????歐洲央行幾乎花了兩年的時間來克服超級通脹的恐懼，并最終打開了錢袋。如果奧朗德拒絕加入這一與狼共舞的經(jīng)濟交易，最壞的情況就是：意大利、西班牙、希臘甚至德國和法國的銀行倒閉，導(dǎo)致全歐元區(qū)出現(xiàn)高息借貸和致命的主權(quán)違約。歐元可能就此壽終正寢。美國和亞洲購買歐洲金融產(chǎn)品的金融機構(gòu)也會受到沉重的打擊，由此引發(fā)的恐慌將使得2008年的金融危機看起來更像是香榭麗舍大街（Champs-élysées）上的閑庭信步。

????平心而論，出現(xiàn)這種慘烈的結(jié)局沒有考慮一種可能性，也就是奧朗德可能會在某個時候改變策略。奧朗德在法國國會以游說能力強著稱，善于彌合分歧。社會黨政客經(jīng)常在選舉活動中通過大肆譴責(zé)銀行來爭取選票，因此奧朗德對金融系統(tǒng)的仇恨說不定只是他用來博取選民歡心的手段。一旦掌權(quán)，他有可能會有所收斂。而這顯然符合華爾街的愿望。

????譯者：翔

????It took almost two years for the ECB to get over its fear of hyperinflation and finally open the spigots. If Hollande refuses to go along with this economic deal with the devil then a worst-case scenario could play out: Bank failures in Italy, Spain and Greece, and even in Germany and France, leading to high yields and crippling sovereign defaults across the eurozone. The euro would be finished. U.S. and Asian financial firms with European exposure would get hit hard, setting off a panic that would make 2008 look like a pleasant stroll along the Champs-élysées.

????To be fair, this dire scenario precludes the possibility of Hollande, who is known in the French parliament to be a strong consensus builder, from changing tack at some point. Socialist politicians usually ramp up the rhetoric against banks on the campaign trail to pick up votes, so Hollande's hatred of the financial system may just be his way of playing to his base. Once in office, he might actually tone it down. Wall Street certainly hopes he does.