????不過俄制客機(jī)真正的潛在買家當(dāng)屬那些預(yù)算不大寬裕的航空公司，尤其是亞洲的航空公司。他們一方面增長迅速，另一方面，他們無論對(duì)波音還是空客都沒有很強(qiáng)的品牌忠誠度，因此俄羅斯人很有機(jī)會(huì)在那里打開局面。不過同時(shí)俄國人也要和中國的大飛機(jī)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行競爭，中國商用飛機(jī)公司（COMAC）目前正在生產(chǎn)自己的C919單通道客機(jī)。到目前為止，只有中國的航空公司訂購了該型客機(jī)。首架C919將于四年后——也就是2016年投入使用。隨著中國開始對(duì)一些國家施加影響力，C919應(yīng)該會(huì)逐漸獲得更多客戶。不過由于中國商用飛機(jī)公司主要鎖定巨大的中國市場，因此國際擴(kuò)張對(duì)于它來說并不是特別重要。這家公司或許只需要為幾家中國航空公司生產(chǎn)飛機(jī)就能過得很好。

????因此，波音和空客控制整片藍(lán)天的日子也許不會(huì)太久了。到2020年左右，他們可能會(huì)失去對(duì)中國和獨(dú)聯(lián)體國家單通道客機(jī)市場的控制。盡管俄羅斯的民航客機(jī)項(xiàng)目因?yàn)樯现艿膲嫏C(jī)而遭受了打擊，但它依然能在政府的大力支持下度過難關(guān)。等到MS-21客機(jī)投放市場，才是俄羅斯人與波音和空客攤牌的時(shí)候。如果這款客機(jī)真的如俄羅斯人所說的那樣先進(jìn)和節(jié)能，那么對(duì)于那些根本分不清波音和空客的亞非拉航空公司來說，MS-21也許會(huì)成為一個(gè)可行的替代選擇。

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????譯者：樸成奎

????But the real prize is the budget airlines, especially those based in Asia. These airlines are growing fast and do not have strong brand loyalty to either Boeing or Airbus, so the Russians really have a chance to make their mark here. But the Russians will also have to compete against COMAC, China's upstart aircraft producer, which is building its own single-aisle aircraft, the C919. So far, only Chinese airlines have ordered the prototype, with the first jet set to go into service in 2016, four years from now. It should slowly gain more customers as China starts to use its influence over certain countries to pick up a few aircraft. But international expansion isn't critical for COMAC given its lock over the massive Chinese market. It could probably just produce planes for the various Chinese airlines and do very well.

????So Boeing and Airbus may control the skies now but not for long. They will most likely lose control of the lucrative single-aisle market in the former Soviet states as well as in China by the end of the decade. While the Russian program has taken a hit with last week's crash, strong government support will help it through this rough patch. The real show down will occur when the MS-21 hits the market. If it is as fuel efficient and advanced as the Russians claim, it could be a viable alternative to budget conscious upstart airlines in Asia, Latin America and Africa who don't know their Boeing from their Airbus.