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為什么華爾街不喜歡奧朗德

為什么華爾街不喜歡奧朗德

Cyrus Sanati 2012-05-07
法國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選結(jié)果揭曉,左翼社會(huì)黨候選人奧朗德戰(zhàn)勝現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)、人民運(yùn)動(dòng)聯(lián)盟候選人薩科奇,登上總統(tǒng)寶座。對(duì)于華爾街的金融高管們來(lái)說(shuō),這可不是他們期待的結(jié)果。那么,為什么華爾街不喜歡奧朗德呢?

????法國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選著實(shí)讓華爾街和國(guó)際市場(chǎng)坐立不安,這種擔(dān)心并不是沒(méi)有道理的。決定社會(huì)黨領(lǐng)袖弗朗索瓦?奧朗德能否登上法國(guó)頭把交椅的第二輪投票于本周日舉行,這一選舉也為國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)了一絲緊張氣氛,然而眼下,國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)急需一位意志堅(jiān)定的領(lǐng)袖。

????但是除了緊張氣氛之外,市場(chǎng)對(duì)于即將進(jìn)駐愛(ài)麗舍宮的新一屆社會(huì)黨政府感到擔(dān)憂(yōu),我們有充分的理由表明這種擔(dān)憂(yōu)并不是多余的。如果奧朗德當(dāng)選,他必然將在法國(guó)和歐洲大陸推行更為嚴(yán)格的金融法規(guī),而且與前任不同的是,他很有可能會(huì)貫徹到底。這一點(diǎn)將會(huì)對(duì)華爾街和倫敦金融城造成影響,最終限制它們?cè)跉W洲大陸、甚至有可能在本國(guó)的業(yè)務(wù)模式。而且如果推行力度過(guò)大,這些法規(guī)可能會(huì)擾亂法國(guó)與歐洲央行(the European Central Bank)之間精心策劃的有關(guān)防止歐元崩潰的協(xié)議,從而引發(fā)一系列連鎖反應(yīng),在世界范圍內(nèi)導(dǎo)致嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果。

????上周三法國(guó)現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)尼古拉斯?薩科齊和他的挑戰(zhàn)者弗朗索瓦?奧朗德之間進(jìn)行了一場(chǎng)萬(wàn)眾矚目的電視辯論,結(jié)果比預(yù)計(jì)的更為不堪。辯論持續(xù)了長(zhǎng)達(dá)三個(gè)多小時(shí),兩位候選人你來(lái)我往,談?wù)摿朔椒矫婷娴膯?wèn)題,從核政策一直談到誰(shuí)對(duì)伊斯蘭的態(tài)度最為強(qiáng)硬,其間不乏相互之間的謾罵和羞辱。盡管兩人在辯論中并沒(méi)有提出什么驚天動(dòng)地的觀點(diǎn),但是辯論的確鞏固了奧朗德的領(lǐng)先優(yōu)勢(shì)。

????目前,法國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)局勢(shì)一片混亂,也難怪選民們希望更換領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。盡管在意識(shí)形態(tài)上存在差異,但由于金融危機(jī)不斷深化,全歐的選民和國(guó)會(huì)都不約而同地將現(xiàn)任政府趕下了臺(tái)。德國(guó)是唯一一個(gè)特例,但僅僅是因?yàn)榇筮x按計(jì)劃要等到明年才開(kāi)始。包括西班牙、愛(ài)爾蘭、意大利、英國(guó)、葡萄牙、希臘還有最近的荷蘭在內(nèi),多國(guó)政府都在過(guò)去一兩年之內(nèi)相繼倒臺(tái)。

????在歐元區(qū),領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層的變動(dòng)基本上一向被市場(chǎng)視為利好消息——因?yàn)樾碌念I(lǐng)導(dǎo)層往往力求變革,以幫助解決看似無(wú)休無(wú)止的歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)。因此法國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層的變動(dòng)也會(huì)帶來(lái)同樣的效果,是嗎?

????答案是否定的。奧朗德曾經(jīng)說(shuō)過(guò),一旦掌權(quán),他將徹底改革,而且不會(huì)追隨德國(guó)或者其他國(guó)家的腳步。這也就意味著一切都可能成為改革目標(biāo),包括薩科齊與歐盟成員為應(yīng)對(duì)主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)精心策劃的協(xié)議。他對(duì)華爾街和倫敦并不感興趣,甚至曾公開(kāi)批評(píng)它們是導(dǎo)致金融危機(jī)的元兇。奧朗德1月份曾經(jīng)聲稱(chēng):“我的敵人不是其他競(jìng)選人,它并不是人,也沒(méi)有面孔,它就是金融界?!焙苊黠@,他手中揮舞著板斧,說(shuō)不定他已經(jīng)擁有了斬?cái)嘧约弘p手的覺(jué)悟。

????France's presidential election has Wall Street and the global markets worried – and for good reason. The election of Socialist party leader Francois Hollande to France's top job this coming Sunday would introduce an air of instability into the global economy at a time when it desperately needs a steady hand.

????But beyond the instability, there are concrete reasons why the markets should be concerned with a new Socialist-led government in the Elysee Palace. If elected, Hollande will inevitably push for tougher financial regulation in France and on the continent, and unlike his predecessor, will most likely see them through. This will invariably impact and eventually restrict the way Wall Street and the City of London does business, both on the continent and, quite possibly, at home. And if he pushes hard enough, he could disturb the carefully crafted agreement with the European Central Bank that is keeping the euro on life support, setting off a chain of events that could have dire worldwide economic consequences.

????Wednesday's much hyped television debate between incumbent President Nicholas Sarkozy and his challenger, Francois Hollande, was nastier than expected. The candidates barked insults and spoke over one another for over three hours on everything from nuclear policy to who would be the toughest on Islam. While the debate did not provide any earth-shattering revelations from either man, it did solidify Hollande's commanding lead over Sarkozy.

????It is no surprise French voters would be looking for a change in leadership given all the economic turmoil in the country. Voters and parliaments across Europe have pushed incumbent governments out of power, regardless of ideology, as the financial crisis has deepened. Germany is the only exception, but only because its elections are scheduled next year. Governments in Spain, Ireland, Italy, the UK, Portugal, Greece and most recently, the Netherlands, have all fallen in the last year or two.

????In the eurozone, the changes in leadership have been viewed as mostly positive by the markets -- they have brought with them the tough changes needed to help stabilize the seemingly endless European sovereign debt crisis. A change in leadership in France should therefore be viewed the same way, right?

????No. Hollande has said that he would shake things up once he gets in power and would not toe the line with Germany or anyone else. That means anything is on the table, including agreements Sarkozy had carefully worked out with his European counterparts in taming the sovereign debt crisis. In addition, Hollande seems bent on really sticking it to the banks. He is no fan of the City of London and Wall Street and has openly criticized them for the role they played in the financial crisis. "My enemy is not another candidate, it is not a person, it has no face, it is the world of finance," Mr. Hollande said in January. He clearly has an axe to grind, but he may be getting ready to slice off his own hands.

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