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????在與歐盟和國際貨幣基金組織簽署的救助協(xié)議中，為希臘設定的目標看起來并不是很苛刻——至少表面看起來是這樣。協(xié)議基本上要求希臘壓縮預算赤字，逐步實現(xiàn)預算盈余，有能力償付早已打折的負債，并為未來儲備資金。但即便要達到這樣有限的目標，希臘也需要進行一些極其痛苦的調整。這是因為無論從哪項指標來看，希臘經濟基本上都缺乏競爭力。比如，希臘出口有限，出口僅相當于GDP的21%。這些限制了流入該國的現(xiàn)金額，創(chuàng)造了龐大的貿易逆差。與此同時，希臘的薪資成本也極其缺乏競爭力。同樣的崗位，波蘭工人的薪資僅及希臘工人的一半。

????迄今為止，希臘只實施了救助協(xié)議所要求的150項措施中的77項。但對于新民主黨和泛希社運黨來說，困擾他們的并不是救助協(xié)議的條款——畢竟他們是當初在協(xié)議上簽字的人。真正困擾他們的是執(zhí)行協(xié)議到的時間表——所有預期中的調整都來得太快了。希臘經濟依然疲弱，依然缺乏競爭力，已經不堪一擊。鑒于22%的失業(yè)率以及未來兩年經濟預期負增長，我們可以確信救助條款肯定會調整。否則，希臘甚至很可能拿不出足夠的現(xiàn)金來支付很快到來的8月份本息償付。

????因此，曾作為希臘財長花費數月協(xié)商救助方案的、泛希社運的埃萬耶洛斯?韋尼澤洛斯建議，將希臘的實施時限往后推遲一年左右的時間，留出更多的喘息空間。但如果給了希臘喘息空間，德國可能會插手，因此新民主黨需要聰明地運用這段時間。它希望降低企業(yè)稅和增值稅來刺激消費。這樣做或許卓有成效，但也可能令希臘的損益表上出現(xiàn)更大的收入缺口。

????但是有一個領域不能給予希臘寬限，那就是私有化計劃。救助方案最初要求希臘通過出售國有資產，籌資500億歐元。迄今，它還只賣出了16億歐元的資產。薩馬拉斯表示，他正在致力于加快資產出售進程，希望能籌集到資金，改變希臘嚴重失衡的預算。歐盟或許能利用這種情形，允許救助時限后延，但條件是希臘要加快出售資產。

????近兩個月來，希臘大選讓歐洲市場陷于癱瘓，給歐元匯率帶來了巨大的壓力。隨著大選結束，歐洲終于能定下心來解決拖累歐元的其他事項。這些天來，西班牙銀行危機和意大利債務危機越來越岌岌可危，最終將需要歐元區(qū)成員國的全力關注。

????假如希臘再傳出什么無稽之談，顯然對誰都沒有好處。如果歐盟和國際貨幣基金組織能給希臘多一點時間來執(zhí)行救助協(xié)議，會讓這個過程減少一些痛苦。歐元區(qū)領導人本周末可能會商談歐元區(qū)財政聯(lián)盟事宜，在這個節(jié)骨眼上他們最不愿意操心的就是媒體和市場拿雅典的一些小問題小題大做。希望接下來幾周在這一關鍵性改革逐步清晰的過程中，希臘別再惹是生非。

????譯者：早稻米

????The goals that have been set for Greece in the bailout contract with the EU and the IMF don't look too demanding – at least on the surface. The agreement basically requires Greece to close its budget deficit and move to a surplus, allowing it to service its already discounted debt load and save for the future. But Greece will need to make some gut wrenching changes if it wants to meet even that modest goal. That's because Greece's economy is simply uncompetitive on nearly every metric. For example, its exports are limited, equating to just 21% of GDP. That limits the amount of cash flowing into the country and creates large trade imbalances. Meanwhile, its wage costs are extremely uncompetitive, with a worker in Poland requiring half has many euros to do the same job as a worker in Greece.

????The country has implemented only 77 of the 150 measures required of them in the bailout agreements. But for New Democracy and Pasok, it isn't the bailout terms that bother them - after all, they are the ones who signed off on them in the first place. No, what troubles them is the timeline – all the expected changes are coming on way too fast. Greece's economy remains too weak and uncompetitive to handle anymore strain. With 22% unemployment and negative economic growth projected for the next two years, you can bet that the terms of the bailout will be amended. If not, then Greece will most likely not have enough cash to meet its rapidly approaching August debt payment.

????As such, Pasok's Evangelos Venizelos, who as Greece's finance minister spent months negotiating the bailouts, has suggested pushing the timeline for Greek compliance back by a year or so to give the country some more breathing room. But if this breathing room is given to Greece, and it looks like Germany may be on board, New Democracy will need to use that time wisely. It wants to lower business taxes and the nation's value added tax (VAT) to spur consumption. That could be fruitful, or it could cause an even larger revenue gap to appear in the country's income statement.

????One area in which Greece should not be allowed to slack off would be on its privatization program. The bailout originally required Greece to raise 50 billion euros by selling of state-owned assets. To date it has only sold off 1.6 billion euros worth of stuff. Samaras says he is committed to accelerating this program as a way to raise revenue to balance the country's lopsided budget. The EU may be able to capitalize on this situation of this by agreeing to stretch out the bailout timeline in exchange for a rapid sell off of assets.

????The Greek elections managed to paralyze European markets for nearly two months while bringing incredible strain on the value of the euro. With the elections over, Europe can finally get serious about solving the other problems plaguing the common currency. The banking crisis in Spain and the debt crisis in Italy are looking increasingly bad these days and will eventually need the full attention by eurozone members.

????Further nonsense out of Greece is something that is in no one's best interest. As such, it may be less painful for the EU and the IMF to simply give Greece a little more time to implement the terms of the bailout. The last thing eurozone leaders need to worry about next weekend while drafting a possible fiscal union for the eurozone is some minor trouble in Athens that gets blown way out of proportion by the media and the markets. Hopefully Greece can behave itself for the next few weeks as this critical change takes root.