成人小说亚洲一区二区三区,亚洲国产精品一区二区三区,国产精品成人精品久久久,久久综合一区二区三区,精品无码av一区二区,国产一级a毛一级a看免费视频,欧洲uv免费在线区一二区,亚洲国产欧美中日韩成人综合视频,国产熟女一区二区三区五月婷小说,亚洲一区波多野结衣在线

立即打開
奧朗德上臺之后,法國何去何從

奧朗德上臺之后,法國何去何從

Katherine Ryder 2012-05-09
法國新任總統(tǒng)弗朗索瓦?奧朗德無疑會令德國總理安吉拉?默克爾感到頭疼。但是就影響力而言,德國在歐洲依然鮮有對手。同時,國內(nèi)緊鑼密鼓的日程會讓奧朗德無暇與默克爾之間發(fā)生不必要的摩擦,奧朗德在競選期間咄咄逼人的架勢最終很可能會軟化。

????為描述德國總理安吉拉?默克爾(Angela Merkel)和法國總統(tǒng)尼古拉斯?薩科齊(Nicolas Sarkozy)在經(jīng)濟危機期間為團結(jié)歐洲所做的努力,媒體曾經(jīng)象征性地將二者聯(lián)姻,戲稱這一對為“默科齊”(Merkozy)?,F(xiàn)在媒體同樣是揉和人名,創(chuàng)造了一個新詞,用來悲觀地描述了默克爾和法國新任社會黨總統(tǒng)弗朗索瓦?奧朗德之間的關(guān)系。這個詞就是“默徳”(Merde)。

????奧朗德將于5月16日正式上任。他將是二戰(zhàn)以來第二位掌握法國大權(quán)的社會黨人士。他的想法既大膽又具有破壞性——例如通過向富人征稅來盤活法國財政,以及通過雇用更多的政府雇員來降低失業(yè)率。為此備感擔憂的人群不僅包括48%支持薩科齊的選民,還包括那些同時反對這兩位候選人,因而拒絕投票的民眾。相比較而言,市場似乎對奧朗德準備在另一領(lǐng)域?qū)嵤┑挠媱澑鼮椴话病此兄Z領(lǐng)導(dǎo)一個“新歐洲”。奧朗德在他的競選活動中聲稱,“歐洲并不是由德國說了算”。他競選主題的一個主要元素就是打著歐洲多個難兄難弟的旗號譴責德國的緊縮政策。他甚至還斷言自己在當選法國總統(tǒng)后的出訪第一站就要去柏林,“重新談判”傾注了“默科齊”大量時間的財政契約。

????為了避免這樣尷尬的會面,默克爾曾幫助薩科齊競選,而且在接下來的幾個月中,她也會忙得焦頭爛額。奧朗德深知自己還有很長一段路要走。但是在這個過程中,他將認識到,無論他如何虛張聲勢,德國仍是大權(quán)在握。德國的經(jīng)濟遠比法國健康,而且默克爾的支持率也很高。雖然目前有人質(zhì)疑她的緊縮計劃,但她迅速地將這一辭令改為“增長契約”。緊縮計劃中的一些靈活性說不定該還真的有利于歐洲經(jīng)濟的健康——因為在西班牙這樣一些國家,經(jīng)濟危機的幕后推手主要是房地產(chǎn)價格而不是國債,而且這些國家迫切需要調(diào)整經(jīng)濟增長點。與此同時,這項歐洲緊縮試驗若想獲得成功,實施某種形式的預(yù)算管制似乎是唯一可行的出路。從政治角度來看,默克爾采取這樣的立場毫不吃力,而奧朗德則比較困難。

????隨著奧朗德開始其在法國國家政府的歷練,他的雙鬢可能會變得比巴拉克?奧巴馬更花白。首先,雖然他承諾法國將于2013年達到歐盟財政緊縮政策3%的赤字目標,并在2017年底達到預(yù)算收支平衡,但他并沒有說明如何實現(xiàn)這一目標。同時,法國國債,即法國政府為了支付開支所借的貸款,預(yù)計將于2013年底達到國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的90%。而奧朗德曾表示2013年將是法國經(jīng)濟回歸強勢增長的年份。然而,尤其鑒于英國和西班牙經(jīng)濟的二次探底,大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟預(yù)測并不像奧朗德描繪的那么美好。

????由于法國與德國一道受困于歐元區(qū),因此,如果奧朗德希望獲得歐洲的主導(dǎo)權(quán)同時保留法國社會模式的精華部分,他的主要目標應(yīng)該是提高法國的競爭力。然而在這一點上,他仍沒有拿出具體的方案。雖然法、德兩國工人的生產(chǎn)力水平不相上下,但是法國的出口市場一直在歐洲墊底。此外,法國慷慨的社會福利也造成了勞動力市場的失調(diào)。工會和國家法律的過度保護使得企業(yè)難以解雇不合格的工人——這也意味著,被開除的工人也能拿到由企業(yè)或國家發(fā)放的豐厚補助,某些情況下還能拿雙份。奧朗德還希望將退休年齡調(diào)回60歲。退休年齡從60歲推遲到62歲是薩科奇結(jié)構(gòu)性改革中唯一有意義的嘗試,因此奧朗德的這一想法似乎遙不可及。

????"Merkozy" is what the press dubbed the symbolic marriage of fortune between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, describing their efforts to hold Europe together through economic crisis. Now a new portmanteau has been coined, mashing the names -- and pessimistically describing the relationship -- between Merkel and France's new socialist president, Francois Hollande, as "Merde."

