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美國大銀行貸款下降加深經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇擔(dān)憂

美國大銀行貸款下降加深經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇擔(dān)憂

Stephen Gandel 2012-05-04
今年一季度,美國大銀行的信用卡貸款和房屋凈值貸款雙雙下降,為美國經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇可能夭折的判斷提供了新的證據(jù)。

????美國經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇或?qū)⒇舱鄢霈F(xiàn)了新的跡象:去年大部分時間都保持增長的美國大銀行貸款在2012年前3個月出現(xiàn)了下降。

????貸款下降的同時,大銀行開始面臨監(jiān)管部門及債券評級機構(gòu)更加嚴(yán)格的審查,同時,越來越多的跡象表明,美國經(jīng)濟正在再次走軟。上周,美國政府公布,美國一季度GDP僅增長了2.2%,低于分析人士之前的預(yù)期。周一,高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席美國經(jīng)濟學(xué)家簡?哈祖斯預(yù)計4月份美國僅增加了就業(yè)人數(shù)12.5萬。這個數(shù)字大大低于短短兩個月前的24萬。

????貸款下降是美國經(jīng)濟令人擔(dān)憂的另一個跡象。銀行縮減貸款將使中小企業(yè)更難獲得資金進(jìn)行業(yè)務(wù)擴張。另一方面,貸款下降也說明貸款需求減少,說明企業(yè)和個人因為擔(dān)憂當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟狀況而不愿貸款。

????摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)、富國銀行(Wells Fargo)、美國銀行(Bank of America)和花旗集團(Citigroup)今年前3個月貸款總額縮減了240億美元,與去年全年美國四大銀行貸款增加340億美元的情況大相徑庭。下降幅度最大的是消費貸款,其中信用卡貸款下降了近6%,住房凈值貸款下降了2%多一點。按揭貸款略增,但很多是因為人們用更低利率貸款對貸款進(jìn)行再融資,而不是實際的新增貸款。

????更重要的是,大型銀行貸款下降正值銀行業(yè)貸款總體呈現(xiàn)增長之時。這是另一個證據(jù),表明美國大型銀行尚未完全從金融危機中恢復(fù)元氣。周一,美國聯(lián)邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve, Fed)稱,一季度銀行業(yè)總體上放寬了貸款標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。美聯(lián)儲的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,美國一季度銀行貸款總額增加了約950億美元。

????貸款下降最多的是美國銀行。過去兩年,美國銀行的貸款余額縮減了780億美元。去年,該行退出了由外部按揭經(jīng)紀(jì)人出售的融資貸款業(yè)務(wù)。目前僅提供由銀行雇員辦理出售的住房貸款,結(jié)果大幅壓縮了該行的住房貸款業(yè)務(wù)。

????“美國銀行受按揭貸款業(yè)務(wù)沖擊很嚴(yán)重,”羅奇代爾證券公司(Rochdale Securities)跟蹤銀行股的迪克?波維稱?!昂芏嚆y行仍處于保護(hù)模式?!?/p>

????譯者:早稻米

????Here's another sign that the economic recovery may be fizzling: Big bank lending, which had risen for most of last year, dropped in the first three months of 2012.

????The loan drop comes as big banks face new scrutiny from regulators and bond rating firms, and when there are growing signs that the economy is weakening, again. Last week, the government said that GDP grew just 2.2% in the first quarter, which was less than analysts had predicted. On Monday, Goldman Sachs' top U.S. economist Jan Hatzius predicted that the economy only added 125,000 jobs in April. That would be down from 240,000 jobs just two months ago.

????A drop in lending is another worrying sign for the economy. When banks cut their lending, it makes it harder for small businesses to get money to expand. But a drop in lending could also signal a drop in demand for loans, meaning businesses and individual don't want to borrow because they are worried about the economy.

????JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) cut their lending by a collective $24 billion in the first three months of the year. That was a change from last year when lending rose $34 billion at the nation's four biggest banks in all of 2012. The biggest drops were in consumer lending, where credit card loans fell nearly 6% and home equity lines of credit dropped just over 2%. Mortgage lending was up slightly, but much of those home loans were the result of people refinancing to lower rates, and not actual new loans.

????What's more, the drop at the big banks comes at a time when lending at banks in general appears to be growing. That's an other sign that the nation's biggest banks still haven't fully healed from the financial crisis. On Monday, the Federal Reserve said that banks in general had eased their lending standards in the first quarter. According to Fed data, the overall volume of bank loans in the U.S. rose by about $95 billion in the first quarter.

????The biggest drop in loans came at Bank of America. Loans outstanding at B of A have dropped $78 billion in the past two years. Last year, the bank got out of the business of the business of funding loans sold by outside mortgage brokers. The firm now only makes home loans that are sold by a bank employee. That has cut the bank's home lending activities dramatically.

????"Bank of America got hurt pretty badly by its mortgage business," says analyst Dick Bove, who follows bank stocks for Rochdale Securities. "Banks are still in protection mode."

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