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雷曼危機(jī)或重演?FDIC稱已做好應(yīng)對(duì)

雷曼危機(jī)或重演?FDIC稱已做好應(yīng)對(duì)

Stephen Gandel 2012-05-15
如果再次發(fā)生雷曼兄弟破產(chǎn)這樣的危機(jī)該怎么辦?美國(guó)聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司表示已經(jīng)做好了準(zhǔn)備,其銀行紓困計(jì)劃中包括政府臨時(shí)接管。

????下一個(gè)雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)不會(huì)在一夜之間突然冒出,這個(gè)過程可能會(huì)有幾個(gè)月。問題是這次會(huì)不會(huì)有什么改進(jìn)。

????上周四,美國(guó)聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司(Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.,簡(jiǎn)稱FDIC,是由美國(guó)聯(lián)邦政府創(chuàng)辦、為商業(yè)銀行儲(chǔ)蓄客戶提供保險(xiǎn)的公司——編者注)代理主席馬丁?格倫伯格在芝加哥聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)舉辦的一次會(huì)議上發(fā)表講話,首次公布了如果雷曼危機(jī)重演、政府將采取的應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃。根據(jù)多德-弗蘭克(Dodd-Frank)銀行改革法案,F(xiàn)DIC有責(zé)任接手監(jiān)管部門認(rèn)為瀕臨破產(chǎn)的大銀行。

????格倫伯格表示,F(xiàn)DIC的計(jì)劃是由政府接管瀕危大銀行的母公司,不讓它立即破產(chǎn)。然后,F(xiàn)DIC會(huì)解雇該銀行的高管和董事會(huì),接管其子公司,如分支機(jī)構(gòu)或股票交易業(yè)務(wù),直到FDIC為這家瀕危銀行找到買家。格倫伯格稱,在這個(gè)過程中,F(xiàn)DIC將抹去這家銀行的股票價(jià)值,把該行的一些債券轉(zhuǎn)換成新銀行的股票。其他債券持有人將承擔(dān)一些損失。而政府會(huì)提供融資,讓該行繼續(xù)經(jīng)營(yíng)下去。

????格倫伯格表示,整個(gè)過程可能需要幾個(gè)月,但總的來說,這樣做要比雷曼破產(chǎn)后造成的一片混亂好很多?!斑@一清算策略的目標(biāo)是采取一些能維持金融穩(wěn)定的可行做法,”他說。FDIC與大銀行一直都有定期聯(lián)系,這一計(jì)劃獲得的反映總體積極?!八麄兤毡檎J(rèn)為,我們的計(jì)劃聽起來不錯(cuò),”格倫伯格稱。

????在上周四的會(huì)議上,有人質(zhì)疑這個(gè)計(jì)劃是否行得通。Rochdale Securities的銀行業(yè)分析師理查德?博弗認(rèn)為,這個(gè)計(jì)劃會(huì)讓銀行股的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更高。佛羅里達(dá)大學(xué)(University of Florida)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬克?弗蘭納瑞表示,銀行很精明,會(huì)想出各種辦法來轉(zhuǎn)移所有資產(chǎn),政府掌控不了他們。

????以前也有人質(zhì)疑,F(xiàn)DIC是否能強(qiáng)制要求破產(chǎn)銀行的債券持有人承擔(dān)損失。如果這些債券的持有人是其他銀行,甚至可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致其他銀行破產(chǎn)。斯坦福大學(xué)(Stanford University)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家艾耐特?阿德瑪?shù)弦彩菐椭鶩DIC制定清算計(jì)劃的顧問委員會(huì)成員,他說,政府還需要敲定一個(gè)問題,即決定何時(shí)由FDIC接管一家銀行的具體流程?!坝?jì)劃可以訂得很漂亮,”阿德瑪?shù)媳硎?,“問題是計(jì)劃是否真的能啟動(dòng)。”

????一位與會(huì)者問格倫伯格,F(xiàn)DIC會(huì)不會(huì)考慮在房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)上實(shí)驗(yàn)其破產(chǎn)清算授權(quán)。格倫伯格回應(yīng)稱,對(duì)于2008年底政府接管的大型按揭貸款擔(dān)保公司,F(xiàn)DIC沒有破產(chǎn)清算授權(quán)。

????最近,美國(guó)一些共和黨眾議員呼吁取消多德-弗蘭克法案中給予FDIC破產(chǎn)清算授權(quán)的內(nèi)容。格倫伯格似乎比較樂觀,相信這些做法不會(huì)得逞?!皟牲h普遍認(rèn)為,大到不能倒絕非好事。”格倫伯格表示,“沒有這一點(diǎn)(即破產(chǎn)清算授權(quán)),公眾取向?qū)⒃斐尚袠I(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)更加不均衡。”

????譯者:早稻米

????The next Lehman Brothers may not happen over the course of a weekend. It could take a couple of months. The question is if that would be an improvement.

????On Thursday, Martin Gruenberg, who is the acting chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., speaking at a conference put on by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, laid out for the first time publicly the government's plan to deal with the next Lehman Brothers-like failure. Under the Dodd-Frank bank reform law, the FDIC has the responsibility of wind-downing large banks that regulators think are headed for bankruptcy.

????He said the FDIC's plan is for the government to take over the parent company of a troubled large bank, rather than let it fail immediately. The FDIC would then fire the bank's executives and its board, and run its subsidiaries, like its branches or its stock trading operations, until the FDIC was able to find a buyer for the failed bank. In the process, Gruenberg says, the FDIC would wipe out the value of the bank's stock. Some of the bank's bonds would be converted into stock in the new bank. Other bond holders would take some losses. And the government would provide the financing to let the company continue to run.

????The whole process could take a couple of months, Gruenberg said. But he said it would be a better route for the market in general than what happened after Lehman. "The goal of the resolution strategy is to come up with something that could be used and maintain financial stability," says Gruenberg. Gruenberg says his agency has been in constant contact with the big banks and generally the reaction has been positive to the plan. "Their general response is that our plan make sense."

????At the conference on Thursday, some questioned whether the plan would work. Richard Bove, a bank analyst at Rochdale Securities, said he thought the plan would make bank stocks more risky. Mark Flannery, an economist at the University of Florida, said banks were savvy enough to figure out how to shift all their assets so that the government wouldn't be able to get a hold of them.

????Others in the past have questioned if the FDIC would be able to force bond holders of a failed bank to take losses. If the holders of those bonds are other banks, then that could cause other banks to fail as well. Anat Admati, an economist at Stanford University, who is on the advisory panel that helped the FDIC come up with resolution plan, says the government still has to iron out its process for deciding when the FDIC would take over a bank. "One can do a great job of preparing a plan," says Admati. "The question is whether it would really get triggered."

????One participant asked Gruenberg if the FDIC would consider testing its resolution authority on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Gruenberg responded that the FDIC had no authority over the large mortgage guarantee companies that were taken over by the government in late 2008.

????Republicans in the House of Representatives have recently begun an initiative to repeal the part of the Dodd-Frank law that gives the FDIC resolution authority. Gruenberg seemed optimistic that those efforts wouldn't succeed. "There's fairly broad bi-partisan agreement that too big to fail is not a good thing," says Gruenberg. "Without this, you create an expectation of public support that creates an uneven playing field."

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