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美國(guó)政府是否應(yīng)該盡快售出通用持股?

美國(guó)政府是否應(yīng)該盡快售出通用持股?

Doron Levin 2012-05-09
2009年通用汽車瀕臨破產(chǎn),靠美國(guó)政府通過(guò)貸款和入股進(jìn)行注資才起死回生。在美國(guó)500強(qiáng)榜單上,通用繼去年從15位躍升到第8后,今年再度提升到第5。但是美國(guó)政府的持股,也讓很多人攻擊通用是一家“國(guó)有公司”。美國(guó)政府是否應(yīng)該盡快從通用脫身?

????對(duì)于美國(guó)政府在通用汽車公司(GM)中所持的28%股份該何去何從,現(xiàn)在出現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重的意見(jiàn)分歧。奧巴馬當(dāng)局要堅(jiān)持持有。而共和黨總統(tǒng)競(jìng)選人米特?羅姆尼則主張,政府應(yīng)該盡快售出這些股份——哪怕因此蒙受損失也在所不惜。

????許多通用汽車內(nèi)部人士似乎與羅姆尼抱有相同看法。一位不愿透露姓名的通用汽車高管表示:“不管是政府汽車公司(Government Motors),還是奧巴馬汽車公司,這些戲稱我們都煩透了?!薄拔覀儺?dāng)然希望美國(guó)政府賣掉這些股份,”他補(bǔ)充道。該公司早已不再愿意發(fā)表任何可能被認(rèn)為是對(duì)政府忘恩負(fù)義的意見(jiàn)。畢竟2009年在它瀕臨破產(chǎn)時(shí),是政府出手相助,通過(guò)總額高達(dá)500億美元貸款和入股的方式進(jìn)行的注資,才讓它起死回生。

????在正式場(chǎng)合,通用汽車的立場(chǎng)是,股東完全可以按照自己的意愿做出選擇。通用汽車公共事務(wù)副總裁斯里姆?賓格爾稱:“這么說(shuō)的好處和壞處在于,股東會(huì)自己挑時(shí)間采取行動(dòng)。政府沒(méi)打算長(zhǎng)期持有這些股份,我們是希望他們能賣掉它們的?!?/p>

????針對(duì)美國(guó)政府出手拯救通用汽車一事,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上的批評(píng)之聲不絕于耳。不少人發(fā)誓用實(shí)際行動(dòng)表示不滿,他們拒絕購(gòu)買通用汽車的各個(gè)子品牌,比如雪佛蘭(Chevrolet)、凱迪拉克(Cadillac)和別克(Buick)。而克萊斯勒集團(tuán)(Chrysler Group LLC)的車也未能幸免,因?yàn)樗步邮苓^(guò)美國(guó)政府的救助。通用汽車的銷售會(huì)因此而受到多大程度的影響尚不清楚。著名汽車網(wǎng)站Edmunds.com的副總裁杰里米?安維爾稱:“我甚至沒(méi)法確定有多少消費(fèi)者真的了解哪些品牌是通用汽車旗下的?!?/p>

????而2010年11月通用上市后,投資者也沒(méi)給它好臉色看。發(fā)行價(jià)33美元的股票在過(guò)去18個(gè)月已跌掉約1/3。美國(guó)政府已經(jīng)賣掉了約一半的股份。但要讓納稅人完全接盤剩余的270億美元股份,股價(jià)就必須達(dá)到平均每股約51美元,這將是目前股價(jià)的一倍還多。如果不賣,奧巴馬當(dāng)局至少最后有可能完全收回投資。而如果賣掉,安維爾稱:“就會(huì)造成虧損?!?/p>

????拉低通用汽車?yán)麧?rùn)和股價(jià)的一個(gè)因素是對(duì)其在歐洲的未來(lái)前景難以確定。第一財(cái)季,該公司凈利潤(rùn)10億美元,同比下降達(dá)69%,歐洲的虧損是主要肇因。通用汽車歐洲公司該季息稅前虧損達(dá)2.56億美元,而一年前同期利潤(rùn)也僅為500萬(wàn)美元。第二個(gè)壓制對(duì)通用汽車股票需求的因素是,市場(chǎng)普遍擔(dān)憂,如果美國(guó)財(cái)政部突然賣掉所持股票,股市將整體下挫,股價(jià)也會(huì)隨之猛跌。

