????就在歐洲疲于應(yīng)對(duì)自身的債務(wù)危機(jī)之際，對(duì)于一場(chǎng)隱約可見的美國(guó)財(cái)政危機(jī)的擔(dān)憂正在不斷發(fā)酵。

????上周，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Federal Reserve）主席伯南克再次警示國(guó)會(huì)關(guān)注所謂的“財(cái)政懸崖”問題，即一系列定于明年1月1日開始實(shí)施的增稅和削減開支措施（這是去年夏天就提高聯(lián)邦債務(wù)上限達(dá)成的協(xié)定的組成部分）。如果國(guó)會(huì)在今年年底之前未能采取行動(dòng)，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和分析師普遍認(rèn)為，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)有可能墜入另一場(chǎng)衰退之中。

????不用說，伯南克并非唯一一個(gè)拉響警報(bào)的人。有報(bào)道稱，美國(guó)的頂級(jí)高管，包括摩根大通（JPMorgan）CEO杰米?戴蒙，貝萊德集團(tuán)（Blackrock）的勞倫斯?芬克和梅西百貨公司（Macy's）的特里?蘭格倫，都已經(jīng)敦促國(guó)會(huì)議員在今年年底之前拿出一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期的赤字削減計(jì)劃。

????但“財(cái)政懸崖”究竟指的是什么？鑒于恐懼情緒和不確定性因素肯定會(huì)影響市場(chǎng)，這是一個(gè)值得一問的問題。雖然另一輪衰退顯然會(huì)對(duì)美國(guó)和世界其他國(guó)家?guī)硗纯啵柏?cái)政懸崖”鷹派的警報(bào)聲是不是拉得太響了點(diǎn)？

????一些人就是這么想的。非黨派智庫(kù)預(yù)算和政策優(yōu)先事項(xiàng)中心（Center on Budget and Policy Priorities）的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家查德?斯通表示，這種擔(dān)憂不恰當(dāng)。他在上周發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告中寫道，當(dāng)明年1月1日來臨的時(shí)候，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)不會(huì)立刻跌落懸崖，墜入另一輪大衰退（Great Recession）之中。決策者不應(yīng)急于談判，最終倉(cāng)促祭出有可能非常糟糕的政策方案，他們依然有時(shí)間（盡管非常有限）制定一項(xiàng)堅(jiān)實(shí)的計(jì)劃，進(jìn)而避免經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入另一輪衰退。

????當(dāng)然，如果議員遲遲不采取有效行動(dòng)，美國(guó)將陷入衰退，斯通并不懷疑這樣的前景。擬定的政策變更包括終止小布什政府期間制定的臨時(shí)減稅政策和奧巴馬政府實(shí)施的工薪稅臨時(shí)削減計(jì)劃。據(jù)國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室（Congressional Budget Office）估算，如果擬定的政策調(diào)整正式生效，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將在2013年上半年萎縮1.3%，將在下半年增長(zhǎng)2.3%。

????這是非?？膳碌那熬?。然而，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)需要經(jīng)過一段時(shí)間才能感受到這些變化的負(fù)面影響。斯通首先以減稅政策終止為例對(duì)這些影響進(jìn)行了說明：誠(chéng)然，美國(guó)家庭或許將感受到周薪或月薪被扣繳稅收增加所帶來的痛楚，“但在2012年剛剛適用于替代性最低稅（Alternative Minimum Tax）的納稅人直到隨后幾個(gè)月進(jìn)行納稅申報(bào)時(shí)才會(huì)實(shí)際支付更高的稅款，”他這樣寫道。

????While Europe deals with its own debt woes, fears about a looming U.S. fiscal crisis are brewing.

????Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sounded another warning to Congress about the so-called "fiscal cliff"— a series of tax hikes and spending cuts set to kick in Jan. 1, as part of a deal struck last summer to raise the federal debt ceiling. If Congress fails to take action before the end of this year, economists and analysts widely think the U.S. economy could slip into another recession.

????Needless to say, Bernanke isn't the only one sounding the alarms. America's top executives, including JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon, Laurence Fink of Blackrock (BLK) and Terry Lundgren of Macy's (M), have reportedly urged lawmakers to come up with a long-term deficit reduction plan before the end of the year.

????But what exactly is a "fiscal cliff?" It's a question worth asking, given that fear and uncertainty certainly move markets. While another recession would obviously be painful for the U.S. and the rest of the world, could the fiscal cliff hawks be blaring their sirens a little too loudly?

????Some think so. Chad Stone, chief economist at the non-partisan Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, says the fears are misplaced. In a paper released last week, he wrote that the economy won't immediately fall over a cliff and plunge into another Great Recession come January 1. Rather than rush negotiations and end up with potentially very bad policy, policymakers still have some (although limited) time to come up with a solid plan and therefore avoid another downturn.

????To be sure, Stone doesn't doubt the U.S. will slip into recession if lawmakers drag their feet for too long. The slated policy changes include an end to the temporary tax cuts enacted during the George W. Bush administration, as well as an end to the temporary Obama administration payroll tax reductions. If the slated changes take effect, the economy could contract by 1.3% during the first half of 2013 and grow by 2.3% during the second half, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

????That's scary stuff. However, it will take some time before the economy feels the weight of those changes. Stone offers a few examples, starting with the tax cuts: It's true that households might feel a pinch from an increase in taxes withheld from their weekly or monthly checks, "but taxpayers newly falling within the reach of the [Alternative Minimum Tax] in 2012 will not actually pay those higher taxes until they file their returns in subsequent months," he writes.