn)平臺削減近半，從2010年的30個減少到2018年的14個。通過這一舉措，它預計每年可省下10億美元，其中大部分都是工程技術方面的成本。但是，與大眾相比，通用的舉措簡直是小巫見大巫。大眾正在開發(fā)一個名為MQB的乘用車單一生產(chǎn)平臺，它能用來生產(chǎn)大眾、奧迪（Audi）、斯柯達（Skoda）和西亞特（Seat）這4大品牌的40多種車型。大眾預計，它能將產(chǎn)品開發(fā)和零部件成本削減20%，生產(chǎn)時間縮短30%。

????為了具備更大規(guī)模，汽車廠商正在像服用類固醇的棒球選手一樣讓自己的體型不斷膨脹。雷諾-尼桑公司正擴大與戴姆勒的合作，在其位于田納西州的動力系統(tǒng)工廠中為梅賽德斯-奔馳生產(chǎn)引擎。而德國歐寶（Opel）則與法國標致聯(lián)手開發(fā)共用生產(chǎn)平臺。與此同時，馬爾喬內(nèi)正在一邊虎視眈眈。業(yè)界普遍猜測，他正為菲亞特-克萊斯勒公司物色第三家、甚至是第四家合作伙伴。

????這種拉郎配式的強強聯(lián)合對于有些公司來說實在是勉為其難。比如福特家族的擁有者就不愿意放棄對福特的控制權，而本田則在理念上就顯得特立獨行，不愿趕這個時髦，寧肯埋頭走自己的路。豐田也想自己有機成長，不過通過自己的豪華品牌雷克薩斯（Lexus）和子品牌普銳斯（Prius）的出色表現(xiàn)，它已成功地實現(xiàn)了擴張。

????上述舉措和其他動作的影響已反映在美國環(huán)球透視公司（IHS）的“2020年汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)預測報告”中（見下表）。雖然這些公司的排名順序有所變化，但五大巨頭始終穩(wěn)居前列，并且其領導地位已大幅超過那些跑龍?zhí)椎钠髽I(yè)。據(jù)IHS稱，大眾將無法實現(xiàn)1,000萬輛的產(chǎn)能目標，但它對福特的領先優(yōu)勢將從130萬輛擴大為170萬輛。而豐田對本田的領先優(yōu)勢將從2011年的380萬輛擴大到440萬輛。

????對規(guī)模的追逐會不可避免地導致行業(yè)的集中度繼續(xù)提高。30多年來，專家們一直預測說，汽車廠商的數(shù)量將減少到分布在三大洲的六家主要企業(yè)。這一情景還未成為現(xiàn)實是因為各國政府不讓國有車企垮臺，實際上它們在經(jīng)濟規(guī)律的作用下本來應該早就已經(jīng)消失了。但是法國和意大利真的需要多達三家的獨立汽車企業(yè)嗎？最近兩國出現(xiàn)了一系列的異動，加上21世紀的財政狀況形勢嚴峻，一切都表明清算的日子可能已為期不遠了。

????Volume alone is no solution. Size creates complexity, which can be a handicap as well as a help, as GM's bankruptcy vividly demonstrated. The key to success is to deploy resources effectively in order to realize economies of scale. More scale enables manufacturers to spread the costs of engineering and product development over larger volumes. It pays particular dividends as companies strain to reduce the number of platforms that underpin their vehicles.

????VW and Toyota have the advantage here because they are cleverer about using their size as a lever to get efficiencies. With a single set of basic components, VW is able to build three million cars -- more than any company in the world, while Toyota owns the second most prolific platform.

????GM is striving for similar economies. It has announced that it plans to almost halve its vehicle platforms from 30 in 2010 to 14 in 2018. By so doing, it expects to save $1 billion annually, mostly in engineering costs. But its efforts look miniscule compared to VW, which is developing a single passenger car platform called MQB that will underpin more than 40 models from four brands: VW, Audi, Skoda, and Seat. VW expects to cut its costs for product development and parts by 20% and its production time by 30%.

????In order to get bigger, automakers are bulking up like so many steroid-era baseball players. Renault-Nissan is broadening its partnership with Daimler by building engines for Mercedes-Benz at its powertrain plant in Tennessee, while Germany's Opel has linked up with France's Peugeot to develop common platforms. Meanwhile Sergio Marchionne watches enviously from the sidelines. He is widely speculated to be hunting for a third -- or even fourth -- partner for Fiat Chrysler.

????Such shotgun marriages will be difficult for companies like Ford, whose family owners are unwilling to give up control of their company, and Honda, which seems to be philosophically unwilling to do anything but chart its own course. Toyota also wants to grow organically, but it has had more success expanding with its Lexus luxury vehicles and Prius sub-brand.

????The impact of these moves and others is reflected in the IHS forecast for 2020, also in the chart below. Although the order has changed, the five mega-companies remain at the head of the pack, and their lead has lengthened over the also-rans. VW will not have reached its goal of ten million units according to IHS, but its lead over Ford is expected to grow from 1.3 million units to 1.7 million units. And Toyota, which led Honda by 3.8 million units in 2011, is forecast to stretch its advantage to 4.4 million units.

????The drive for size will inevitably lead to additional consolidation of the industry. For 30 years or more, experts have been predicting that the number of automakers would shrink to six major players on three continents. That hasn't happened because governments have kept national companies afloat when economic logic would have dictated otherwise. But do France and Italy really need three independent car companies between them? The recent flurry of activity -- and the hard fiscal realities of the 21st century -- suggests that the day of reckoning may be at hand.