????本周初在密爾肯研究院全球會(huì)議(Milken Institute Global Conference)上,曾任奧巴馬政府汽車業(yè)工作小組負(fù)責(zé)人、因而被稱為“汽車沙皇”的斯蒂夫?瑞特納發(fā)言稱,美國(guó)應(yīng)等到2013或2014年再賣。他表示,一直以來(lái)美國(guó)財(cái)政部的假設(shè)是,它最多能持有通用汽車的股票七年之久。

????顯然,目前的總統(tǒng)大選形勢(shì)非常需要一個(gè)健康的通用汽車公司。副總統(tǒng)拜登已開(kāi)始散播一個(gè)競(jìng)選口號(hào),即“拉登死了,通用活著”(Osama is dead, GM is alive),以此作為奧巴馬任內(nèi)政績(jī)的概括之一。而另一位競(jìng)選者羅姆尼在努力使自己的競(jìng)選主張有別于對(duì)手的同時(shí)也特別強(qiáng)調(diào),底特律汽車業(yè)能再度復(fù)興,他也備感欣慰。

????不過(guò),對(duì)通用汽車和它的股東來(lái)說(shuō),最好的出路是,明智而迅速地解決其在歐洲多年來(lái)的經(jīng)營(yíng)困境。只有基于更理想收入的高股價(jià),才會(huì)讓這些政治紛爭(zhēng)變成遙遠(yuǎn)的回憶。

????譯者:清遠(yuǎn)

????The Obama administration is holding on tightly to its 28% stake in General Motors Co., while Republican contender Mitt Romney advocates that the government should sell its GM shares pronto -- even at a loss.

????Many inside the Detroit-based automaker seem to share Romney's point of view. "We're tired of the Government Motors jokes and we're tired of the Obama Motors jokes," says one GM (GM) executive, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "Of course we wish the U.S. would sell," this person adds. The company has been weary of saying anything that might be interpreted as ingratitude toward a government that arranged and financed its life-saving 2009 bankruptcy to the tune of $50 billion in loans and equity.

????Officially, GM's position is that shareholders are free to do as they wish. "The long and the short of it is that shareholders will do what they want to do in their own time," said Selim Bingol, GM's vice president of public affairs. "The government didn't intend to become a longterm holder, we would expect them to get out of the stock."

????The Internet resounds with criticism of the U.S. government's rescue of GM, as commenters have vowed to show their displeasure by avoiding GM brands like Chevrolet, Cadillac and Buick, as well as those made by Chrysler Group LLC, the other Detroit-based automaker rescued by Washington. To what extent GM sales are hurt isn't clear. Jeremy Anwyl, vice chairman of the Edmunds.com automotive website, said "I'm not even sure how much consumers know that individual brands are made by GM."

????Investors have been hard on GM since its public offering in November 2010. Shares were offered at $33 and have declined in value by about a third over the past 18 months. The U.S. Has already sold roughly half its stake. But to make taxpayers whole on the remaining $27 billion owed to the U.S., the stock would have to be sold at an average of $51 a share, more than double its current price. By not selling, the Obama administration at least preserves the possibility an eventual full repayment. By selling, Anwyl said, "the loss is locked in."

????One factor holding back GM profits and stock price is uncertainty about its future in Europe, where losses contributed to a 69% decline in first-quarter profit to $1 billion. GM Europe lost $256 million in the quarter, before interest and taxes, compared with a scant $5 million profit a year ago. A second factor holding back demand for shares may be the apprehension that a sudden sale by the U.S. Treasury could swamp the market and send share prices plunging.

????Speaking earlier this week at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles, Obama's former "car czar" Steve Rattner said the U.S. ought to wait until 2013 or 2014 to sell. He said the Treasury always assumed that it could hold GM shares for up to seven years.

????Clearly the president's re-election campaign is hanging its hat on a healthy GM -- Vice President Biden has floated a potential campaign slogan of "Osama is dead, GM is alive" -- as one of Obama's key accomplishments in office. And candidate Romney is trying to distinguish his policies from those of his opponent while emphasizing that he, too, is pleased that Detroit is on its feet.

????Yet the best development of all for GM – and its shareholders – will be a clever and speedy resolution of its perennial woes in Europe. Higher share prices on the heels of stronger earnings will make political squabbles seem like a distant memory.

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