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為什么華爾街不喜歡奧朗德

為什么華爾街不喜歡奧朗德

Cyrus Sanati 2012-05-07
法國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選結(jié)果揭曉,左翼社會(huì)黨候選人奧朗德戰(zhàn)勝現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)、人民運(yùn)動(dòng)聯(lián)盟候選人薩科奇,登上總統(tǒng)寶座。對(duì)于華爾街的金融高管們來說,這可不是他們期待的結(jié)果。那么,為什么華爾街不喜歡奧朗德呢?

????在他攻擊敵人之前,奧朗德有必要在社會(huì)政策方面做出一些政績(jī),這樣可能會(huì)在其他的歐元區(qū)引發(fā)波動(dòng)效應(yīng)。他表示會(huì)提高最低薪資標(biāo)準(zhǔn),取消原定計(jì)劃內(nèi)的支出削減,重新雇用數(shù)萬(wàn)名政府職員,并將退休年齡由62歲調(diào)回60歲。他還希望增加政府預(yù)算來資助大型基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目——所有這些都是為了刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。

????為了給這些政策買單,奧朗德打算在法國(guó)玩命征稅。年收入超過100萬(wàn)歐元的人群所得稅稅率將由45%上升至驚人的75%。隨后他將目標(biāo)瞄準(zhǔn)了銀行,將其稅賦提高15%。此外,他希望推行金融交易稅,它將使法國(guó)已然疲軟的金融領(lǐng)域雪上加霜。金融交易稅將沖擊頻率較高的貿(mào)易,對(duì)于一些在法國(guó)運(yùn)營(yíng)的對(duì)沖基金和銀行來說,這一主要利潤(rùn)來源將就此消失。該稅也將降低法國(guó)經(jīng)紀(jì)及中介公司的交易競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。

????為了避免金融公司大規(guī)模出逃,奧朗德很有可能會(huì)游說在全歐范圍內(nèi)推行這一稅收政策。盡管英國(guó)在過去曾經(jīng)成功地扼殺了征收交易稅的企圖,但是奧朗德不會(huì)像其前任那樣輕易放棄。法國(guó)可以通過其他一系列政治問題來迫使英國(guó)就范。鑒于奧巴馬政府認(rèn)為大西洋兩岸的金融法規(guī)和限制應(yīng)保持一致,因此華爾街將對(duì)此保持密切關(guān)注。真正令人擔(dān)心的是,法國(guó)的金融交易稅有可能最終在全世界范圍內(nèi)得以推行。

????社會(huì)黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的法國(guó)也有可能影響新國(guó)際銀行業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的實(shí)施,即眾所周知的巴塞爾協(xié)議Ⅲ(Basel III)。在布魯塞爾,歐洲財(cái)政大臣們目前正在討論如何聯(lián)合實(shí)施新的法規(guī),并藉此迫使銀行在其負(fù)債表中保留更多的資金。奧朗德所領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的法國(guó)很有可能推高利率,危及歐洲銀行的借貸能力。歐洲各國(guó)在巴塞爾協(xié)議Ⅲ框架下所制定的每一個(gè)協(xié)議都將對(duì)最終成為國(guó)際標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的利率產(chǎn)生巨大的影響。華爾街一向偏愛低利率,這樣銀行就能握有更多的現(xiàn)金用于投資。高利率將進(jìn)一步制約銀行的借貸業(yè)務(wù)——這不僅不利于銀行,也不利于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。

????奧朗德的金融戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)可能只會(huì)帶來更為嚴(yán)格的法規(guī)或高利率,但真正令人擔(dān)心的是他可能不會(huì)就此收手。目前維系歐元完整靠的是歐洲央行的廉價(jià)資金,但他卻在周三的辯論當(dāng)中對(duì)此表達(dá)了不滿。他諷刺說:“銀行以1%的利率從歐洲央行拿貸款,然后以6%的利率放貸。我強(qiáng)烈反對(duì)?!?/p>

????很多關(guān)注這場(chǎng)辯論的人可能都沒太在意這句無(wú)關(guān)緊要的聲明,但可能已經(jīng)為多個(gè)歐洲國(guó)家敲響了警鐘。因?yàn)闅W洲央行廉價(jià)資金的流通是目前維系歐盟不致全面解體的唯一救命稻草。歐洲央行最終印刷的這些鈔票廉價(jià)地流入了各國(guó)銀行,而銀行得以藉此購(gòu)買主權(quán)債務(wù)。這也使得歐洲邊緣國(guó)家能繼續(xù)運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)下去,從而避免違約以及歐元區(qū)的崩潰。它也使得銀行有能力向企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者發(fā)放更多的貸款,增加他們?cè)诮?jīng)濟(jì)中的支出。銀行所賺取的差價(jià)也有利于銀行來填補(bǔ)負(fù)債表上的巨額漏洞,繼而走出危機(jī)的陰影。

????Before he goes after his enemy, Hollande will need to make good on some socialist policies, which could have spillover effects on the rest of the eurozone. He says he will raise the minimum wage, cancel scheduled spending cuts, hire back thousands of government workers and roll back the retirement age from 62 to 60. He also wants to increase government spending to sponsor large infrastructure projects - all in a bid to spur economic growth.

????To pay for this, Hollande wants to tax France to death. Anyone making more than a million euros a year will see their tax rate go from 45% to a mind-blowing 75%. He'll then stick it to the banks, raising their taxes by 15%. In addition, he wants to implement a financial transaction tax, which could have dire consequences on France's already weak financial sector. The tax would hurt high frequency trading, wiping out a major profit center for some hedge funds and banks that operate in France. It would also hurt the competitiveness of France's broker-dealers in executing transactions.

????To avoid financial firms from leaving in droves, Hollande will most likely push for the tax to be implemented across the European Union. While the UK has successfully blocked attempts to implement a transaction tax in the past, Hollande isn't likely to give up as easily as his predecessors. The French could back the UK into a corner on a number of other political issues to get its way on this one. Wall Street will be watching closely given the Obama administration's view that financial rules and restrictions should be harmonized on both sides of the Atlantic. The fear is that France's financial transaction tax could eventually go worldwide.

????Socialist France could also impact the implementation of new international banking standards, known as Basel III. In Brussels, European finance ministers are currently discussing how they will collectively implement new rules that will eventually force banks to hold more capital on their balance sheet. A France run by Hollande will most likely push for a higher rate, jeopardizing the lending capacity of European banks. Any agreement made on Basel III by the Europeans will have a big influence on the rate that ends up being the international standard. Wall Street is in favor of a low rate so banks can invest more of its cash. A high rate would further restrict bank lending – hurting not only bank profits, but also the U.S. economy.

????Hollande's war on finance could be limited to tougher regulations or higher taxes, but there is a real fear that he could take it too far. During Wednesday's debate he noted his discontent with the one thing that is holding the euro together– cheap funding from the European Central Bank. He scornfully said, "banks get a loan from ECB at 1% and lend at 6%. I refuse."

????This seemingly innocuous statement went largely unnoticed by many watching the debate, but it probably set off alarm bells in several European capitals. That's because this pass through of cheap funding from the ECB is the only thing keeping Europe from totally falling apart. The money the ECB is essentially printing is being lent to banks on the cheap so they can turn around and buy sovereign debt. This allows European countries on the periphery to continue funding themselves, avoiding default and a eurozone meltdown. It also allows the banks to lend more to businesses and consumers in order to increase spending in the economy. The spread the banks earn helps to fill the massive holes in their balance sheet so that they can recover from the crisis.

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