????航空業(yè)的崩潰總是會讓普京回想起俄羅斯混亂的90年代。當(dāng)時俄羅斯從一個貨真價實的全球強國一夜衰落成一個由暴徒和無能政客領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的二流國家。2005年，普京把俄羅斯各大飛機制造商合并成一個控股公司，由俄羅斯政府作為控股方。為了讓航空業(yè)再次崛起，俄羅斯政府已經(jīng)為這個行業(yè)注入了數(shù)十億美元的資金，目標(biāo)是要在2025年前銷售出價值2,500億美元的飛機。

????蘇霍伊超級100支線客機于去年4月進入民航領(lǐng)域，它的競爭對手主要是巴西航空工業(yè)公司（Embrarer）和龐巴迪公司（Bombardier）的支線客機。這架飛機是在俄羅斯設(shè)計制造的，但它的許多關(guān)鍵部件卻是由泰雷斯（Thales）、古德里奇（Goodrich）和漢尼韋爾（Honeywell）等外國供應(yīng)商設(shè)計的，相當(dāng)于拿到了一張西方的合格證。蘇霍伊甚至聘請了波音公司作為顧問，雖然波音很可能不會在這款飛機的生產(chǎn)中發(fā)揮多大實際作用。

????盡管這款客機的售價只有3,000萬美元左右，但卻并未吸引買家蜂擁定購，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)確定的訂單只有170架，離俄方希望的1,000架的銷量還差得很遠。這次亞洲六國巡展本來是想為這款支線客機造點聲勢，但結(jié)果顯然適得其反。

????如果蘇霍伊100真的獲得了成功，這當(dāng)然是件好事，但它的地位還是趕不上伊爾庫特公司（Irkut）的MS-21客機。這款飛機于去年秋天推出，預(yù)計將于2017年投入服務(wù)。它瞄準(zhǔn)的是民航業(yè)最有利可圖的單通道中小型客機。目前這個市場主要被波音737和空客320所主宰，不過這兩款飛機的設(shè)計已經(jīng)有幾十年沒有大改過了。從一個例子就能看出這個市場對飛機制造商有多重要：波音737客機為波音創(chuàng)造的營業(yè)收入占到了該公司民航客機總收入的40%，利潤更超過了全公司利潤的一半以上。據(jù)波音公司預(yù)計，單通道客機的產(chǎn)值在未來20年里將達到將近2萬億美元，其中半數(shù)以上的需求來自亞洲。

????美國和西歐的民航市場以及許多國際知名航空公司顯然已經(jīng)是波音和空客的囊中物了，即便這樣，在世界其它地區(qū)，留給俄羅斯的蛋糕仍然很大。首先俄羅斯人瞄準(zhǔn)了自己的國內(nèi)市場，目前俄羅斯國內(nèi)75%的民航客機都是外國制造的。普京已經(jīng)清楚地表示，既然俄羅斯的民航客機已經(jīng)再度投產(chǎn)，那俄羅斯的航空公司就應(yīng)當(dāng)購買國產(chǎn)客機。再加上俄羅斯周邊還有一些前蘇聯(lián)盟國和衛(wèi)星國，因此俄制客機是有現(xiàn)成的市場的。盡管發(fā)生了這起墜機事件，那些客戶還是會購買俄制飛機。

????Putin saw the collapse of the aircraft industry as a reminder of the chaotic 1990s, when Russia slipped from being a true world power to a country run by mobsters and incompetent politicians. In 2005, he merged all of the nation's various aircraft manufacturers into one holding company, with the Russian government as the controlling shareholder. The state would now pump billions into the industry to get it going again. The goal was to sell $250 billion worth of aircraft by 2025.

????The Sukoi 100 entered commercial service in April of last year and competes mostly with regional jet makers like Embrarer and Bombardier. The plane was built and designed in Russia but many of its major parts were designed by foreign suppliers such as Thales, Goodrich (GR) and Honeywell (HON), putting a western seal of approval on the airplane. It even hired Boeing as a consultant, though it most likely was not a big player in the production of the aircraft.

????But despite the jet's competitive price point of around $30 million, buyers have not been forthcoming, with firm commitments secured for only 170 jets. That falls far short of the 1000 jets the Russians had hoped to sell. The Asian tour was supposed to provide a boost to the regional jet's sales, but that has clearly nosedived.

????Yet while the success of the Sukhoi 100 would have been nice, it isn't as important as the launch of Irkut's MS-21. Announced last fall and scheduled to be in service by 2017, the jet would target the lucrative and most profitable part of the airline industry – the single-aisle class. Today, the market is dominated by Boeing's 737 and Airbus' A320, which haven't undergone a radical design change in decades. To get an idea of how important this market is for the jet makers, Boeing's 737 aircraft accounts for around 40% of the jet maker's commercial aviation revenue and well over half of its profits. Boeing estimates that the single-aisle market will be worth nearly $2 trillion over the next 20 years, with over half of that demand coming from Asia.

????Boeing and Airbus clearly have a lock on the U.S. and Western European markets, as well as many established international carriers, but the rest of the world is up for grabs. The Russians are first targeting their own domestic market, where 75% of the aircraft are currently foreign-made. Putin has in no uncertain terms made it clear that Russian airlines should be buying Russian-made jets, now that they are again in production. Along with the former Soviet states and its satellites, the Russian aircraft industry has a built in market. Even with the crash, those customers will be buying Russian.