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美國(guó)銀行業(yè)利潤(rùn)創(chuàng)近五年新高

美國(guó)銀行業(yè)利潤(rùn)創(chuàng)近五年新高

Stephen Gandel 2012-05-28
美國(guó)銀行業(yè)利潤(rùn)創(chuàng)近五年來(lái)的新高,顯示美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在繼續(xù)從金融危機(jī)中緩慢復(fù)蘇。不過(guò),銀行業(yè)的利潤(rùn)并沒(méi)有恢復(fù)到經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)發(fā)生前的水平。

????金融危機(jī)或許已經(jīng)結(jié)束,但信貸緊縮有沒(méi)有結(jié)束還不明朗。

????上周四,美國(guó)聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司(FDIC)宣布,銀行業(yè)利潤(rùn)創(chuàng)近五年新高。今年前三個(gè)月,美國(guó)銀行業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)利潤(rùn)353億美元,相比上年同期增長(zhǎng)66億美元,幾乎是兩年前同期的翻番。不過(guò),利潤(rùn)仍未回到危機(jī)前水平,比2007年第二季度仍低了14億美元。正是從2007年第二季度左右,次貸市場(chǎng)開(kāi)始崩潰。

????顯然,美國(guó)銀行業(yè)正在繼續(xù)從金融危機(jī)中復(fù)蘇。FDIC指出,存在破產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的銀行數(shù)量已降至772家。這是該數(shù)字連續(xù)第五個(gè)季度下降。FDIC的“問(wèn)題銀行”名單曾一度逼近1,000家。而且,問(wèn)題貸款總量也在下降。FDIC表示,第一季度銀行業(yè)注銷(xiāo)貸款210億美元,為四年來(lái)最低。FDIC衡量銀行資本金的一項(xiàng)關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)——銀行擁有的可以覆蓋不良貸款和其他損失的資金——?jiǎng)t創(chuàng)下了歷史新高。這是一個(gè)好消息,但問(wèn)題也隨之而來(lái):為何它沒(méi)有超過(guò)危機(jī)前的年份,當(dāng)時(shí)我們都相信銀行業(yè)是健康的。

????銀行業(yè)的穩(wěn)定對(duì)于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)顯然是個(gè)利好因素。當(dāng)策略師們歷數(shù)為何他們認(rèn)為美國(guó)股市將上漲的各項(xiàng)因素時(shí),總會(huì)談到這一點(diǎn)。但銀行利潤(rùn)只是諸多非負(fù)面因素之一。銀行業(yè)利潤(rùn)對(duì)你我,對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)如此重要的唯一原因是它會(huì)鼓勵(lì)更多放貸,相應(yīng)地創(chuàng)造更多就業(yè)并推高房?jī)r(jià)。我們還沒(méi)有看到這一點(diǎn),至少?zèng)]有持續(xù)地呈現(xiàn)。幾周前,一季度貸款縮減。FDIC的最新報(bào)告印證了這一點(diǎn)。下降最多的是信用卡貸款和住房貸款。這意味著銀行業(yè)仍是抑制樓市復(fù)蘇的因素之一。我們還沒(méi)有走出困境。

????譯者:早稻米

????The financial crisis could be over, but it's not clear the credit crunch is.

????On Thursday, the FDIC said that bank profits were the highest they have been in nearly five years. U.S. banks earned $35.3 billion in the first three months of the year. That was up $6.6 billion from the same quarter a year ago, and nearly double what they earned two years ago. Still, bottom lines have yet to return to pre-crisis levels. Banks earned $1.4 billion less than they did in the second quarter of 2007, which is about the time the sub-prime mortgage market began to bust.

????What's clear is that banks are continuing to heal from the financial crisis. The number of banks that the FDIC says are in jeopardy of failing dropped to 772. That was the fifth quarter in a row that number has dropped. The FDIC's "problem bank" list once neared 1,000. What's more problem loans at all banks fell as well. The FDIC said banks charged off $21 billion in the first quarter, which the lowest in four years. A key FDIC measure of bank capital - the amount of money banks have to cover bad loans and other losses - reached an all-time high, which is welcome news but also begs the question of why it wasn't higher in the years before the crisis, when we all believed banks were healthy.

????Stability of the banking sector is clearly a positive for the U.S. economy. It's always one of the talking points you hear from strategists when they reel off the reasons they think stocks are headed higher. But bank profits alone are really only one of those things that are not a negative. The only reason banks profits really matter to you and me and the economy is that it should lead to more lending, and in turn more jobs and higher housing prices. We haven't actually seen that yet, at least not consistently. As I wrote a few weeks ago, lending shrunk in the first quarter. The FDIC report confirms that fact. The biggest drops were in credit card lending and home loans. That means banks remain a headwind for the housing market rebound. We're still not out of the woods yet.

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