????通過各公司的股價、營收、利潤、雇用情況，甚至剪報等，我們就可以把握硅谷的發(fā)展脈搏?；蛘咧苯涌醇又菖谅灏柾惺蟹康禺a(chǎn)市場的走勢，一樣可以對硅谷的發(fā)展前景有所了解。

????畢竟，這里是馬克?扎克伯格居住的社區(qū)，史蒂夫?喬布斯也曾是這里的居民，而且還有無數(shù)企業(yè)家和他們的金主們都希望能入住這里。當(dāng)初這片住宅區(qū)的房價持續(xù)攀升時，人們都說帕洛阿爾托是硅谷新城！但當(dāng)一棟普通的的雙臥室別墅價格跌到100萬美元左右時，我們可以說，這座城市離房地產(chǎn)泡沫破滅的日子或許已經(jīng)不遠(yuǎn)了。

????然而事實并非如此，因為硅谷的新老公司依然牛氣沖天。但Facebook這家標(biāo)志性公司的種種不足卻讓帕洛阿爾托頗受打擊。5月18日，F(xiàn)acebook首次公開募股之前，我們參觀了這個小鎮(zhèn)橡樹成蔭的街道，當(dāng)時這里的房地產(chǎn)市場陷入了瘋狂，似乎就連街旁樹木的價格都令人瞠目結(jié)舌。這是因為許多房主希望Facebook的首次公開募股能像2004年谷歌公司（Google）一樣，給他們帶來好運。于是，賣家紛紛捂盤惜售。比如在今年第一季度，帕洛阿爾托一棟獨棟房產(chǎn)的中位價格上漲了11%，但庫存量卻下降了57%。

????不過，隨著Facebook首次公開募股的慘敗，帕洛阿爾托的房地產(chǎn)市場也隨之發(fā)生了巨大的變化。Facebook上市當(dāng)日股價最高達(dá)到每股45美元，如今已經(jīng)跌至25.52美元，下跌了43%，比38美元的發(fā)行價下跌了33%。（周二收盤價為每股27.40美元。）而這直接導(dǎo)致帕洛阿爾托大量房地產(chǎn)蜂擁入市。雖然目前只有很少的數(shù)據(jù)，但卻表明賣家心理發(fā)生了巨大的變化。美國多重掛牌服務(wù)系統(tǒng)（Multiple Listing Service）采集的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，目前，該地區(qū)上市交易的房產(chǎn)有104棟，是去年冬季的兩倍以上。即便與去年六月份相比，庫存量也增加了44%。

????而就在帕洛阿爾托附近，F(xiàn)acebook新總部所在的門洛帕克，房地產(chǎn)市場變化的趨勢卻并不明顯。目前，該地區(qū)入市交易的房屋共有103棟，比去年冬季增加了約80%，與去年同期相比增加了約20%。

????帕洛阿爾托一位著名的房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人邁克爾?德雷福斯表示：“Facebook讓賣家明白了一個道理：凡事無絕對，不要太挑剔。有一位房主曾經(jīng)說：‘我知道我的房子值500萬美元，但如果有人出價1,000萬美元，我就接受?！缃?，隨著Facebook的慘敗，這種‘隨行就市’的定價方式已經(jīng)不再適用。”

????德雷福斯稱，如同之前幾輪上漲時一樣，賣家開始意識到，情況會逐漸惡化，而不是好轉(zhuǎn)。他說：“當(dāng)然，我覺得現(xiàn)在還算不上恐慌，只是他們認(rèn)清了現(xiàn)實而已?！?/p>

????他的客戶中有一位四十出頭的風(fēng)險投資家，希望在帕洛阿爾托買進價位在300萬至400萬美元的中端房產(chǎn)。Facebook引發(fā)當(dāng)?shù)胤康禺a(chǎn)市場的狂熱之前，這位投資家曾計劃競購幾套房產(chǎn)，結(jié)果出價低于別的買家。當(dāng)時，賣方的要價只能作為一個參考，成交價往往會高出許多。他期待Facebook的首次公開募股慘淡收場，結(jié)果如愿以償。上周，他給德雷福斯發(fā)郵件，興奮地稱近期將不會有新高科技公司進行首次公開募股。這位投資家在郵件中說道：這兩件事“或許會對我們有利?！?/p>

????如果連一位風(fēng)險投資家都?xì)g呼市場回歸理性時，我們就應(yīng)該非常清楚地意識到，形勢已經(jīng)發(fā)生了變化。

????譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

????You can take the pulse of the prospects of Silicon Valley by checking stock prices, revenues, profits, hiring, even press clippings of various companies. Or instead maybe you should just look at the real estate market in Palo Alto, California.

????After all, this is where Mark Zuckerberg lives, where Steve Jobs used to, and where countless entrepreneurs and their financiers want to move. When the price of that megalo-mansion just keeps going up -- hey, do you think it has a gift shop? -- we all say it'sboomtown in the Valley. But when the value of that modest two-bedroom bungalow actually comes down near a meager $1 million, we say the end of the bubble may be nigh.

????Not quite so, as many companies in the Valley, new and old, continue to soar. But the shortcomings of one iconic company, Facebook (FB), now seem to be taking their toll in Palo Alto. Before Facebook's May 18 IPO, when we last paid a visit to the town's oak-lined streets -- where even the trees have fabulous price values associated with them -- the housing market was going especially bonkers.

????That's because so many sellers, expecting a bountiful IPO along the lines of the Google (GOOG) bonanza in 2004, kept their homes off the market. For the first quarter of this year, for example, the median price of a single-family Palo Alto home went up 11%, while inventory declined 57%.

????All that changed when the Facebook IPO flopped. Since the stock peaked at $45 on the day it opened, it has gone as low as $25.52, a decline of 43% and 33% below its IPO price of $38. (It closed Tuesday at $27.40.) The result in Palo Alto has been a flood of houses going on the market. It's a small set of data, but it tells a story of vastly changed seller psychology. Right now, there are 104 houses on the market -- more than double the number over the winter, according to numbers culled from the Multiple Listing Service. Even compared to last June, inventory is up 44%.

????In nearby Menlo Park, where Facebook's new headquarters are located, the trend is less pronounced. There are 103 houses currently on the market, up about 80% over the winter and nearly 20% more than a year ago.

????"Facebook gave me a gift in showing my sellers there's no sure thing and don't-look-a-gift-horse-in-the-mouth," says Michael Dreyfus, a prominent residential real estate broker based in Palo Alto. "The "make-me-move" prices -- where a seller says, 'I know my house is worth $5 million but if somebody pays me $10 million I'll take it,' are over due to the Facebook bomb."

????Dreyfus says sellers are realizing, as they always have in past run-ups, that things may get worse before they get better. "I wouldn't call it a panic," he says, "but it's a good dose of reality."

????One of his clients is a venture capitalist in his early 40s, looking to buy in the mid-range for Palo Alto homes: $3 million to $4 million. The VC had been outbid on several properties during the pre-Facebook frenzy, when asking prices could be a mere suggestion -- on the low end. The VC hoped for a lackluster Facebook IPO. He got it. Last week he excitedly emailed Dreyfus as well about the recent dearth in new high-tech IPOs. Both, the VC wrote, "may help us."

????When a VC is cheering on the return of apparent rationality, it's pretty clear that things have changed.