????On May 16th, when Hollande is inaugurated, he will be only the second socialist to run the country since World War II. His promises are bold and disruptive -- including restoring France's budget by taxing the rich and reducing unemployment by hiring more government workers. This deeply worries the 48% of the French voters who cast a ballot for Sarkozy, or those who protested both candidates by refusing to vote at all. Markets, by contrast, seemed more troubled by Hollande's plans on another front -- his promises to lead a "New Europe." "Germany doesn't decide for all of Europe," Hollande proclaimed on the campaign trail. A major element of his campaign narrative has been to fight against German austerity on behalf of Europe's beleaguered economies. He has even asserted that his first French presidential trip will be to Berlin, to "renegotiate" the fiscal compact that took "Merkozy" so long to pass.

????Merkel, who offered to help Sarkozy campaign to avoid this uncomfortable meeting, will have her hands full over the next few months. Hollande knows he has a lot to prove. But what he's about to learn is that no matter his posturing, Germany still holds much of the power. Germany's economy remains significantly healthier than France's, and Merkel's approval ratings are high. Though her austerity programs are now in question, she's been quick to shift her own rhetoric to a "growth compact." Some flexibility with respect to austerity may actually be healthy for Europe -- certain countries, like Spain, have economic woes driven more by housing prices than national debt, and could desperately used a shift in focus toward growth. At the same time, however, some form of budget discipline appears to be the only sane path forward if the European experiment is to succeed. Politically, that's an easy stand to take for Merkel. It will be harder for Hollande.

????Hollande's hair may yet go whiter than Barack Obama's as he begins to collect experience in France's national government. First, though he promised that France will hit the 3% deficit target in the EU's fiscal compact in 2013 and will achieve a balanced budget by 2017, he hasn't explained how he will do this. Meanwhile, France's public debt, the amount of money borrowed by the French government to pay its bills, is projected to reach 90% of GDP by 2013. This is the year that Hollande says France will return to strong growth. But particularly with the U.K. and Spain in a double-dip recession, most economic forecasts aren't as rosy as Hollande's.

????Locked into the euro alongside Germany, Hollande's main goal, if he wants to lead Europe and preserve the best parts of France's social model, should be to increase French competitiveness. Again, he has yet to lay out a specific plan. Although worker productivity is similar in Germany and France, the French export market is among the weakest in Europe. Further, France's generous welfare state has led to a dysfunctional labor market, where excessive protection by labor unions and state laws make it hard for incompetent workers to be fired -- and mean that even those who are fired wind up getting paid off handsomely by either their company, the state, or in some cases both. Hollande's idea to rollback the retirement age to 60, after Sarkozy pushed it to 62 in one of his only meaningful attempts at structural reform, seems wildly out of touch.

掃描二維碼下載財富APP
亚洲色国产观看在线另类| 一区二区三区动漫成人在线观看| 高潮呻吟久久av无码午夜鲁丝片| 欧美成人刺激A片黑色视频| 亚洲欧美中文日韩V在线观看| 亚洲国产成人精品一区二区三区自拍| 亚洲中文字幕AⅤ无码性色| 色婷婷亚洲六月婷婷中文字幕| 成人精品一区二区三区电影黑人| 国产v亚洲v天堂无码网站| 精品国产一区二区麻豆| 无码午夜人妻一区二区三区不卡视频| 中文字幕亚洲欧美无线码一区| 无码一区+中文字幕| 亚洲精品午夜久久aaa级久久久| 久久无码av一区二区三区电影网| 中文字幕人成乱码在线观看| 伊人久久精品一区二区三区| 亚洲中文字幕无码一区| 亚洲AV无码国产精品麻豆天美| 四虎一区二区成人免费影院网址| 国产成人精品一区二三区熟女| 日本久久久久久久中文人妻| 国内揄拍国内精品少妇国语| 欧美日韩人妻精品系列一区二区三区| 少妇被粗大的猛烈进出VA视频| 国产69囗曝吞精在线视频| 国产AV中文字幕乱码高清| 亚洲精品无码伊人久久| 久久精品亚洲无中文| 久久综合久久久久88| 亚洲AV日韩AV永久无码电影| 中文字幕一区二区无码厨房| 国产熟女高潮一区二区| 久久久WWW成人免费精品| 一级特黄AAA大片在线观看| 午夜性影院在线观看视频播放| 丁香色婷婷国产精品视频| 亚洲AV成人精品一区二区三区| 91啪国产在线播放h| 99久久婷婷国产综合精品电影|