????銀行擠兌通常都會(huì)帶來(lái)金融災(zāi)難。任何一個(gè)負(fù)責(zé)任的政府都會(huì)盡量避免擠兌的出現(xiàn)，但希臘的狀況可能比較特殊。如果每個(gè)人都從希臘銀行往外取錢(qián)，或許反而能夠避免這個(gè)負(fù)債累累的國(guó)家退出歐元區(qū)。

????這個(gè)不同尋常的建議來(lái)自彼得森國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所（Peterson Institute for International Economics）的雅各布?科克加德?？瓶思拥略谏现馨l(fā)布的一份研究報(bào)告中聲稱，如果銀行擠兌加速到來(lái)，或許能給選民們一記當(dāng)頭棒喝，讓他們醒悟過(guò)來(lái)。

????本月的希臘選舉沒(méi)有產(chǎn)生明顯的獲勝者，因此，下個(gè)月希臘將進(jìn)行二次大選。不過(guò)，在本月的選舉中，選民還是表現(xiàn)出了相對(duì)更支持由阿里西斯?齊普拉斯領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的、反對(duì)緊縮措施的左翼聯(lián)盟（Syriza）——很多人認(rèn)為這是一個(gè)令人不安的現(xiàn)象。如果新一屆的希臘政府不認(rèn)可緊縮承諾，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）和歐盟（European Union）可能會(huì)切斷救助貸款的供給——兩年來(lái)正是這些資金在很大程度上幫助希臘得以避免了破產(chǎn)的厄運(yùn)。

????希臘問(wèn)題攪動(dòng)了全球市場(chǎng)，但卻絲毫沒(méi)能影響希臘選民，他們用街頭騷亂來(lái)反對(duì)緊縮措施。他們拒絕承認(rèn)，如果不同意IMF要求的大幅縮減開(kāi)支，希臘將難以為繼。銀行擠兌能起到這種效果嗎？不可否認(rèn)，科克加德的這個(gè)建議應(yīng)謹(jǐn)慎對(duì)待——他本人也同樣這么認(rèn)為。

????但他高呼銀行擠兌應(yīng)盡快到來(lái)，值得關(guān)注，也帶來(lái)一個(gè)更普遍的問(wèn)題：形勢(shì)需要惡化到什么程度才能讓希臘人認(rèn)識(shí)到需要大大縮減開(kāi)支？

????誠(chéng)然，正如《大西洋月刊》（The Atlantic）最近所指，過(guò)去3年，希臘也出現(xiàn)過(guò)銀行擠兌。希臘銀行已損失了25%至30%的存款，很多人將此稱為“銀行存款緩慢流失”（bank jog）而不是銀行擠兌。希臘財(cái)政狀況惡化已導(dǎo)致政治危機(jī)，但它是否會(huì)加劇銀行存款流失尚不得而知。

????如果流失加速，科克加德認(rèn)為，它或許可以成為拯救歐元的秘密武器，因?yàn)檫@會(huì)從根本上讓人喪失對(duì)反緊縮政黨的信任。歐洲央行很可能選擇補(bǔ)上這些損失的存款。希臘銀行體系倒塌，進(jìn)而波及整個(gè)歐洲，甚至世界其他地區(qū)，這絕對(duì)不符合歐洲央行的利益。因此，歐洲央行很可能感到有壓力來(lái)拯救希臘，但希臘必須遵循IMF的緊縮規(guī)劃，廢棄選舉，組建由技術(shù)官員構(gòu)成的政府。

????因此，銀行擠兌或許就是希臘需要的一劑苦口良藥。當(dāng)然，知易行難。正如《Slate》雜志的馬修?伊格雷西指出的那樣，希臘出逃資本沒(méi)有上升的一個(gè)原因或許是直接存款的增加使得傳統(tǒng)的銀行擠兌“邏輯上更難實(shí)現(xiàn)”。

????事實(shí)上，依然存在很多不斷變化的因素。未來(lái)幾個(gè)月，究竟什么因素能讓希臘最終直面堆積如山一般的債務(wù)，我們拭目以待。

????譯者：早稻米

????Bank runs typically spell financial disaster. Any responsible government would try to avoid one, but Greece could turn out to be a special case. If everyone pulled their money out from Greek banks, that might actually save the debt-ridden country from leaving the Euro.

????The advice, albeit unusual, comes from Peterson Institute for International Economics' Jacob Funk Kirkegaard. In a research note released last week, Kirkegaard spells out how a speedier bank run might finally give voters the wake-up call they need.

????Next month, Greece will have a national election after the May election failed to produce a clear winner. However, voters did show relatively strong support for anti-austerity party Syriza led by Alexis Tsipras – what many view as a troubling development. If the new government reneges on Greece's austerity pledges, the IMF and the European Union could cut off the flow of bailout loans – which, for the past two years, have largely kept Greece afloat from bankruptcy.

????Greece's problems have roiled global markets, but it has done little to sway voters who have met austerity measures with street riots. They refuse to see that Greece can't go on without agreeing to deep spending cuts supported by the International Monetary Fund. Might a bank run do the trick? Admittedly, Kirkegaard's suggestion should come with a big warning label – something he even acknowledges.

????But his urging for a bank run is worth attention, to the extent that it leads to a broader question: How bad do things have to get before Greeks realize it needs to spend way less?

????To be sure, there's been a bank run in Greece for the past three years, as The Atlantic recently pointed out. Greek banks have lost between 25% and 30% of their deposits in what many have called a "bank jog" rather than a bank run. Greece's worsening finances have led to a political crisis, and it remains to be seen if that will accelerate withdrawals from banks.

????If the pace sped up, Kirkegaard thinks that might be the secret sauce to save the euro, as it would essentially discredit anti-austerity parties. That's because the ECB would probably be tapped to make up for the lost deposits. It wouldn't be in the interest for the central bank to see a collapse of Greece's banking system and the ripple effects across Europe and possibly the rest of the world. So the ECB would probably feel pressured to rescue Greece but not without getting the country to sign up for the IMF program or perhaps scrap the elections and form a unity of technocratic government.

????So maybe a bank run is the bitter medicine Greece needs. Of course, that may be easier said than done. As Slate's Matthew Yglesias has pointed out, perhaps one reason why it appears more capital isn't fleeing Greece is because the rise of direct deposits has made old-fashion bank runs "a bit more logistically difficult."

????Indeed, there are plenty of moving variables here. And in the coming months, it will be interesting to see what might finally make Greece face its debilitating debt.