漢堡王:船大難掉頭
????麥當(dāng)勞(McDonald's)的高達(dá)1,000億美元的總市值并不是天上掉下來(lái)的。除了本世紀(jì)最初幾年,麥當(dāng)勞的高管們一直盡職地?fù)?dān)當(dāng)著管家的角色,替股東們妥善地管理著他們的資本。而與他們相比,漢堡王(Burger King)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層在這方面的表現(xiàn)則相去甚遠(yuǎn)。雖然公司近期取得了些許的發(fā)展,但這對(duì)于提高公司信譽(yù)也無(wú)濟(jì)于事。 ????漢堡王這塊招牌一直被許多企業(yè)作為斂財(cái)?shù)墓ぞ撸热?989年至2002年,公司的東家有皮爾斯伯里公司(Pillsbury)、大都會(huì)公司(Grand Met)和迪阿吉奧公司(Diageo)。2002年至2006年期間,美國(guó)德太投資有限公司(TPG Capital)等私募股權(quán)公司也開始插手漢堡王,希望從中分一杯羹。2006年至2010年,私募股權(quán)公司希望能在漢堡王上市時(shí)從中套現(xiàn)。結(jié)果,由于這家快餐連鎖公司缺乏最基本的發(fā)展動(dòng)力,最終公司易手,3G資本公司(3G Capital)成為新東家。 ????如今,3G資本計(jì)劃將漢堡王在紐約證交所重新上市。經(jīng)過(guò)一系列復(fù)雜交易后,目前3G資本擁有漢堡王71%的股份,剩余股份則由投資公司Justice Holdings持有。Justice Holdings公司是投資家比爾?阿克曼及其對(duì)沖基金潘興廣場(chǎng)資產(chǎn)管理公司(Pershing Square Capital)旗下的一家專項(xiàng)收購(gòu)公司。 ????筆者認(rèn)為,過(guò)去幾年,公司歷任東家,包括現(xiàn)在的3G資本在內(nèi),為了給母公司股東帶來(lái)快速的回報(bào),不惜透支公司的資本品牌。漢堡王面臨的問(wèn)題是實(shí)實(shí)在在的,以至于其整個(gè)業(yè)務(wù)鏈顯得“太大而無(wú)法修復(fù)”,至少這些問(wèn)題在短期內(nèi)難以解決。據(jù)筆者計(jì)算,之前獲得漢堡王所有權(quán)的兩家私募股權(quán)公司,從漢堡王套取了至少10億美元。而這筆錢本原本可以用來(lái)改善公司和對(duì)手的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)形勢(shì)。如今,漢堡王已經(jīng)很難跟上競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的步伐。 ????麥當(dāng)勞是漢堡王最不想面對(duì)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。2002年至2011年期間,麥當(dāng)勞僅美國(guó)業(yè)務(wù)的資本支出便在50至60億美元之間。雖然麥當(dāng)勞的運(yùn)營(yíng)系統(tǒng)仍在不斷改良,而且確實(shí)有許多店鋪需要改建,但與漢堡王不同,麥當(dāng)勞已經(jīng)制定了可行的方案,而且,其運(yùn)營(yíng)體系向來(lái)不缺少資金支持。 ????然而,盡管漢堡王一直受到各種問(wèn)題的困擾,接管公司剛剛18個(gè)月的3G資本仍然聲稱,漢堡王已經(jīng)東山再起。要知道,3G資本并未投入任何資金用于改善漢堡王的經(jīng)營(yíng),問(wèn)題怎么可能得到解決呢? ????讀者朋友們不妨自問(wèn)一下,如果有意忽略,有多少問(wèn)題最終自行得到了解決?肯定不會(huì)太多。而3G資本公司不僅未在漢堡王投入任何資金,去年,它反而從公司卷走了2.95億美元。另外,從公司的基本表現(xiàn)來(lái)看,所謂公司東山再起的證據(jù),是指同店銷售連續(xù)四個(gè)月出現(xiàn)正向增長(zhǎng),而實(shí)際上,當(dāng)時(shí)恰逢餐飲業(yè)最火爆的時(shí)節(jié)。但是在此之前,公司的銷售額已經(jīng)連續(xù)三年呈負(fù)增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)。 ????餐飲業(yè)快速服務(wù)類產(chǎn)品所面臨的競(jìng)爭(zhēng),其激烈程度絕對(duì)超過(guò)其他大部分行業(yè)。因?yàn)橄M(fèi)者的口味在不斷變化,而進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)的門檻卻又很低。過(guò)去十年,快餐業(yè)經(jīng)歷的巨大變革充分說(shuō)明了這一點(diǎn)。在消費(fèi)者體驗(yàn)方面,各個(gè)階段的要求大幅提高。為了搶占市場(chǎng)份額,許多公司都進(jìn)行了必要的投資,比如墨西哥Chipotle餐廳的“流水線式”訂餐服務(wù),星巴克(Starbucks)的“視覺與感官”策略,以及達(dá)美樂(Domino)的在線訂餐體驗(yàn)等。 |
????McDonald's has a market capitalization of $100 billion for a reason. With the exception of a few years in the early 2000's, McDonald's executives have been very good stewards of their shareholders' capital. Sadly, the same cannot be said for Burger King's leadership over the past 10 years and the latest developments will do little, in our view, to enhance the company's reputation. ????The Burger King brand has been a cash cow that has lined the coffers of several different firms such as Pillsbury, Grand Met, and Diageo from 1989 through 2002. Private equity firm TPG Capital and others got in on the act from 2002 through 2006. From 2006 through 2010, PE firms tried to cash out while the company was public but, ultimately, the chain failed to gain fundamental momentum and 3G Capital took it over. ????Now, 3G plans to list Burger King on the New York Stock Exchange, in a complex deal that will result in the private equity firm owning 71% of Burger King with the rest owned by Justice Holdings, a special purpose acquisition company owned in part by financier Bill Ackman and his hedge fund, Pershing Square Capital. ????Our view is that the overriding motivation of several owners throughout the years, and now 3G Capital, has been to starve the brand of capital in order to pay parent shareholders nice and quickly. Burger King's issues may be so substantial that the chain may be "too big to fix", at least in the near term. By our reckoning, the last two private equity firms that have taken ownership of the company have deprived it of $1 billion or more in capital that could have been used to improve the company's relative standing versus its competitors, many of whom Burger King now struggles to keep up with. ????The least favorable comparison for Burger King is McDonald's. Between 2002 and 2011, McDonald's (MCD) has spent between $5 billion and $6 billion in capital expenditures on its U.S. business alone. While McDonald's system is still in the process of being upgraded and does include some stores in need of remodeling, a plan is in place and the system has not been starved of capital as Burger King's has. ????However, despite the continuous issues that have dogged the chain, its owners of 18 months have claimed that Burger King is back. Somehow, having invested no capital into fixing the business, its problems have been resolved. ????Ask yourself how many of your own problems you've solved by ignoring them. Not many. Not only has 3G Capital not invested any capital in the company, it sucked $295 million out of the business last year. The evidence for the company being back, in terms of its fundamental performance, is four months of positive same-store sales during the most favorable weather the restaurant industry has seen in years. Before this recent period, comps were negative for three years. ????There are very few industries that are more competitive than the quick service segment of the restaurant industry. Consumer tastes are constantly changing and barriers to entry are low. The dramatic changes that have taken place within the industry over the past ten years underscore that point. The bar has been risen in terms of the consumer experience at every stage of the process; Chipotle's (CMG) "assembly-line" ordering, Starbucks' (SBUX) look and feel, and Domino's online ordering experience are three examples of companies making the necessary investment to capture share. |